SoCalGuy Hollywood American Oaks Day 2005

MrExacta · July 2005

Hollywood Park Handicap Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Hollywood Park Sunday July 3, 2005 - AMERICAN OAKS DAY!!! Today?s Action from Hollywood Park: I will play and highlight races 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. In addition, I will put in $16 into a Pick 3 (Races 7-9) and another $16 into a Pick 3 (Races 8-10) centered around our BEST BET OF THE MEET! Race 6: G2 American Invitational Handicap, 1-1/8 Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up (5) FOURTY NINERS SON (12-1): Makes his Graded Stakes debut on Sunday and this rapidly improving colt has the type of late kick that will make him a perfect fit at square price of morning line. The Distorted Humor colt has yet to finish out of the money in all five starts on the turf including his latest three victories. He came off a four-month layoff on April 17 and won by neck but did so against the grain of crawling early fractions illustrating a fine turn of foot covering his final quarter of a mile in a snappy 22.68-seconds. He showed he is adaptable to any distance when he cut back to one-mile in his next start and had to take three-to-four wide journey through the far turn and into the stretch and rallied past the beleaguered pacemaker to win by a half-length covering his final quarter of a mile in a quick 23.19-seconds. In his last start, he was bobbled up behind horses through the turn awaiting patiently for his bid, angled out nicely, and unleash a explosive burst of late speed to go past his stable mate Grafton to win by a measured three-quarter of a length. Undefeated this year and over this Inglewood turf course, gets the services of Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey and with a trainer adept in preparing sharp allowance runners for Graded Stakes (example Red Fort), I look for this half brother to G1 winner Cindy?s Hero to continue in his mint form at a price that will be fair to compensate for the risk. (1) WHILLY (5-1): This reliable and consistent colt ended last year with a sharp win in a minor stakes on opening day of the Santa Anita meeting and parlayed that with a win in the G2 San Marcos at 1-¼-miles before shipping to the United Arab of Emirates for the Group One Dubai Duty Free where he ran a winning race in defeat to the pacesetting winner Elstroem. After that terrific effort, he was sent off as the longest price on the board in the G1 Shoemaker Mile on Memorial Day and ran a better than looked fifth in a race where the top three finishers rallied from sixth-fifth-seventh after the first half-mile. Sitting patiently behind early leaders, this bay Sri Pekan colt was moved prematurely into a very hot pace to duel Special Ring and favored Singletary through fractions of 46.98 and 1:09.76-seconds. He duel with the latter into mid-stretch before giving way in a race he needed any ways. This Group One runner-up returns in a race with a favorable pace scenario where he can utilize his tactical speed and could be tough to overhaul at a hint of a price for the meet?s leading trainer Doug O? Neil. (2) KING OF HAPPINESS (9-5): Trainer Neil Drysdale trains our top choice, Fourty Niners Son, but also trains this Spinning World horse who will likely be your post time favorite. The early speed that he used to defeat stable mate and subsequent G1 Charlie Whittingham runner-up, Red Fort, in the G3 Inglewood was not seen last time out because of a trouble start. He was bumped soundly by Whilly forcing him to shuffle back at the break and sat in the rear behind a suicidal three horse battle through breath taking fractions. He skimmed the rail into the lane was out finished by the winner while three-lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Reunites with the rider that was aboard for his lone win this year should get first run on Whilly if he tires, but then must overcome the charge of his stable mate?s effective late punch. (6) FAST AND FURIOUS (2-1) Second choice on the morning line ran in the G1 Shoemaker Mile as a prep for longer race and got exactly what he needed with a useful third-place effort. However, this highly regarded four-year old has yet to win in more than a year and he has been bothered by feet aliments. In addition, the fast pace that aided his late charge will not be in existent. Wagering Strategies: Play the (5) FOURTY NINERS SON to WIN and PLACE Main Exacta Boxes: 5-1 and 5-2 Race 7: Allowance NW2/Optional Claiming $62,500, 7-½ Furlongs, Three-and-up (12) SPELLBINDER (8-1): Winless in three starts this year, his first two starts where on the turf where he showed no affinity finishing off the board in both efforts including splitting a ?key? race field on March 13 where the winner and the sixth-place finisher returned to win. He returned to the main track last time out and finished a solid second in a highly rated affair won by Triple Bend candidate Saint Buddy earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is par for this class level. He chased the loose on the leader pacemaker while racing between rivals down the backstretch, raced along side a rival on the turn, put in his bid, and was clearly second best behind the runaway winner while two-lengths ahead of the favorite Tiz Only Money. He stretches out an additional half furlong to a distance that he has tasted defeat only once in three tries and should sit a clear pace prompting trip breaking from the outermost post under Corey Nakatini. With two works under his belt and returning to his preferred distance I expect this Tale of the Cat colt to improve at a square price and being drawn towards the outside will allow jockey Corey Nakatini to use this colt?s tactical speed to its maximum. (1) CHIEF PLANNER (5-1): This horse was primed to deliver a promising sophomore campaign in the spring of 2003. After a useful runner-up effort in his three-year old debut, he stretched out to 1-1/8 miles for the first time in the Snow Chief Stakes and delivered a smashing performance that stamped this General Meeting horse as one of the elite of his generation. He showed excellent positional early speed to be forwardly placed up close, slipped through the along the inside to take over the lead midway on the far turn, and proceeded to draw off under a hand ride to win by seven widening lengths earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is par for this class level. However, hopes of starting him in that year?s Affirmed Handicap were dismissed when he was sidelined with strained suspensory. Not only did he miss the rest of the year but also the entire 2004. He returned from more than a year layoff on June 4 and finished sixth beaten 6-¾-lengths by the streaking Keep on Punching in a highly rated affair but he showed signs that he is in form and earned a Beyer Speed Figure that suggest he can move forward in second start. He was extremely eager early pulling against his rider and was moved prematurely to duel between Keep on Punching and El Elogiado through solid fractions for six furlongs. He remained in the hunt to mid-stretch before tiring. He has bounced back with two brisk 6F works in the interim and is reunited with David Flores who was aboard for all two of his horse?s victories. Breaking from the beneficial rail, I expect him to be forwardly placed on the cut back and conditioning he receive last time out should be on display on Sunday. (9) SUNSET PLACE (7-2): He has been stuck at this level for quite some time and has lost as the beaten favorite five times and it appeared that he had broken through his slump when he returned from over a six month layoff on June 8 to register his first win in more than year. He prompted the pace while three wide chasing the early leaders, challenge for the lead on the turn and into the stretch, took the lead, and brushed with a rival as he reached for the wire to win by a nose only to be disqualified for bumping a rival towards mid-stretch. This half brother to G1 winner Affluent has had his case of bridesmaid efforts with ten combined seconds or thirds from fourteen starts and that might be the cause of a lack of winning spirit as he tried to pull himself up in that June 8 disqualification. (8) EL DON (6-1): Stretches an out additional sixteenth of a mile to the distance of his runner-up effort in the April 24 TizNow Stakes on California Gold Rush day. In that race, he trailed a blistering early pace and finished a solid second rallying against the grain of a intense speed bias. Reunites with Gary Stevens who was aboard for that runner-up try and has shown an affinity for the Inglewood main track. Wagering Strategies: Play the (12) SPELLBINDER to WIN Main Exactas: 12-1 and 12-9. Small reverse for each Small Exacta: 12-8. No reverse Race 8: G1 American Oaks, 1-¼ Miles Turf, Three-year old fillies (6) LUAS LINE (12-1): This bay three-year old Danehill filly has registered only a maiden victory in six starts but there is do doubt that she belongs in this field considering her accomplishments thus far in her three-year old campaign. With only a Group Two runner-up effort as a two-year old behind Silk and Scarlet, she made her seasonal debut in an ambitious spot: Group One Irish 1000 Guineas where she was sent off at 20-1 and ran on smartly to be a sharp third earning a Time form rating that makes her competitive in this field and finishing ahead of English 1000 Guineas winner Virginia Waters and finishing ahead of Maids Causeway who returned to win the Group One Coronation Stakes at Ascot meeting in her next start. She returned three weeks later in the Group Three Jersey Stakes taking on males versus a twenty-one horse field and did not disgrace herself rallying from far back in that bulky field to finish fifth behind a promising European miler in Proclamation who has won three of four starts in his career with one defeat. Her trainer, David Wachman, who is having a breakthrough year having trained Group Stakes winners Fracas and Indesatchel indicated that she is best over firm ground and will get that that surface on Sunday. After running competitively versus some of the best European three-year old fillies, she gets some relief away from them and has room to improve in only her third start of this year with leading jockey Rene Douglas in the irons. (3) THATSWHATIMEAN (30-1): The preferred running style of the majority of the entrants in this year?s American Oaks is to lay mid-pack or run from the rear and that could cause traffic for others but not for this Belong to Me filly who projects for an uncontested lead from the start and runaway from this field at 30-1 on the morning line. The winner of the China Doll Stakes earlier in the year, she returned from that effort with two fine third place efforts in the Providencia and Senorita where she was up against a stiff speed bias in the latter event. This half to the illfated Atswhatimtalknabout was equipped with blinkers for the first time in the June 5 G2 Honeymoon BC Handicap and showed signs that she is headed in the right direction with a promising runner-up effort behind the favored opportunistic closer Three Degrees in a race that saw the first and third place finishers rally from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. She dueled between rivals into the first turn and was able to secure command of the lead through respectable fractions of 23.46 and 47.25-seconds. The rivals that chased were unable to keep up with this fleet filly as they tired to finish seventh and twelfth as this dark bay filly opened up a clear lead from the rest of her rivals entering the stretch and was only worn down in the final sixteenth of a mile by the favored winner earning a Beyer Speed Figure that par for this race. She has bounced back with four more works and is intent for the lead after blowing out a half-mile two days that was the fastest 28 at the distance. David Flores who was aboard for this fillies maiden victory is back aboard and if allowed to dictate a much softer early tempo she could easily put this field to sleep and say come catch me if you can at box car odds in your exotics. (5) MELHOR AINDA (2-1): Morning line favorite will get tested for the first time as she leaves Belmont Park for only the second time but there is no doubt that she belongs in this field as she fits all the qualifications. She earned a Beyer Speed Figure in her G3 Sands Point win that is above par for this race (Beyer par is 95) and has done so twice and her figure was verified when the runner-up returned to crush Allowance NW1 on June 24 at Belmont Park. In addition, her class is not at fault having won two stakes and a Grade 3 in her last start making her fit from a class stand point. She inherits an excellent turn of foot as she displayed in her last start when she swallowed up the leader with ease through a final three-eighths of a mile in under 35 seconds. The only question is whether taking a price below or about 2-1 is worth the risk. (11) THREE DEGREES (7-2): Her two efforts thus far around two turns were excellent and the extra eighth of a mile or 13-horse field should not pose a problem as she defeated this number of entrants in the G2 Honeymoon last time out earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is above par for this race. In that event, she took up sharply behind horse?s heels into the first turn, out run early, began passing rivals around the turn, and rallied past our top choice only in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by a length covering her final three-eighths in 35.38-seconds. In the G3 Senorita she was up against a stiff speed bias that aided the front running winner covering her final quarter of a mile in 22.90-seconds. The extra eighth of a mile should not pose a problem as she gets Hall of Fame rider Jerry Bailey in the irons. Wagering Strategies: Play the (3) THATSWHATIMEAN and (6) LUAS LINE to WIN Superfecta part-wheel: 6 / 3 / 5-7-11-12-13 / 5-7-11-12-13 = $25 for a $1 Wager Superfecta part-wheel: 6 / 5-7-11-12-13 / 3 / 5-7-11-12-13 = $25 for a $1 Wager Superfecta part-wheel: 6 / 5-7-11-12-13 / 5-7-11-12-13 / 3 = $25 for a $1 Wager Race 9: G1 Triple Bend Invitational Handicap, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and up (14) UNFURL THE FLAG (6-1): Has started only twice this year and this five-year old California-bred has a chance to either use his binding early speed to steal this race on the front end and run them ragged or use his tactical speed to sit a pace prompting trip on or near the front end at a price that will be more than fair to risk. He made his first start off a one-year hiatus on March 20 and finished third in a race he bobbled sharply at the start losing all chance in a race he needed anyways. He returned four weeks later in the Tiz Now stakes on California Gold Rush program with the blinkers off and turned in a smashing performance to score the upset 5-1 in a race where he benefited from a strong speed-bias that flattered his 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He dueled through break neck early pace with long shot Grand Appointment through breathtaking fractions of 21.63 and 43.92-seconds. The second fastest opening quarter and half-mile fractions on the card took its toll on the latter as tired to finish tenth and last, but Unfurl the Flag kicked clear to win going away leaving his field well strung out and the validity of that figure was confirmed when the third-place finisher, Greg?s Gold, ran second in one of the highest rated sprints of this year in his next start and then won on June 11 and sixth-place finisher, Lava Man, returned to win Allowance NW3 on May 14 and then took the G2 Californian on June 18 making it a ?key? race. He has returned with a series of brisk works leading up into this event and his lone debacle here at Inglewood occurred in his debut more than three years ago. Jockey Corey Nakatini decided to jump off recent G3 LA Times Handicap winner Forest Grove for this mount and with an affinity for this distance, excellent outside draw, and tactical speed to apply the pressure and run his rivals ragged makes Unfurl the Flag my BEST BET OF THE MEET! (9) AREYOUTALKNTOME (6-1): Won his only start at this distance last year at Del Mar when he took the Real Good Stakes versus three-year olds. This California-bred gelding has registered two smart efforts from three starts since returning from a brief freshening on March 20 at Santa Anita. In that race, he was force to chase the crazy speed ball Stone Rain through blazing early fractions and worn down that rival in the final yards to register the victory earning a Beyer Speed Figure that is close to par for this class level. One can throw out his next start behind our top choice in the Tiz Now Stakes when he press the early pace, fell back sharply while taking up into the lane at a distance that is simply not to his affinity. He returned to his preferred six-furlong distance in the Los Angeles Times Handicap and was force to chase the early pace while three wide down the backstretch and then was part of a four horse speed duel while widest of all through the turn and was slowly gaining in a race that saw the third-place finisher returned to win the G2 True North BC Handicap on June 11. He has been given sufficient time to recover from that grueling effort and is reunited with Tyler Baze who was aboard for both of this gelding?s victories this year. (3) FOREST GROVE (5-1): Finished ahead of our second choice in their only meeting, Los Angeles Times Handicap, and the difference was ground loss. While our second choice had to navigate a three to four wide trip, Forest Grove saved all the ground from the rail, slipped through along the inside, and held off the late charge of the eventual runner-up to win. Before that race, he ran a smart second in the Count Fleet Stakes where he finished ahead of subsequent two-time stakes winner Rodeo?s Castle. Has necessary tactical speed to sit forwardly placed and having won at a one-mile and mile and sixteenth of the turf last year this seven-furlong distance should him perfectly. (2) SAINT BUDDY (20-1): He removed the blinkers and cut back to seven furlongs for the first time on June 8 and delivered a smashing performance. He prompted the pace throughout, challenge the leaders under his own power on the turn, and blasted by his rivals in a visually impressive performance that earned him a Beyer Speed Figure that is close to par for this level (par is 110). No worse than third in three starts over the Inglewood main track makes this Rafael Becerra trainee worthy of consideration at square price. Wagering Strategies: Play the (14) UNFURL THE FLAG to WIN Main Exacta Boxes: 14-3 and 14-9 Small Exacta: 14-2. No reverse Race 10: G3 Royal Heroine Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares, Three-and-up (9) SECRET CHARM (6-1): Makes her United States debut in her first start for trainer Neil Drysdale and this Green Desert filly has the credentials to spring the minor upset. She won her first two starts as a two-year old including her debut over twenty-three horse field suggesting that she runs well fresh. She made her three-year old debut in the English 1000 Guineas and if it were not for an unlucky trip she likely would have finished much closer to the front running winner Attraction than her 2-¾-length margin of defeat would suggest. She was taken well back off the front running victor in that race and as she attempted to make her bid into contention she was hopelessly blocked with no running room with two furlongs out, and when she did get some room she finished strongly to miss third. This trouble was noteworthy and received its action when she was bet down to the 4-1 second choice in the Irish 1000 Guineas in her next start but had no apparent excuse finishing fifth and parlayed that performance into another poor effort when she finished last behind her main rival in the Group One Coronation Stakes. She was freshened up and returned to score a confidence boosting win on September 10 before splitting the field versus males the Group 3 Joel Stakes. She gets lasix for her U.S. debut and has trained in spectacular fashion including an eye catching team drill on June 23 blowing away some notable barn mates such as King of Happiness. John Velasquez gets the mount and she can either press the pace, track the leaders, or rally from far back makes this bay filly dangerous at a square price. (8) PICKLE (6-1): She is my co-top choice in this race and deservedly so given she has done nothing wrong in all four starts this year including visiting the winner circle in her last two starts. She was my top choice to win the G3 Wilshire Handicap on April 23 here at Hollywood Park and she did not disappoint at 9-1. She tracked a hotly contested pace led by the outsider Five Nickels, attacked the tiring leaders entering the lane, took the lead, and held off the late charge of Makeup Artist in a race that was verified when the fourth-place finisher returned to win the G1 Gamely BC Handicap and the last place finisher returned to win Allowance NW1 in her next start making it a ?key? race. Pickle proved that win was no fluke when she shipped to Golden Gate and won the G3 Yerba Buena by a well measured half-length. She tracked the uncontested pacesetter early, rallied three wide into the stretch, and rallied past her rival to win by half-length as the post time favorite. She returns to a distance where she has finished off the board only once in four starts with three wins and jockey Victor Espinoza takes at what projects to be a hint of a price. (2) MEA DOMINA (3-1): She had a real excuse when fourth as the beaten favorite behind Pickle in the April 23 G3 Wilshire Handicap and in that race she was wound up in the paddock and ran her race before the gate opened. She was calmer and more relaxed when she returned in the G1 Gamely where she set a grueling pressured pace with Miss Terrible, dueled that rival into defeat (finished fifth), opened up a clear lead, and held off the late charge of her stable mate Solar Echo to notch her first G1 victory. The likely pacesetter must be caught on the front end as she cuts back a furlong to a distance that she has finished off the board only once in four start with three wins and Tyler Baze has been aboard for two of this fillies three wins this year. (6) INTERCONTINENTAL (5-2): Besides always fighting jockey Jerry Bailey in the early stages of her race, I could not find an excuse for her defeat as the 3-5 favorite in the G2 Just A Game BC Handicap. The layoff and the fact that she was not trained is not an excuse since she won that same race off a six week hiatus last year and won her two previous starts off layoffs. She had dead aim at the winner, Sand Springs, but could not offer the late punch. Connections will bring more attention and make her an underlay. Wagering Strategies: Play the (8) PICKLE and (9) SECRET CHARM to WIN Main Exacta Box: 8-9 Small Exactas: 8-2, 8-6, 9-2, and 9-6. No reverse Hollywood Park Pick 3 Races 7-9 Race 7: (1) Chief Planner and (12) SPELLBINDER Race 8: (3) Thatswhatimean, (5) Melhor Ainda, (6) Luas Line, and (11) Three Degrees Race 9: (9) Areyoutalkntome and (14) UNFURL THE FLAG Ticket A: 12 / 3-5-6-11 / 9-14 = 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8 Ticket B: 1-12 / 3-5-6-11 / 14 = 2 x 4 x 1 x $1 = $8 Total Wager: $16 Hollywood Park Pick 3 Races 8-10 Race 8: (3) Thatswhatimean, (5) Melhor Ainda, (6) Luas Line, and (11) Three Degrees Race 9: (9) Areyoutalkntome and (14) UNFURL THE FLAG Race 10: (8) Pickle and (9) SECRET CHARM Ticket A: 3-5-6-11 / 9-14 / 9 = 4 x 2 x 1 x $1 = $8 Ticket B: 3-5-6-11 / 14 / 8-9 = 4 x 1 x 2 x $1 = $8 Total Wager: $16 MOST PROBABLE WINNER: UNFURL THE FLAG (Race Nine, 6-1) BEST LONGSHOT BET: THATSWHATIMEAN (Race Eight, 30-1) WORSE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: SUNSET PLACE (Race Seven, 7-2) Good Luck Today and Catch You Tomorrow for Independence Day Action!

coachesplays · July 2005

you just play your own. Got any Hollywood picks today?

MrExacta · July 2005

I really didn't think that favorite would run. MrExacta -`

SoCalGuy Hollywood American Oaks Day 2005

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