Early college football thoughts ...

ChemicalAT · July 2005

My process of preparing for the upcoming college football season starts in mid-June with reading websites and annuals. By this time, I have a concept of what I think. Now, it's time to look at futures ... national title bets, conference championships and season total wins. By next month, it's time to start handicapping the early games. While thinking about the future bets that are out there right now, I can't help but comment on some of the things I am reading on websites about where the money is going. I see a lot of people betting Ohio State and USC "over" their season total wins and betting them to win the national title. I've also noticed they're both the favorites to win their respective conferences. DON'T WASTE YOUR MONEY. No Big Ten is going undefeated this season. So anybody thinking Ohio State as the second choice in the BCS betting is a good bet, had better think again. I follow Ohio State very closely. And I want to warn people not to put too much stock into the Buckeyes' final two results of last year. After all, that is what's fueling this optimism. If you look at the Buckeyes' overall body of work from last year, you wouldn't be betting them to win the title. Lets not forget this team went on a 3-game losing streak at mid-season which included a loss at Northwestern. The reason for this is because the offense got cancer. With Ginn and Holmes, the Buckeyes figure to be better offensively. But the QB situation still isn't good. And this team hasn't had a running game since Clarett. I do think Ohio State is among the Big Ten's top teams. And I think they're one of the Top 10 teams in the country in terms of talent. But if you're betting them "over 9" wins, you not likely to cash. People doing this are acting as though the Buckeyes have only three tough games this year - Texas, Iowa and at Michigan. But what about at Minnesota or at Penn State? Remember, this team is going to need major offensive improvement to pull out close games on the Big Ten road this year. Ohio State is very good this year. The defense is top notch and they have two playmakers. But playing in a very competitive conference with no running game and average QB play will take its toll at least once, if not twice. That makes going over 9 very difficult and the bet could be lost by the time they get to Michigan. USC - This is obviously the best team in the country. It's quite possible the entire offense will be playing on Sunday's within five years. BUT, going "over 11" wins is a lot to ask. Laying even money on not only making, but winning the BCS is just plain foolishness. If you're playing either of these wagers, then it's time to stop betting college football. USC does have some questions. Its defense lost alot of talent two years ago and again last year. The newcomers are all top notch, but it still takes time. I do think this will be a Top 20 defense and the offense is the country's best. But what future bettors are doing is asking this team to be nearly perfect. The PAC-10 this year is much like the Big Ten. It has improved significantly from top to bottom. Wazzu will be much better. Oregon ditto. UCLA same thing. But it's not just USC's Pac-10 sked that worries me. It's the placing of the games and the non-conf opponents. I don't care what anybody says - opening at Hawaii is stupid. Yes, the Bows aren't good this year, but opening up on vacation and the logistics of playing in Hawaii to start just isn't a normal beginning for a team. You have fall practice and then a trip to Hawaii and then you come home to play your schedule. USC does get a week off before Arkansas, but that's a tough opponent. Then play at Oregon and at ASU in back to back weeks. Later they go to Notre Dame. Then the late schedule has games at Cal and home against Fresno State and UCLA. They catch Cal when it will have had a good amount of time to get clicking and same with UCLA. This schedule is full of landmines. Even with such great overall talent the past few seasons, USC has had its close calls. They VaTech, Stanford, Oregon State and UCLA were all decently competitive games last year and that was with last year's great D-Line. These future lines on USC already show there will be ZERO VALUE anywhere with this team this season. And if you can't bet against them, then don't play at all. Just please don't accept such poor odds on these ridiculousy priced futures. If anything a peanut play against might not be bad. At this point, you might be thinking "So who do you like?" There is actually one team that I keep coming back to as offering great value compared to its schedule and overall talent. That team is Virginia Tech. If Vick can play up to his hype, this team has a great setup with its schedule to run the table. In my opinion, they are the most talented team in the ACC and they have a good amount of experience, too. More on Va Tech later.

Produce · July 2005

you think VT has more "talent" than Miami? I worked in the UF recruiting office for a few years. I met and recruited most of the players that go to miami. Talent wise, there is no way possible that VT can compare. Now, VT might be a good team, they might even be a better team than miami. But they damn sure dont have more talent.

ChemicalAT · July 2005

Va Tech is better. Va Tech won at Miami last year and completely dominated the Canes offense with its defense. Va Tech's defense is easily the best in the ACC this year.

Produce · July 2005

Talent and what they do with it are 2 completely different things.

ChemicalAT · July 2005

If you went by the opinions of recruiting services, though, you'd always be wrong. Miami's overall talent last year was very overrated - in my opinion. Good, but overrated. Conversely, I happen to think Va Tech's 2003 recruiting class is one of the best in the country. Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall were two great LB recruits. They got two receivers who are both tall, fast and starting this year also. It was a better class than anybody gave it credit for. Adibi is going to be a stud very soon.

Produce · July 2005

I know what you mean, but miami has corner that will never see the field that have 4.4 speed. Brock Berlin was a joke, thats why we (uf) got rid of him. Of course this year they are going to start a new QB and there is no telling how it will go. Im not saying miami is a better team, Im just saying talent wise they have had more talent than any other team in the nation for the last 15+ years.

ChemicalAT · July 2005

because I have a team that has had more. And I have this argument often. I'll say that Ohio State has had more - if we're talking the last 15 years. I think people forget about this, but you have to remember those John Cooper teams that were the best in country and never won a national title. And then the Tressel teams. I think Ohio State is right there with them.

Produce · July 2005

so you think that the bottom 20 plays on any ohio state team were as good as or better than the bottom 20 players on miami? Come on now. The state of florida is a wealth of talent. Theres a reason that miami puts more pro NFL players out there than anyone else. Because they have more "talent"

ChemicalAT · July 2005

Bottom 20 maybe not. But Top 22 (both sides of the ball) yes. I can Ohio State can hang with anybody. Florida has great talent, but so does Ohio, Texas and California. Those are top football talent states. But I want to remind you that Kellen Winslow and DJ Williams are from California, yet they played at Miami. What I wanted was for you to start naming players and I would name a Buckeye that was as good or better. Like Eddie George or Shawn Springs or Terry Glenn from those Cooper teams. Big Daddy Wilkinson. Orlando Pace. Ricky Dudley. Katzenmoyer. Bellisari and so on.

footballpix · July 2005

The USC game with Fresno State could be troublesome for the Trojans. Pat Hill does a great job getting his teams ready for big games. Should be a great matchup, even at the Coliseum.

Produce · July 2005

I can think of only a few guys from miami. Ray lewis Michael irvin Edgerrin James Ed Reed Jim Kelly (old school) Willis McGahee Reggie Wayne Warren Sapp Jeremy Shockey Clinton Portis Santana Moss Sean Taylor Najeh Davenport Bubba Franks Bryant McKinnie Dan Morgan Antrel Rolle Frank Gore OH MY GOD. Its a "whos whos" list of NFL players. No need to respond with the Ohio State list, it wont be necessary.

Produce · July 2005

I almost forgot. Most of these guys get together and play a game at the end of the year. Its call the "Pro Bowl"

ChemicalAT · July 2005

Ohio State had more draft picks in the past two seasons than any team. Mike Doss Kenny Peterson Will Smith Michael Jenkins Craig Krenzel Mike Nugent Matt Wilhelm Simon Fraser Darion Scott Nate Clements Nail Diggs Chris Gamble David Boston Joey Galloway Rob Murphy Ken-Yon Rambo Ahmed Plummer Antoine Winfield Mike Vrabel Robert Smith (old school) Bobby Hoying Jonathan Wells

Produce · July 2005

That list was sad sir. Ill ask you an honest question. Do you think that anyone in the world would say that that Ohio State list even comes close to the Miami list?

ChemicalAT · July 2005

My second list didn't include some of the best guys - i.e. Eddie George, Shawn Springs and Orlando Pace. Those are All-Pros multiple times. It's closer than you think.

Produce · July 2005

there are people on your list that I dont even recognize their names. There isnt anyone on my list that is a pure stud. Hell, the top 2 defensive players in the game are on there. 3 of the top running backs in the league are on there. The #1 Tight end is on there. A few of the best safeties in the league. Not to mention a washed up Warren Sapp that was the best defensive tackle in the game for a while.

robgatling · July 2005

on that produce. when he includes George, etc. it's a better list. And since your going as old school as michael Irvin, may as well let chemical add Chris Carter, Keith Byars, Chris Speilman, just off the top of my head.

ChemicalAT · July 2005

I could go deeper. I think Produce is missing the overall depth of the list. And I don't agree with the top two defensive players and two of the top three running backs angle. That's a bunch of bullshit.

Produce · July 2005

add them, then compare it again. There isnt one guy on the Ohio list that is the best player at his position. Orlando Pace is the best arguement you have, and hes a damn Offensive linemen.

ChemicalAT · July 2005

what about his career?

Produce · July 2005

heres the list of the "defensive player of the year" 1999 - Warren Sapp, DT Tampa Bay 2000 - Ray Lewis, LB Baltimore 2001 - Michael Strahan, DE NY Giants 2002 - Derrick Brooks, LB Tampa Bay 2003 - Ray Lewis, LB Baltimore 2004 - Ed Reed, S Baltimore 4 of the last 6, and the #1 defensive player of the year from the last 2 years was on my list. Hince the fact that the top 2 defensive players in the league came from "The U"

Produce · July 2005

George is good, but never ever ever was he the best player at his position. Im a fan of his, but give me a break. They guy is Rafael Palmerio's twin. Hes going to get the stats by the time hes done, but never was the best at his position

Produce · July 2005

Right now, the U has the #1 safety, the #1 Middle linebacker and the #1 tight end. Can you name another school that can say they have 3 of the #1 players in the league at their position? Ill save you some time, dont start with Ohio state

robgatling · July 2005

Shockey...no way. I would bet that most NFL teams, given the choice, take Gonzalez, Gates, Crumpler before him without thinking. Shockey has trouble getting to the top of the next tier list of Witten, Heap, and Clark. jmo

1967 · July 2005

Are you a UF fan or a "U" fan???? Maybe you are the reason Zook lost his job, LOL. You let all the "Quote" "unquote" talent wind up in Miami, ROTFLMAO. Do you know FBPIX personally???

Produce · July 2005

actually florida is a very deep talent team as well. We dont take in all the "quality" people that miami does. for example, when the #1 linebacker in the nation came to visit UF we didnt suck his dick. He asked for things we wouldnt give him, he threw a fit. We asked him to leave. He signed with miami not long after, and has been problems ever since. Yes, I know FBP well. I am a UF fan, but I know that virginia tech and Ohio state arent in the same dicussion as Miami when it comes to talent.

1967 · July 2005

That clears up why you were'nt banned when PATS was. FBPIX interceded.

footballpix · July 2005

I had no input either way. That move was made by Edward. I support it, however.

Produce · July 2005

acutally I did get banned. I email ed and asked to be put back. Currently Im under certain "rules" and the reason that pats isnt back is because he hasnt asked to be back. Thats how I understand it atleast. Pats told me he wasnt going to worry about it for a few. Please do your research before you run your mouth about something that you have no clue about.

1967 · July 2005

I assumed wrong, sorry. Peace and BOL.

Produce · July 2005

you assumed that since I knew FBP that edward would ban pats and not me? I see you think highly of edward and FBP

Early college football thoughts ...

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