NFL Team Win Total Projection and Writeup

footballpix · July 2005

San Francisco 49ers UNDER 4.5, -125 San Francisco was 2-14 in 2004. The schedule this year includes STL, DAL, IND, TB, NYG, SEA, ARI and HOU at home and PHI, ARI, WAS, CHI, TEN, SEA, JAC and STL on the road. Where are the 5 wins needed to go OVER this total going to come from? MAYBE Houston at home but no guarantee. Are there four more wins on the San Francisco schedule? San Francisco has the toughest home schedule in their division this season, even with the worst record in the NFL last year. Brandon Lloyd, Arnaz Battle, Johnnie Morton and P.J. Fleck are the wide receivers for this team and the best pass catcher they have is the TE, Eric Johnson. This is not good. Morton was worthless in a pass-happy offense in KC and they were willing to let him walk. These other guys are marginal starters on any other NFL team. Tim Rattay will start the year for SF but once this season is in the toilet (around Week 7), Alex Smith will get his shot. Who are either of these guys going to throw to? The offensive line will be an issue, as they lost the best tackle they had in Kyle Kosier to Detroit in Free Agency. They did get Jonas Jennings from Buffalo and drafted David Baas so the line will improve once they learn cohesion and can work together but I don't think that Mike Nolan will allow Alex Smith to get punished until he has some confidence that the O-Line can protect him. Kevan Barlow is penciled in as the starter, but only gained 800+ yards last year with a YPC of 3.4, below the league average. He was benched for being a malcontent and may not last if the new staff decides that they want to plan for the future and a top pick in 2006. If he opens his mouth, he will get cut. The defense needs a healthy Julian Peterson and everyone stepping up bigtime if they have any hope of improving the worst defense in the entire NFL. They were statistaclly worse than anyone else in the league and will be hard pressed to keep opponents below 20 PPG, which will be a stretch for the offense to match. San Fran is setting themselves up the 2006 draft. Four and a half games seems way beyond capability. UNDER 4.5 and I actually think 3 will be an accomplishment. Play this UNDER 4.5 and enjoy watching a SF team that is totally gearing up for the future, with an owner that is known throughout the league as being cheap. If you need any proof that the Eddie DeBartolo days and Super Bowl Championships are only a memory, watch this year's edition of the Forty Niners. If you wish to read the other writeups for NFL, preseason win totals and observations, send me an email from the website link and I will be glad to add you to the mailing list. No charge! Thanks as always, Mychal www.AdvantageSports1.com