MLB Road System...

LetItRide · July 2005

ROAD SYSTEM - (34.75) units San Diego (-193) - 5 Boston (-192) - 4 Atl/Philly UNDER 9' (+101) - 4 TB/Minny UNDER 9' (-117) - 2 Minnesota (-178) - 1

BigJoe · July 2005

good luck on saturday i thought you were up about 11 units the other day

Produce · July 2005

he was up around 10-11 units the first day he posted, but he is on the 5th game in one and 2 on the 4th game. Takes up a lot of units when you are laying the -190 on the 5th game.

sactojlm · July 2005

I know that you have cautioned that the MLB system is not for "pansy-ass tightwads", but what is the amount of "unit bankroll", as opposed to "money bankroll", you recommend for your MLB system? I know that you have previously suggested using a bankroll of double the amount of the absolute maximum you could afford to lose on one game. In playing your system on paper, and for ease of scoring, I used a 1 unit of $10 to win on each series, a $1000 maximum to be bet on any one game (hopefully, not before the 6th in the series), and thus a mythical $2000 bankroll. In playing your system this way, I played the LAD as the road team starting on 6/14 and bet these amounts to win 1 unit amount of $10: $11.20, $32.86, $71.90, $68.14, $101.09 and $190.45. On the sixth loss, I had wagered a total of $475.64 or 47.56 units. (I know that you personally switched to the White Sox in this series, playing against the Dodgers. I'm just going by the original system teams to play on or against listed by you back in April or whatever teams you currently specify daily--like the switch to the Angels.) On June 20, I started playing against Boston on the road and wagered these amounts to win $10: -$10.40, $21.42, $43.91, $90.87, $145.95, $361.26. On the sixth loss, I had wagered a total on the series of $673.81 or -67.38 units. (Again, someone on this board has stated that you play FOR, rather than AGAINST, Boston on the road. This may be true, but again, I'm just using the teams you listed to play on or against back in April to try the system to assess risk and bankroll requirements.) Currently, San Francisco is on the 5th game on the road. The amounts wagered to win $10 during the Arizona series was $8.62, $37.43 and $82.95. The amounts bet in the San Diego series rose dramatically to $355.84 (-256) yesterday and today is $984.73 (-199 currently at Pinnacle), which means that today I will have wagered a total of $1,469.57 to win $10 on this series. Another loss will undoubtedly bust the $2,000 bankroll as tomorrow's numbers will probably require a wager of over $3,000. Obviously, the accumulation of multiple 1 unit wins for all the winning series will help pad a bankroll for a losing series, especially the later they come during the season. But my paper following above shows that three busted series could potentially destroy a bankroll based on a conservative $10 unit win wager. Fortunately, on paper, I just throw a couple thousand more monopoly dollars in the kitty and play on. But for those playing for real, and risking to win far more than $10, what "unit bankroll" do you recommend to get through the whole season?

corvette · July 2005

you need to do something to kill your time. Do you have a job? Are you a self made millionaire and don't have to work?? I would like to know what you do for a living that gives you this much spare time. I would like to change careers to whatever it is you do. I would love to have the free time you do.

Produce · July 2005

hes probably a gambler just like me that wants to know everything before he just starts following someone blindly. He probably is asking questions not to pick on LIR, but rather to find out how things work. It seems stupid to bet $2000 to win $10, but thats the system, thats how it works. You rarely have to lay something crazy like that, but in the long run with the law of large numbers it all works out.

sactojlm · July 2005

First, yes, I am a self made, self-employed, millionaire. I am also very good at what I do. Second, I work between 40-60 hours per week and spend most free time with my family. I put God (and my church), country and family ahead of all else. Third, I would wager (and hard) that you have far more free time than me but that you make far worse use of that time.

sactojlm · July 2005

You're partially right, Produce. But I don't consider myself a gambler, but rather, an investor---and I consider sports gambling just in that light. I suspect that most members of this board are recreational gamblers. I am not. By way of example, I made what you could call two bets (investments) this week, but not in the area of sporting events. Yesterday, I made a $20,000 investment (call it a bet) against the current price of General Motors remaining the same by purchasing several put options. In other words, I'm investing in my belief, backed by research, that General Motors will drop in price between now and the time my options expire. If I'm wrong, I could lose most or all of that $20,000 investment. There is my research to back this up but for purposes here, let's just say that a 41% increase in the sales of GM cars last month (announced yesterday) helped in my decision to bet AGAINST GM. Another investment example, sports related. Earlier this week, I made a $3400 investment on a piece of cardboard with Mickey Mantle's picture on the front and some stats on the back. Why? Because my in depth research showed that piece of cardboard has a true market value of $10,000. But you're right. I've got no criticism whatsover with LIR but, if in giving examples of what can happen using this system and dissuade those who might risk rent money betting a system that they are unable to capitalize, I don't think LIR will have any problem with it. I don't make that many wagers on sporting events but I've always been intrigued by the thought of being profitable hitting 52% correctly with any event with 11/10 odds. Any system (or handicapper) that can beat those odds will grab my attention. LIR has obviously put a lot of time and research into this system and has already stated that MLB is more volatile a risk than NBA (he compared it to index funds vs. high tech IPO). And I assume he has a much better grasp on relative risk that someone who just started following that system a few weeks ago.

MLB Road System...

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