Coll foots plays for Saturday ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
Last week was a moderate winning week. Going 1-2 on my 2 unit plays
really hindered the process. I thought last week's card would be one of my
strongest of the season, but the big bets didn't work out. Conversely,
this week's slate sucks in comparison as there aren't many great bet or
sexy matchups.
$$$NC State$$$ over VaTech by 3 (2 units 1/2 unit ML) - It's going to take
more than a decent effort against USC to get me believing in this VaTech
team. After that game there was a knee-jerk reaction to believe the Hokies
are better than what they really are. By the same token, after last week's
debacle against Ohio State, everyone is off NCST. It's the old "last thing
the public remembers" dynamic in play. The bottom line is the NCST defense
is top-notch. It held Ohio State to under 140 yards of offense, which
isn't great in the sense that tOSU doesn't have a good offense, but it
does show the Pack wasn't pushed around either. If tOSU gets up two
scores on a team, then it's usually curtains because nobody can really
crack the Buckeyes defense especially when the pressure is on. So what
does that have to do with this week? Well, I think it's going to be
paramount in the Pack's head to not fall behind early and withstand in
early mo' the home team has so that this is a game for all four quarters.
It's not fair to judge the NCST offense off of last week's game. The QB is
much better than he showed, and the offense has some real talent in the
skill spots. VaTech is the team with much more to prove, alot of technical
angles support the Pack, and this one is going to be a nailbiter.
$$$Notre Dame$$$ over Washington by 27 - Cashed a nice ticket on the
UCLA-Wash over last week, and many of the concerns about this Washington
team from talent to experience to coaching were confirmed last week. If
your defense can't stop the run, ND is the last team you want to be
playing. The Irish have looked their best in the Willingham era when the
run game is cranking. It did well against both Michigan schools, and the
receivers are slowly starting to get into the mix, too. This Irish team
might be putting it together. The defense, we all know, is thrifty and
isn't going to have much trouble against a Huskies offense whose QB is
making his first road start and doesn't have much in the way of reliable
weapons around him. UW's ship is sinking and 11 actually looks kinda
cheap. Irish momentum keeps rolling.
$$$Michigan$$$ over Iowa by 28 - I can't say when I finally learn my
lesson with Michigan and Lloyd Carr. It might happen this week, but I
can't resist the temptation of betting against this Iowa offense while
people still think they're anywhere close to the past two editions. Iowa
has only one area of strength this season - its front seven. After that,
this team is pedestrian all over. If the Michigan offense is going to look
good or perform well, it's going to be at home. Henne looked a bit more
comfortable last week and the more the pass attack opens up, the better it
will be for points. There is simply no way for the Hawkeyes secondary to
keep with the Mish receivers, so this bet quite simply boils down to QB
execution. This is a monster revenge game for the Wolverines and I think
the Iowa season could start to snowball.
$$$Purdue$$$ over Illinois by 34 - Illinois just plain stinks. The Illini
are slow on offense and defense. Beutjer is inconsistent at QB, there is
no running game, and everyone on this team (including the lame duck coach)
just looks stuck in mud. Purdue is a real now team that's offense isn't
going to have any trouble scoring points. The defense, a concern entering
the season, has looked solid against lackluster competition. I believe the
Syracuse offense is a notch above the Illini's and Purdue didn't have any
trouble stopping it. Big 10 road opener should have the Boilermakers
excitied, and Tiller's boys have the look of a team to ride at the
windows.
$$$Michigan State$$$ over Indiana by 14 - Indiana showed its true colors
last week with my money riding on them. Not much has really changed
defensively as a bad KTuck offense did some embarrassing damage to the
Indy defense. That won't change in a week's times and I know that John L.
Smith, however subtle, is going to have the Spartans improving week by
week.
$$$Texas Tech$$$ over Kansas by 28 - In a game where 70 or more points are
likely to be scored, laying six isn't really a sweat. The bottom line
between these two teams is they basically do the same thing only Tech does
it better with better athletes. I have noticed something in recent
seasons, when the Tech offense gets rolling, you jump on. If TCU couldn't
keep up, then there is no way Kansas will. The Jayhawks proved last week
they won't have a defense when it counts. A Camry and a Lexus ES 300 are
essentially the same car, but which one would you take? Exactly, bet Tech.
$$$Ole Miss$$$ over Wyoming by 13 - I am not saying it will be pretty or
easy, but getting an SEC team in this range, one that played in the Cotton
Bowl no less the year before, against a struggling MWC team is a blind
lay. It's not like the Rebels are playing Utah. Wyoming is a better item
at home, but I don't think the Cowboys are dealing with nearly the ration
of talent as Ole Miss. The Rebs' slow start against better than you think
competition has created value.
$$$Washington State$$$ over Arizona by 14 - You watch, you wait, you'll
see, Wazzu is going to get better week by week. The fact the Cougs have a
come from behind win already this season in a road setting means there is
confidence for the still young offense to fall back on. Arizona might be
playing better defense, but the Cats still aren't scoring. That won't
change here, and I have the vibe last week's solid performance against
Wisky is more because of the Badgers struggling than a sign the Wildcats
are going to breakout.
no time to writeup the rest ... but here they are -
Penn State +3
Arizona State -7.5
really hindered the process. I thought last week's card would be one of my
strongest of the season, but the big bets didn't work out. Conversely,
this week's slate sucks in comparison as there aren't many great bet or
sexy matchups.
$$$NC State$$$ over VaTech by 3 (2 units 1/2 unit ML) - It's going to take
more than a decent effort against USC to get me believing in this VaTech
team. After that game there was a knee-jerk reaction to believe the Hokies
are better than what they really are. By the same token, after last week's
debacle against Ohio State, everyone is off NCST. It's the old "last thing
the public remembers" dynamic in play. The bottom line is the NCST defense
is top-notch. It held Ohio State to under 140 yards of offense, which
isn't great in the sense that tOSU doesn't have a good offense, but it
does show the Pack wasn't pushed around either. If tOSU gets up two
scores on a team, then it's usually curtains because nobody can really
crack the Buckeyes defense especially when the pressure is on. So what
does that have to do with this week? Well, I think it's going to be
paramount in the Pack's head to not fall behind early and withstand in
early mo' the home team has so that this is a game for all four quarters.
It's not fair to judge the NCST offense off of last week's game. The QB is
much better than he showed, and the offense has some real talent in the
skill spots. VaTech is the team with much more to prove, alot of technical
angles support the Pack, and this one is going to be a nailbiter.
$$$Notre Dame$$$ over Washington by 27 - Cashed a nice ticket on the
UCLA-Wash over last week, and many of the concerns about this Washington
team from talent to experience to coaching were confirmed last week. If
your defense can't stop the run, ND is the last team you want to be
playing. The Irish have looked their best in the Willingham era when the
run game is cranking. It did well against both Michigan schools, and the
receivers are slowly starting to get into the mix, too. This Irish team
might be putting it together. The defense, we all know, is thrifty and
isn't going to have much trouble against a Huskies offense whose QB is
making his first road start and doesn't have much in the way of reliable
weapons around him. UW's ship is sinking and 11 actually looks kinda
cheap. Irish momentum keeps rolling.
$$$Michigan$$$ over Iowa by 28 - I can't say when I finally learn my
lesson with Michigan and Lloyd Carr. It might happen this week, but I
can't resist the temptation of betting against this Iowa offense while
people still think they're anywhere close to the past two editions. Iowa
has only one area of strength this season - its front seven. After that,
this team is pedestrian all over. If the Michigan offense is going to look
good or perform well, it's going to be at home. Henne looked a bit more
comfortable last week and the more the pass attack opens up, the better it
will be for points. There is simply no way for the Hawkeyes secondary to
keep with the Mish receivers, so this bet quite simply boils down to QB
execution. This is a monster revenge game for the Wolverines and I think
the Iowa season could start to snowball.
$$$Purdue$$$ over Illinois by 34 - Illinois just plain stinks. The Illini
are slow on offense and defense. Beutjer is inconsistent at QB, there is
no running game, and everyone on this team (including the lame duck coach)
just looks stuck in mud. Purdue is a real now team that's offense isn't
going to have any trouble scoring points. The defense, a concern entering
the season, has looked solid against lackluster competition. I believe the
Syracuse offense is a notch above the Illini's and Purdue didn't have any
trouble stopping it. Big 10 road opener should have the Boilermakers
excitied, and Tiller's boys have the look of a team to ride at the
windows.
$$$Michigan State$$$ over Indiana by 14 - Indiana showed its true colors
last week with my money riding on them. Not much has really changed
defensively as a bad KTuck offense did some embarrassing damage to the
Indy defense. That won't change in a week's times and I know that John L.
Smith, however subtle, is going to have the Spartans improving week by
week.
$$$Texas Tech$$$ over Kansas by 28 - In a game where 70 or more points are
likely to be scored, laying six isn't really a sweat. The bottom line
between these two teams is they basically do the same thing only Tech does
it better with better athletes. I have noticed something in recent
seasons, when the Tech offense gets rolling, you jump on. If TCU couldn't
keep up, then there is no way Kansas will. The Jayhawks proved last week
they won't have a defense when it counts. A Camry and a Lexus ES 300 are
essentially the same car, but which one would you take? Exactly, bet Tech.
$$$Ole Miss$$$ over Wyoming by 13 - I am not saying it will be pretty or
easy, but getting an SEC team in this range, one that played in the Cotton
Bowl no less the year before, against a struggling MWC team is a blind
lay. It's not like the Rebels are playing Utah. Wyoming is a better item
at home, but I don't think the Cowboys are dealing with nearly the ration
of talent as Ole Miss. The Rebs' slow start against better than you think
competition has created value.
$$$Washington State$$$ over Arizona by 14 - You watch, you wait, you'll
see, Wazzu is going to get better week by week. The fact the Cougs have a
come from behind win already this season in a road setting means there is
confidence for the still young offense to fall back on. Arizona might be
playing better defense, but the Cats still aren't scoring. That won't
change here, and I have the vibe last week's solid performance against
Wisky is more because of the Badgers struggling than a sign the Wildcats
are going to breakout.
no time to writeup the rest ... but here they are -
Penn State +3
Arizona State -7.5