Coll foots plays for Saturday ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
Last week was highlighted by a nice two unit hit on NC State along with a
half unit on the ML. Trouble is, the rest of my plays, basically 1 unit
jobs, didn't too well. It was a mild winning week, but the problem seems
to be when my two units have good weeks, my 1 units tank. Or vice versa.
The show goes on ...
$$$West Virginia$$$ over Virginia Tech by 17 (2 units) - OK, whose offense
do you trust more? I think WestVa has the personnel and play calling to
move the ball on anybody. I can't say that about VaTech (even at home).
And don't be fooled, the Hokies defense isn't near past editions. I think
just how bad VaTech is was camoflauged a bit last week by how poor the
NCST offense was. A competent offense would have made it so VaTech was
never in position to win that game. But, I can't complain because its
created line value this week. Marshall and Harris should do damage and the
Moutaineer defense doesn't have to be much to contend with a stagnant
Hokies attack. Last year's result is an accurate gauge of the difference
between these two teams. If WestVa doesn't go in turning the ball over and
making stupid penalties, it can put VaTech to sleep with ease.
$$$Georgia$$$ over LSU by 14 (2 units) - The Tigers are not consistent
enough on offense to trust in a spot like this. Much has been made of the
struggles had by the UGa offense, but I don't too much stock into it. The
backfield is getting healthier, the offensive line is good, the QB is
steady enough and the receivers are awesome. This says nothing about the
Dawgs defense. I truly believe Georgia is one of the Top 5 teams in the
country. LSU was nothing special when losing at Auburn earlier this year,
and this will be a much tougher spot. Laying under a field goal with the
better team on its home field is too much to pass up for me.
$$$Georgia Tech$$$ over Miami by 3 (1 1/2 units and 1/2 unit ML) - Miami
is quite simply the most overrated team in the country. And for people to
betting this line up is ridiculous. When are people going to learn -
Berlin isn't going to pass this team to victory. It's not going to happen!
The running game is good, but nothing great. And the Canes defense is not
as good as the epic units of recent seasons, but it's still one of the
countries most athletic. The bottom line is that Miami is no juggernaut.
And, the Canes simply do not have the passing game i.e. gamebreakers at WR
nor passer to lay double digits on the road against a tough team.
Geo Tech has been great at home recently as a big dog. I like Ball's
athleticism against this defense and I prefer to view the Jackets as the
team that beat Clemson and not the one that struggled against UNC.
The Jackets are hardly outclassed, and at home, I say they win in what
won't be a shocker to me.
$$$Notre Dame$$$ over Purdue by 8 - Last week's Purdue defensive struggles
against Illinois really effected me. This team really couldn't make a
stop! Literally. On almost every Illini possession. I think the doubts
about Purdue's defense entering the season are very much well founded now,
but the public is clearly choosing to view this team in offensive terms
only. I admit the Boilers offense is good, but this is the toughest venue
they'll have played in year to date. The Irish have really looked strong
since the BYU loss. It's possible ND has put it together. What really
stands out to me was how after beating Michigan, this team went on the
road and worked MSU. MSU isn't any great shakes, but that win proves ND is
moving forward. The offense looked even better last week against UW. If ND
is running the ball and its defense is playing well, then why not take
this team at home getting points where it always plays much better. Wrong
money move on this game.
$$$South Carolina$$$ over Alabama by 10 - I have been waiting for USC to
win a game like this for the past few seasons. This is a good spot for the
Cocks because Bama's offense won't scare anybody and its defense isn't
that good either. USC is much more talented and if the Cocks can finally
put a good four quarters together, they should have an easier than
expected time.
$$$Oregon$$$ over Arizona State by 14 - This just looks like a classic
Oregon ambush spot. At home the Sun Devils are a different team. This ASU
defense is nothing special and for them to be in this price range isn't a
good thing when playing on fast surface in a hostile environment. Wade's
suspension really hurts the Devils and playing Iowa and OSU at home is
nowhere near playing Oregon in Eugene. This line is too cheap to pass up.
ASU is good, but you have to use them in the right spots. This isn't one
of them.
$$$Tennessee$$$ over Auburn by 11 - I am not about to trust this Auburn
offense on the road. Tennessee is doing the right thing - trusting its
offensive strength (RBs and OLine) and asking its defense to bend but not
break. Auburn can't play this game like Florida did - passing all over the
field. So that means the Tigers going to have to go in and beat Tennessee
at its game. Not going to happen. AU is bunch of underachievers, but
losing in this spot won't be considered a letdown to me because they
aren't nearly as talented as Tenn. The Tigers defense hasn't really been
tested on the road against a good offense, and the internal numbers from
the LSU game show they aren't worldbeaters. Good value with traditionally
tough home team.
half unit on the ML. Trouble is, the rest of my plays, basically 1 unit
jobs, didn't too well. It was a mild winning week, but the problem seems
to be when my two units have good weeks, my 1 units tank. Or vice versa.
The show goes on ...
$$$West Virginia$$$ over Virginia Tech by 17 (2 units) - OK, whose offense
do you trust more? I think WestVa has the personnel and play calling to
move the ball on anybody. I can't say that about VaTech (even at home).
And don't be fooled, the Hokies defense isn't near past editions. I think
just how bad VaTech is was camoflauged a bit last week by how poor the
NCST offense was. A competent offense would have made it so VaTech was
never in position to win that game. But, I can't complain because its
created line value this week. Marshall and Harris should do damage and the
Moutaineer defense doesn't have to be much to contend with a stagnant
Hokies attack. Last year's result is an accurate gauge of the difference
between these two teams. If WestVa doesn't go in turning the ball over and
making stupid penalties, it can put VaTech to sleep with ease.
$$$Georgia$$$ over LSU by 14 (2 units) - The Tigers are not consistent
enough on offense to trust in a spot like this. Much has been made of the
struggles had by the UGa offense, but I don't too much stock into it. The
backfield is getting healthier, the offensive line is good, the QB is
steady enough and the receivers are awesome. This says nothing about the
Dawgs defense. I truly believe Georgia is one of the Top 5 teams in the
country. LSU was nothing special when losing at Auburn earlier this year,
and this will be a much tougher spot. Laying under a field goal with the
better team on its home field is too much to pass up for me.
$$$Georgia Tech$$$ over Miami by 3 (1 1/2 units and 1/2 unit ML) - Miami
is quite simply the most overrated team in the country. And for people to
betting this line up is ridiculous. When are people going to learn -
Berlin isn't going to pass this team to victory. It's not going to happen!
The running game is good, but nothing great. And the Canes defense is not
as good as the epic units of recent seasons, but it's still one of the
countries most athletic. The bottom line is that Miami is no juggernaut.
And, the Canes simply do not have the passing game i.e. gamebreakers at WR
nor passer to lay double digits on the road against a tough team.
Geo Tech has been great at home recently as a big dog. I like Ball's
athleticism against this defense and I prefer to view the Jackets as the
team that beat Clemson and not the one that struggled against UNC.
The Jackets are hardly outclassed, and at home, I say they win in what
won't be a shocker to me.
$$$Notre Dame$$$ over Purdue by 8 - Last week's Purdue defensive struggles
against Illinois really effected me. This team really couldn't make a
stop! Literally. On almost every Illini possession. I think the doubts
about Purdue's defense entering the season are very much well founded now,
but the public is clearly choosing to view this team in offensive terms
only. I admit the Boilers offense is good, but this is the toughest venue
they'll have played in year to date. The Irish have really looked strong
since the BYU loss. It's possible ND has put it together. What really
stands out to me was how after beating Michigan, this team went on the
road and worked MSU. MSU isn't any great shakes, but that win proves ND is
moving forward. The offense looked even better last week against UW. If ND
is running the ball and its defense is playing well, then why not take
this team at home getting points where it always plays much better. Wrong
money move on this game.
$$$South Carolina$$$ over Alabama by 10 - I have been waiting for USC to
win a game like this for the past few seasons. This is a good spot for the
Cocks because Bama's offense won't scare anybody and its defense isn't
that good either. USC is much more talented and if the Cocks can finally
put a good four quarters together, they should have an easier than
expected time.
$$$Oregon$$$ over Arizona State by 14 - This just looks like a classic
Oregon ambush spot. At home the Sun Devils are a different team. This ASU
defense is nothing special and for them to be in this price range isn't a
good thing when playing on fast surface in a hostile environment. Wade's
suspension really hurts the Devils and playing Iowa and OSU at home is
nowhere near playing Oregon in Eugene. This line is too cheap to pass up.
ASU is good, but you have to use them in the right spots. This isn't one
of them.
$$$Tennessee$$$ over Auburn by 11 - I am not about to trust this Auburn
offense on the road. Tennessee is doing the right thing - trusting its
offensive strength (RBs and OLine) and asking its defense to bend but not
break. Auburn can't play this game like Florida did - passing all over the
field. So that means the Tigers going to have to go in and beat Tennessee
at its game. Not going to happen. AU is bunch of underachievers, but
losing in this spot won't be considered a letdown to me because they
aren't nearly as talented as Tenn. The Tigers defense hasn't really been
tested on the road against a good offense, and the internal numbers from
the LSU game show they aren't worldbeaters. Good value with traditionally
tough home team.
Comments
for the writeups.
plays as two wins or losses.
I am not a service. I just like to add some insight for those who are
trying to make up their minds. And then hopefully I can also read some of
what others are thinking.