Betting Talk

Two questions:

LetItRideLetItRide Senior Member
edited July 2005 in Sports Betting
1) Why the hell is St. Louis a (-205) road fave over a first place team? I <br>know Carpenter has been great and San Diego has been playing like shit, <br>but it isn't like the Cards are tearing the cover off the ball. They've <br>only scored 5+ runs in a game 3 times since July 6.<br><br>2) Why does everyone continue to bet UP D. Willis? It's obvious now that <br>his 2nd half fades aren't a fluke. He's given up 23 earned runs in his <br>last 13 innings pitched, which covers only 3 starts. Yet his line has gone <br>from (-196) to (-201) at Pinnacle. Wells is no diamond in the rough, but <br>that is WAY too steep a price to pay for a pitcher performing that poorly <br>on a team that hasn't won more than 2 in a row in over a month.

Comments

  • ProduceProduce Banned
    edited July 2005
    since noone else wants to chat, you know I will.<br><br><br>The reason both of these lines are what they are is because when a pitcher <br>gets hot and is throwing against an average ball club people love to pound <br>that pitcher. With the Willis situation, people cant get it out of their <br>mind how well he pitched to start the year.<br><br>People tend to bet hoping a team will start to get hot, or a pitcher is <br>"due" for a good outing. I forget who said it, but someone said here a <br>long time ago that it is much better to ride the hot teams than bet on the <br>"due" teams. Seems simple but makes a lot of sense.<br><br><br>Cards arent scoring runs and willis sucks. Bet them up!!!!
  • GooseSTLGooseSTL Senior Member
    edited July 2005
    The Cards line might high also because they have lost 2 games in a row <br>only 3 times this season. Think about that. So Vegas is saying that <br>there is a trend w/ STL, they lose 2 in a row very often, and they have <br>the best or in Produce's mind, the 3rd best pitcher in the NL, on the <br>mound tonight. Those are probably the resaon's why. GL,<br><br>GooseSTL
  • ProduceProduce Banned
    edited July 2005
    Carpenters numbers against the Pads:<br><br><br>In 3 games he is 1-1 lifetime<br><br><br>In his last game he lost going 7 innings, giving up 5 earned runs and only <br>5 Ks, while walking 5. They Lost 4-5 to the pads, at home.
  • ProduceProduce Banned
    edited July 2005
    oh and by the way, I dont consider him the 3rd best pitcher in the NL. He <br>isnt even in my top 5
  • LetItRideLetItRide Senior Member
    edited July 2005
    Vegas may set the line with that thinking, but it is the public that keeps <br>it there. Or, in this case, raises the line even more. Joe Public is an <br>idiot for taking the Cards in this spot. Sure, they may win...probably <br>will. But laying that kind of scratch is ridiculous IMO.<br><br>By the way, I don't know who Produce thinks is #2, but I know Clemens has <br>a better ERA, allows fewer hits per 9 innings, and has given up half the <br>number of HR's that Carpenter has. Roger has lost 3 games 1-0, and his <br>bullpen has blown a lead of his leads 4 times this year. If he is pitching <br>for St. Louis, he's got 18 wins by now. Houston was only averaging 3.7 <br>runs/game until about a month ago. If he doesn't get the Cy Young, it is a <br>travesty.
  • rootirooti Senior Member
    edited July 2005
    roger deserves it so far!
  • ProduceProduce Banned
    edited July 2005
    If you are taking pitchers with the same lineup behind them, Id take a ton <br>of pitchers before carp<br><br><br>Peavy<br>Clemens<br>Oswalt<br>Pettitte<br>Pedro<br>Smoltz<br><br><br>And to tell you the truth there are a bunch Id take on the same level as <br>him
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