Coll foots play for Saturday ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
So nice to type those words. The greatest sport on Earth is back! I like
to watch it, bet it and eat the whole fucking house all at the same time
during it!
When last seen, yours truly was hitting every one of his bowl bets
(including some nice MLs) at the end of bowl season. This is the sport I
love, so it ain't too tough for me to track it. And unlike Phil Steele, I
actually do OK betting it.
Here we go ...
USC over $$$Va Tech$$$ by 9 - The media is a very powerful thing. It can
take a meaningless thing like splitting hairs over a war record and cause
a candidate to lose his lead to the most incompetent person on Earth. It
can cause coaches and managers to be fired. And in this case, it can gives
us a false perception of a team. That team is USC. Ever since the Trojans
split (not won) last year's title, the media has been jamming it down our
throats how good SC is. Edward will tell you how blown out of proportion
things are here in L.A. if you don't believe. The best part is, the USC
players have done nothing but it eat up. And that's great. Last year's
team was great! Two years ago, the Trojans were great. But that means shit
going into 2004. The Trojans have a ton of problems entering the season.
The media, and now oddsmakers because of it, have chosen to overlook it. I
mean that must be the case because there is no way this team should be
laying 18 points in what amounts to a road game amid a ton of distractions
and serious cluster injury.
The reason the line is this high has to be because of the last two things
people remember about these programs; USC's win over a great Michigan
squad. And conversely, VaTech's loss in a minor bowl while giving up a lot
of points to Cal. But how bad does giving a lot of points to Cal look now?
USC did it, too! How bad does it look considering VaTech's best players
were thinking NFL already?
I don't like Beamer laying points. I really don't like him period. But as
an underdog on a neutral/home field with a big crowd advantage and a
veteran QB and athletic defense, I will take my chances getting 18 any
day.
I know USC still has a top-notch defense. But I have to think the Hokies
cooky blitz schemes and decent talent on defense will cause USC problems,
too. Also, Beamer's teams always play great special i.e. blocked punts and
big returns. Something like that in this spot would be huge given the
cushion.
There is just no question in my mind that the situation favors VaTech
considerably more than it does USC. I think USC wins, but they have to
work for it. 18 is a lot of points between two quality programs.
I think the Trojans should feel happy if they get out of town alive after
finally getting the season started. Tech will have to give this thing away
to get beat by 20+ points. Looks like a tough game to me. This line, no
matter what, is out whack!
I think Eddie is right about the "low" but I am not one to jump into
lines after they've moved 10 points. Taking it one step further, if you
read between the lines why someone should bet UNDER, then you can start
building a case to bet the dog also. If this game goes low, VaTech stands
a great chance to cover.
to watch it, bet it and eat the whole fucking house all at the same time
during it!
When last seen, yours truly was hitting every one of his bowl bets
(including some nice MLs) at the end of bowl season. This is the sport I
love, so it ain't too tough for me to track it. And unlike Phil Steele, I
actually do OK betting it.
Here we go ...
USC over $$$Va Tech$$$ by 9 - The media is a very powerful thing. It can
take a meaningless thing like splitting hairs over a war record and cause
a candidate to lose his lead to the most incompetent person on Earth. It
can cause coaches and managers to be fired. And in this case, it can gives
us a false perception of a team. That team is USC. Ever since the Trojans
split (not won) last year's title, the media has been jamming it down our
throats how good SC is. Edward will tell you how blown out of proportion
things are here in L.A. if you don't believe. The best part is, the USC
players have done nothing but it eat up. And that's great. Last year's
team was great! Two years ago, the Trojans were great. But that means shit
going into 2004. The Trojans have a ton of problems entering the season.
The media, and now oddsmakers because of it, have chosen to overlook it. I
mean that must be the case because there is no way this team should be
laying 18 points in what amounts to a road game amid a ton of distractions
and serious cluster injury.
The reason the line is this high has to be because of the last two things
people remember about these programs; USC's win over a great Michigan
squad. And conversely, VaTech's loss in a minor bowl while giving up a lot
of points to Cal. But how bad does giving a lot of points to Cal look now?
USC did it, too! How bad does it look considering VaTech's best players
were thinking NFL already?
I don't like Beamer laying points. I really don't like him period. But as
an underdog on a neutral/home field with a big crowd advantage and a
veteran QB and athletic defense, I will take my chances getting 18 any
day.
I know USC still has a top-notch defense. But I have to think the Hokies
cooky blitz schemes and decent talent on defense will cause USC problems,
too. Also, Beamer's teams always play great special i.e. blocked punts and
big returns. Something like that in this spot would be huge given the
cushion.
There is just no question in my mind that the situation favors VaTech
considerably more than it does USC. I think USC wins, but they have to
work for it. 18 is a lot of points between two quality programs.
I think the Trojans should feel happy if they get out of town alive after
finally getting the season started. Tech will have to give this thing away
to get beat by 20+ points. Looks like a tough game to me. This line, no
matter what, is out whack!
I think Eddie is right about the "low" but I am not one to jump into
lines after they've moved 10 points. Taking it one step further, if you
read between the lines why someone should bet UNDER, then you can start
building a case to bet the dog also. If this game goes low, VaTech stands
a great chance to cover.
Comments
first game of the season just on principle alone), but I have to disagree
with you on one point. In no way would I consider USC's defense as being
"top-notch." Not only did they only rank 30th in total defense last year,
but they were 110th out of 117 schools in stopping the pass, and that was
with a great pass rush from Udeze and Nazel at end (who are both gone).
They also lose both corners, including all-conference starter Poole. They
will still be practically impossible to run against with 4 of the front 7
back, but they can definitely be had through the air.
All that said, this should play right into Randall's hand. I'm not so sure
about the under being a good indicator, because the Hokies will have to
fill the air with footballs to score, and we all know what Leinart can do.
Good luck with the play, but IMO, great defenses should be able to stop
both the run and the pass at least adequately.
very very subjective. There were quite a few games this team put away by
half or early in the third, and then things got crazy. The BYU game comes
to mind. And there were others, too, where the outcome was decided but the
Trojans gave up some numbers late.
Think back to the Michigan game in the Rose Bowl. They held a cranking
Michigan team to 7 points way into the second half. They sacked Navarre
nine or ten times. That proves the caliber of athlete and system this team
has/had. I wouldn't put a lot of stock into final overall numbers. When
push came to shove and the chips were on the line, USC's defense was
big-time. Like you said, I don't know if they maintain it losing Nazel or
Udeze, but the new starters are pretty highly thought of.
don't know about the BYU game being a good example. That was a 3-point
game with 7 minutes left. Hawaii did rack up some good yardage after the
game was no longer in doubt. Anyway, we may be splitting hairs, here. The
USC defense scored an inordinate amount of TD's last year, and set up
their offense in great field position numerous more times. If VaTech can
avoid that, they should be in great position to cover. Good luck with your
play!
I forgot to mention, this is a 1 1/2 unit play for me. Most of my plays
are a unit or 2 units. But I thought it might be cute to come with 1 1/2
unit plays this year. So that means I have $17.33 to make $15 on USC.