Let me ask horse players a question

Produce

How can you post plays early in the day before you know the actual odds?


For example, if a horse is listed at 9:1 early in the morning before much
money comes in you post that you are playing that horse. I have to think
that at 9:1 he isnt the best horse in the field, so you are picking that
horse because of his "value"

so how can you post that you are playing that horse early in the morning
or the day before in the case of the wizard, before you know the actual
odds.


The difference between other sports and racing is that when you bet you
dont get those odds.


So if you bet the 9:1 instead of betting the 2:1 horse because you wanted
the "value." Well when the race goes off your horse is 6:1 and the
favorite went to 4:1 you didnt get the value horse. You actually are
making an incorrect bet with the reasoning that goes into it.


Am I correct?

Sweetness

I'm pretty green w/ the horses but i like to take a look at them on the
track. Very good question produce. i can't just read the #'s or go
strictly on PP's. I assume most of the horse players use TVG or HRTV
right? Very helpfull when you get to see the horse in the Paddock,etc.
I'd like to hear the experienced Players(Clueless,W2W,others)opinion.

brians

Dylan is exactly correct. You get what it went off at.

Morning lines are just a Morning line.

Ive seen horses that are 15-1 morning line go off as a favorite. 2-1

Produce

thats my point. How do these guys post the horses they are going to bet
early in the morning before they know the "actual" odds

gramps

Even if you're at the track and bet 15 minutes before the race, the odds
will not be what you bet at.

The morning line is a best guess scenario and will be adjusted with the
betting.
I use Bodog to checkout current odds and go from there.

brians

I have been to many a track and the odds change right up to post.

I actually remember betting the biggest dog at a very small track. I put
2000.00 to win on a 50-1 shot when the computer seen what i did the odds
went down to 6-5 Of course i was just testing things and when i said
cancell that bet the odds went back up to 40-1.

So its a post time thing.

Produce

but making a bet 5 minutes to post and 5 hours to post get your completely
different odds.


I dont disagree that you can bet 2 minutes before post time and when they
go off its a different number. But on large horse track with a good amount
of money going through them daily its not changing that much in the last 2
minutes like it is in the last 5 hours.

Hell, a prime example is the Wizard. He can post a 9:1 horse the night
before and when he goes off its 2:1 at best. But 2 minutes before post
time it was a hell of a lot closer to 2:1 than 9:1


see my point?

Wire2Wire

PRODUCE we can discuss this til we are blue in the face and still not
agree.Both sides of the question are valid.Just let me say that when I and
I think most horse players handicap odds enter only a small part of the
equation.There is speed,track conditions,breeding,jockeyand workouts to be
considered.The fluckuation of the odds is part of why it is called
gambling.I really hoppe this helps.Thank you for reading this.w2w

giraffe24

In my opinion, a 2-1 morning line horse whose odds climb to 6-1 before
post time offers no more value than a 6-1 morning line horse who gets
hammered down to 2-1. Only the winner of a race has value, which is why
experienced horse players tend to pick the horse that they think will win,
regardless of the odds.