Weezurd's Major Stakes Plays

MrExacta · July 2005

Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, July 2nd, 2005 Belmont Park Race 7 - NEW YORK H. Belmont Park Race 7 - NEW YORK H. 1 1/4m (IT) Grade II 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $250,000. Post Time: 4:15 ET Race Synopsis With non-firm turf expected it is an advantage to have shown a fondness for such footing in the past. Wend may be the pacesetter by default in this field, but Finery and Muguet also figure to be close to the pace. Wonder Again and Riskaverse will probably be situated behind them, with Film Maker and Vallera bringing up the rear. If the pace is on the tepid side, as expected, it could compromise the late runners a bit. The Field from the rail out # Name ML 1 VALLERA 8/1 2 WEND 4/1 3 FILM MAKER 3/1 4 RISKAVERSE 5/1 5 FINERY 12/1 6 MUGUET 20/1 7 WONDER AGAIN 2/1 First Selection: (7) WONDER AGAIN (Toner James J/Prado E S) First off I'd like to comment that it's really great to see such top class turf mares as Riskaverse and Wonder Again back racing as 6-year-olds when they very easily could have gone to the breeding shed instead. Wonder Again won this race in her second start of 2004 after getting a 'prep' in the Just A Game on the Belmont Stakes undercard. She caught soft turf that day and romped home as a dominant winner. Things seem to be setting up perfectly for a repeat performance in 2005. She was clearly 'prepped' again in the Just A Game three weeks ago at a distance that's too short for her best. She was not hard asked at any point, yet rolled home strongly and galloped out well past the wire. She now stretches out to a better distance and is expected to get the softer footing that she absolutely adores. Trainer Jimmy Toner, who's having a great meet, couldn't be more pleased with how she's coming into this race, and her outstanding 5F bullet work over this turf course June 26 attests to her sharpness. She can stalk the pace today and should be able to make her run before that of main rival Film Maker. Second Selection: (3) FILM MAKER (Motion H Graham/Velazquez J R) This mare was my top selection in last year's BC Filly And Mare Turf, and she ran a great race to finish 2nd at 16-1 behind a champion filly. She showed steady progress all year leading up to that race, and she could be even better this year at age 5. In the past she wasn't at her best off layoffs, yet when she returned May 21 from a 7-month break she won at first asking. While today's field is tougher than that one, she's also expected to move forward off that race, as she did last year when making her second start off a similar layoff. She handles non-firm turf well, but is probably a bit better on firmer ground, according to a recent quote from her trainer, Graham Motion. Already a Grade 1 winner, she is expected to show her class today, and someone will have to work hard to beat her in this spot. Third Selection: (2) WEND (Mott William I/Bailey J D) This filly is certainly the wildcard in this race, entering with a perfect 4 for 4 record on turf. None of those wins have even held an anxious moment for her, as her average margin of victory has been almost 5 lengths. She gets tested for class today against a better field than she's faced thus far, and she'll also be racing at a longer distance than she has to date. Furthermore, she's never raced on anything but firm ground, and very hard ground at that, over some dry courses in Florida. Despite all of the question marks that surround her, she has a chance to wire this field if Jerry Bailey can slow the pace down. Bill Mott excels at stretching runners out in distance and he's winning at nearly 33% with his horses at this Belmont meet. Fourth Selection: (5) FINERY (Turner William H Jr/Fragoso P) Showed steady progress in the second half of last year, capped off by a game win in the G3 Athenia. She came off a 5-month layoff April 30 and picked up right where she left off, pulling off an upset in the G3 Beaugay on April 30. She may have been asked to run too far when returning in the G2 Sheepshead Bay at 11 furlongs here May 22, but note that she set the pace that day and was still on the lead after today's 10-furlong distance. Cutting back a furlong will help her today, and she could have improved stamina after that solid effort at 11 furlongs. She also handles non-firm ground. Wagering Strategy In a fairly small field we'll have to focus our wagering primarily on our top choice to win and to finish in the top spot in a trifecta. * A win bet on (7)WONDER AGAIN * Exacta 7-3, reverse for less * Trifecta: 7 over 2-3-5 over ALL = $15 for a $1 wager * Trifecta: 7 over 2-3-5 over 2-3-5 = $6 for a $1 wager * Trifecta: 7 over 3 over 1-2-5 = $6 for a $2 wager

Thistledown Race 11 - OHIO DERBY Thistledown Race 11 - OHIO DERBY 1 1/8m Grade II 3yo, Purse: $350,000. Post Time: 4:45 ET Race Synopsis Straight Line and Pinpoint appear to be the main speed. Either one will insure an honest pace. There are nice mixture of speed types, stalkers, mid pack runners and closers, which will allow all horses to have a good chance to perform at their best. Thistledown can sometimes be speed favoring, but more importantly it can be a deep and tiring surface, somewhat like Calder, where horses who have a good foundation and are fit for this race, usually perform best. The Ohio Derby usually features 3 year olds, who have proven at this point of the year, to be a cut below the very best 3 years old colts in the US. This year's renewal is no different. The Field from the rail out # Name ML 1 UNBRIDLED ENERGY 4/1 2 MAGNA GRADUATE 5/2 3 SILVER HAZE 12/1 4 IT'S TIME TO SMILE 15/1 5 PALLADIO 6/1 6 STRAIGHT LINE 6/1 7 PINPOINT 7/2 8 HAL'S IMAGE 6/1 First Selection: (2) MAGNA GRADUATE (Pletcher Todd A/Stevens G L) Magna Graduate returns off a 49 day layoff making his first start for last years eclipse award winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Pat Byrne had been his previous trainer. Pletcher is an outstanding horseman who does an excellant job improving horses when they are switched to his barn. He is almost in the same league as Bobby Frankel who is the best at winning races right off the trainer change. Magna Graduate has always had ability but has not yet broken through as one of the top 3 year olds in the country. The Ohio Derby is an excellant start to being this progression. His best career race was last time out in the Lone Star Derby, a race in which he sustained a nice closing rally to run fourth, beaten 3 lengths. He was hindered by a tough outside post and a very wide trip throughout. He had similar wide trips in his prior 3 outings. In the Ohio Derby Magna Graduate draws a perfect inside post with top rider Gary Stevens aboard for the 2nd straight time. Stevens got a chance to familiarize himself with this colt in the Lone Star Derby. The fact that he is willing to take the mount once again shows he has confidence that Magna Graduate can win the Ohio Derby. He figures to lay up closer to the early pace than he was last time out. Magna Graduate has been working steadily at Belmont Park. I like the fact that Pletcher has been stretching him out in distance in his morning drills, progressing from 4f workouts to 6f works in his last 2 drills. This workout regiman should insure that he will be plenty fit to tackle the 1 1/8 mile distance. Magna Graduate has more earnings than any in this field and stands a good chance to add to these totals with a victory in this years Ohio Derby. Expect Magna Graduate to be equipped with mud caulks and bend shoes which Pletcher loves to use, especially over a deep and sometimes tiring racecourse like Thistledowns. Second Selection: (5) PALLADIO (Attfield Roger/Dos Ramos R A) Palladio was clearly meant for distance racing as illustrated by the steady improvement he has made since being stretched out from a sprint in his debut followed by 6 straight 2 turns races. He has handled dirt, grass, wet tracks, dry surfaces and shipping from Canada to the US and back to Canada. He faced my 2nd selection Unbridled Energy in a Gr 3 stake 2 starts back at Woodbine, a race in which he was a fast closing 3rd after rallying wide in the stretch. Palladio came back to run his best career race in his last start when he easily won a stakes at Woodbine stretching out to Saturday's 1 1/8 mile distance. A major factor in his favor is that he is the only horse in the Ohio Derby field who has a win at the distance. He is versatile enough to rate behind the speed or take back further off the pace to launch a stretch rally. Regular rider Dos Ramos comes in from Canada for the mount. Third Selection: (1) UNBRIDLED ENERGY (Walden W Elliott/Migliore R) Continues to show steady progress with racing experience and stretching out from sprints to routes. Versatile grey colt has shown the ability to force the pace from the outset or take back, relax and rate in good striking position. With new rider Richard Migliore flying in from New York for the mount, expected Unbridled Energy to sit a perfect stalking trip from his good rail position. Drawing post 1 will also allow Migliore to save valuable ground throughout. Unbridled Energy ships in from Churchill Downs after running a troubled 2nd behind the quality colt Don't Get Mad 14 days ago in a Gr 3 stake. He was victimized by being bumped hard at the start and fanned out extremely wide into the lane. Continued very wide the length of the long Churchill Downs stretch. He is bred to handle Saturday's 1 1/8 mile distance for Elliot Walden who is soon to retire from training and become the racing manager for WinStar Farms who owns this colt. Fourth Selection: (7) PINPOINT (Zito Nicholas P/Melancon L J) When a quality horse has good early speed he must always be respected, especially when that horse comes from a top barn. Pinpoint ships in from New York for recently inducted hall of fame trainer Nick Zito. The main question is not Pinpoint's ability to win the Ohio Derby, but how he will perform breaking from an outside post with blinkers removed. In all 3 career wins he has worn the hood. Trainer Zito is pretty strong with the blinkers off move, but there is other speed to his inside which may force rider Melancon to stalk the pace. Pinpoint could also clear to the lead which would make him very dangerous in this spot. You can safely draw a line through his dead last effort, beaten 34 lengths, in the Belmont Stakes. Once he quit on a pressured pace midway down the backstretch, rider John Velazquez just wrapped up on him. Strong improving victories in his prior 3 starts. In 2 of those wins, Larry Melancon was aboard, so he is familiar with Pinpoint. This is a major opportunity for Melancon to win a major race, a chance which does not come up often for him. Expect Pinpoint to wear mud caulks and bend shoes to give him more traction on a deep and usually tiring racing surface. Wagering Strategy * A win bet on (2)MAGNA GRADUATE * Trifecta: 2 over 1-5-7 over ALL = $18 for a $1 wager * Trifecta: 2 over 1-5-6-7 over 1-5-6-7 = $12 for a $1 wager * Trifecta: 1-5-7 over 2 over 1-5-6-7 = $9 for a $1 wager

Belmont Park Race 9 - SUBURBAN H. Belmont Park Race 9 - SUBURBAN H. 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $500,000. Post Time: 5:20 ET Race Synopsis Record Buster will shoot right out to the front from his good rail post. Offlee Wild and Funny Cide with take up the chase. Pollard's Vision will race just behind the tracking pair. The rest of the field will race from off the pace. The pace figures to be at least an honest one and pick up steam as the field reaches the far turn. 1 1/4 miles at Belmont starts on a turn, so inside tacitcal speed and positioning is important. The main track at Belmont has been playing fair all week. The Field from the rail out # Name ML 1 RECORD BUSTER 6/1 2 RUNAWAY RUSSY 30/1 3 POLLARD'S VISION 5/2 4 OFFLEE WILD 3/1 5 FUNNY CIDE 7/2 6 EVENING ATTIRE 8/1 7 TAP DAY 15/1 8 SIR SHACKLETON 8/1 First Selection: (5) FUNNY CIDE (Tagg Barclay/Bailey J D) I selected Funny Cide to win his last 2 starts off the layoff. Because of this I have watched him very closely and feel that he is ready to run his best race this year in his third start off the bench. Why is the Wizard going to the well one more time? In his return race at Pimlico in the Gr 1 Pimlico Special, Funny Cide chased a hot pace along a deep inside. He was not abused late when beaten and it was obvious he was in need of that effort. In the Gr 2 Brooklyn Handicap Funny Cide raced further off the pace than I expected. Midway on turn when he began his rally, Funny Cide was checked hard between horses. This took any foward momentum that he was mustering up. Funny Cide began falling back a bit until Jose Santos yanked him to the outside. He never really got into the race down the stretch but the fact that he was able to finish up evenly without much urging in the late stages, indicating to me that I could throw this race right out. Funny Cide has accomplished too much in his career not to give him another chance, especially against this very average field he faces in the Suburban. He is the type of horse that usually gets overbet because of sentimental reasons, but on Saturday I think his price will be in line with his chances. Funny Cide loves Belmont Park and he can certainly handle the 1 1/4 mile distance. I felt the ride Jose Santos gave him in the Brooklyn was worthy of a rider change. He will be ridden by Jerry Bailey for the 1st time in the Suburban which is a switch in riders I like. Expect Funny Cide to be in the hunt right from the start. I expect he will attack Record Buster on the far turn. I am hoping Funny Cide does not have to work too hard to get by that one which will allow him to have some enrgy left for a contentious stretch run. Second Selection: (3) POLLARD'S VISION (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R) This one eyed horse has been a model of consistancy throughout his career. He is made of hickory and nothing ever seems to bother him. Here is an amazing statistic. In 21 career starts he has raced at 15 different race tracks which is a record that is almost impossible to fathom. Because of having just one eye, Pollard's Vision prefers to race outside of horses but if faced with an inside rally, he can overcome it. He has excellant tactical speed to be positioned perfectly in the early running of the race. One thing that is interesting is that in all his accomplishments he has never strung 2 winning races together. This pattern holds well for Saturday as he is coming off a 2nd place finish. Another amazing fact is that he is stabled at Belmont Park but has only raced over his home track once and that was in his career debut back in early July of 2003. I am certain Pollard's Vision will play a major part in the final outcome of the Suburban. My only concern with him is that he has only tried this 1 1/4 mile distance once and that was in last years Kentucky Derby, a race that was clearly a throw out. He is bred more for shorter distances, but that should not stand in his way in the Suburban. Pletcher's main go to rider John Velazquez is back aboard. Third Selection: (4) OFFLEE WILD (Rodriguez Juan A/Prado E S) Offlee Wild will be making his 1st start for Juan Rodriguez who is deputizing for Richard Dutrow Jr while Dutrow serves out a suspension. Rodriguez has been filling in very well, winning at 26 % at the current Belmont meet. You can put a line through Offlee Wild's last race, when he was beaten badly over the slop at Pimlico. He raced wide throughout and simply could not handle the footing. He has been a sharp and consistant performer in his prior 4 starts switching barns to Dutrow. Offlee Wild has excellant tactical speed and when he is hooked, he relishes a heated battle. The main question for him on Saturday is the 1 1/4 mile distance. I feel he is at his best at shorter distances but on his best race against this type of field, he should prove very dangerous. The red hot riding Edgar Prado is back aboard. Fourth Selection: (1) RECORD BUSTER (Frankel Robert J/Castellano J J) You must always respect a sharp and improving horse in the barn of Bobby Frankel. Record Buster fit's the bill. To win the Suburban, it would be more a matter of training wizadry than what would be expected from a horse with only 3 career starts, 1 route race, having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles and having never won nor competed in a stakes race. If this was the scenario for any other trainer in America, Record Buster would be a complete throwout. This is not the case running for Frankel. He will be the controlling speed from a perfect inside post. When you have speed and you draw the rail at the 1 1/4 mile distance, you get the lead without much urging because the race starts midway on the first turn. If you have no speed you are hung out wide racing onto the backstretch, placing you at a tactical disadvantage. Record Buster is bred to handle the distance. He is 2 for 2 at Belmont and 3 for 3 lifetime. He is toting a light 113 Lbs after carrying no less than 122 in his career. Wagering Strategy * A win and place bet on (5)FUNNY CIDE * Exacta boxes 5-3, 5-4 * Smaller exacta box 5-1

Monmouth Park Race 9 - UNITED NATIONS S. Monmouth Park Race 9 - UNITED NATIONS S. 1 3/8m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $750,000. Post Time: 5:28 ET Race Synopsis With rain continuing on and off through Friday, the condition of the turf course is expected to be less than firm, so horses who are proven over non-firm footing will hold an advantage. The pace of this race is expected to be an honest one, with Shake The Bank entered as a 'rabbit' for Better Talk Now and Spruce Run already an established front runner. That should give the stalkers and closers a fair chance if they are good enough, and I expect them to be. The Field from the rail out # Name ML 1 BETTER TALK NOW 3/1 2 GUNNING FOR 12/1 3 COOL CONDUCTOR 8/1 4 REQUEST FOR PAROLE 5/1 5 LICENSE TO RUN 9/2 6 SILVERFOOT 6/1 7 EXTERIOR 4/1 8 SHAKE THE BANK 50/1 9 NAVESINK RIVER 8/1 10 SPRUCE RUN 20/1 First Selection: (5) LICENSE TO RUN (Frankel Robert J/Valenzuela P A) This 5yo horse has the ability and the right connections to win this race, but his ability to do so may lie more in the current condition of his head than in the might of his body. He was a Group 1 winner going a mile and a half on turf in Brazil, and he probably also should have won the G1 Hollywood Turf Cup when making his U.S. debut off a 6+ month layoff on December 4. However, in that race he was very hard to control, and when he fell back to dead last on the far turn he appeared to be done for the day. However, he then circled his field and finished like a rocket to miss by just a neck. He was his own worst enemy that day, and was so once again when he returned Jan 22 with an almost non-existant effort in the G2 San Marcos. Based on just those two efforts I'd be hesitant to select License To Run to win today, but when he returned Feb 19 in an off-the-turf race, he seemed like a much more professional and controlled animal. He was allowed to go to the lead by new rider Pat Valenzuela, and the pair were never threatened while winning easily. Frankel has had 4+ months since then to work further with License To Run, and the fact that he ships him across the country for this race, along with Pat Valenzuela, speaks highly for his belief in this horse's chances today. There's no doubt that License To Run has the physical ability to win this race, and if Frankel has gotten him to calm down, as I suspect, then he has a great chance today at expected fair odds. Second Selection: (1) BETTER TALK NOW (Motion H Graham/Dominguez R A) This gelding was quite an unexpected surprise in the turf division last year, winning two Grade 1 races, including the BC Turf. Both of those major wins came over 12 furlongs and over softer footing, so we know that Better Talk Now is more than qualified to win over today's 11-furlong distance regardless of whether the turf is firm or soft. Graham Motion doesn't crank up his horses off of layoffs, yet Better Talk Now was still fit and game enough to win the G3 Fort Marcy off a 4-1/2 month break to begin his 2005 campaign. Expected to move forward in the G2 Dixie on May 21, he was compromised by a crawling pace and was also forced to steady on the far turn. Not the most consistent horse in the world, Better Talk Now has shown in the past that he can rebound from disappointing efforts with winning races, and he has a big chance to do so again today. He should get an honest pace to rally into and will benefit more than most by the expected non-firm ground. Third Selection: (3) COOL CONDUCTOR (Nicks Ralph E/Velasquez Cornelio) This 4yo son of Group 1 turf sprint winner Stravinsky is just now coming into his own, and could be good enough to win a Grade 1 race such as this. He was very impressive May 21 when outdueling favored Artie Schiller in the G2 Dixie over non-firm ground similar to what he may encounter today, and that win was flattered when 3rd place finisher Good Reward returned to win the G1 Manhattan recently. Cool Conductor won that race at 11-1 for his second graded stakes win, but can he handle this longer trip? He's never raced beyond 1-1/4 miles, and even then he tired in the late going. He projects to sit a stalking trip mid-pack, but he'll have to outrun the sprint influence of sire Stravinsky if he's to win this race. Fourth Selection: (6) SILVERFOOT (Stewart Dallas/Albarado R J) Up and coming 5yo has won both prior career starts at today's 11-furlong distance, with those wins coming in back to back runnings of the G3 Louisville at Churchill Downs. One of those wins also came over yielding ground, so the expected conditions today should be to his liking. He's making his third start following an 8-month layoff and has a chance to run his winning streak to three if he shows further improvement. Regular rider Robby Albarado ships in for this gelding's biggest race to date. Wagering Strategy With a fair price expected on our top choice we'll make a win wager, along with a couple of exotics bets that also include Better Talk Now on top. * A WIN bet on (5)LICENSE TO RUN * Exacta box 1-5 * Trifecta: 1-5 over 1-3-5-6 over 1-2-3-5-6-7-9 = $30 for a $1 wager

bixler · July 2005

Thanks pal! Good luck today

clueless · July 2005

Thanks E! EOM

bixler · July 2005

7th at Belmont - Scratch 1-Vallera 9th at Belmont - No changes 9th at Monmouth - No changes

Weezurd's Major Stakes Plays

Comments