Cleveland Browns 2005 Win Total & Writeup

footballpix · July 2005

To understand my theories on playing NFL Season Win Totals, it helps to understand that I find it easier to determine teams that will likely perform as expected or under perform, as opposed to hoping that teams can overachieve and go injury-free, a near impossibility in the NFL. With the risk of an injury to a QB or other key offensive or defensive personnel, I find that the greater success lies in not risking my money on the hope that everyone survives the season unscathed. Rather, it is easier to find value in teams that are thin at many positions and are one key loss away from going even farther south than anticipated. That is why I find UNDERS to be much safer plays when wagering on NFL Season Win Totals. Let's move ahead: Las Vegas has set the Cleveland Browns 2005 Season Win Total at 4.5, -125. The Browns 2005 schedule has them at home against CINN, CHI, DET, TENN, MIA, JAX, PITT and BALT; and road games against GB, INDY, BALT, HOU, PITT, MINN, CINN and OAK. The play is: Cleveland Browns UNDER 4.5 (One Unit) The Browns are actually 5th from the top in available cap space based on 2005 projections with a spare $8.6 million in reserve. With a new coaching staff and money to spare, optimism should reign on the banks of Lake Erie. HC Romeo Crennel is a defensive coach with an outstanding pedigree, coming from the Super Bowl Champion Patriots, where he proved that unusual schemes are role players can do as well or better than high priced free agents. Hell, he even had a wide receiver playing defensive back in the nickel and dime package with good success. Unfortunately, Mr. Crennel and his staff take over a real mess in Cleveland, and it won't be solved overnight. When Al Lerner, team owner passed away a couple of years ago, the decisions that had been made regarding the front office personnel and player roster had gone horribly wrong. Butch Davis demanded (and was given, unfortunately) complete control of football operations. He ran off anyone that he hadn't hired, including original Team President Carmen Policy, who had orchestrated the 49ers rise to power in the past two decades. His reign was so filled with paranoia and mistakes that even the secretaries bailed out due to his desire to run every little aspect of the team. Players left or were cut who didn't knuckle under his iron fist. The problem was, Davis had no experience with the oversight of an NFL franchise having only been an NFL assistant and college head coach in the past. This took this Browns team back several steps in the attempt to compete in a tough AFC. It certainly didn't help that the new Browns franchise was given two fewer years to get started in organizing it's staff, scouts, draft and roster than any other expansion team had received in NFL history. Hence, Tim Couch! Like many other Denver Bronco running backs before him, Ruben Droughns felt that he was the key to the Bronco running game and was traded to Cleveland this spring, thanks in part to the advice of his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. Droughns came and tried to hold out for a new deal, which failed miserably. The fact that coach Crennel announced that the starting job was Lee Suggs's to lose probably also didn't help Droughns' case. Guard Ross Verba also demanded a new contract, saying that it had been promised to him by Butch Davis, so Cleveland signed L.J. Shelton from the Cardinals, a chronic underachiever and cut Verba. Verba was perceived as a bad teammate by many in the Cleveland locker room and were glad to see him go. If any of the starters on the O-Line are lost to injury, the Browns will be in trouble. RT Ryan Tucker and C Jeff Faine are returning from knee injuries and Cleveland just signed T Marcus Spears primarily as a run-blocker. The running game and keeping Trent Dilfer upright will be critical for this group which they have had poor success with in the past, even with a far more mobile Jeff Garcia under center. The Browns will be without Kellen Winslow for all of 2005 and possibly longer, even permanently. Backup tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden are both decent ball catchers but questionable run blockers. If defenses look to double team Braylon Edwards, Antonio Bryant, or Dennis Northcutt, the TE's may see a increased role in the offense. Still, the Browns have little to show from the previous drafts and really need Edwards to play a big role. The problem is, Crennel wants to be able to play ball control and run the football to keep his defense off the field. Very questionable that Cleveland has the personnel to play that "grind it out" style like the Steelers have done for years. There was sentiment that Edwards may have been a bad choice for a team unwilling and possibly unable to throw the ball with any regularity, at least with any success. He was considered the top WR in the draft by many, however. The offensive problems will be hugely magnified if Dilfer goes down and out for any stretch, something that must be considered when looking at his past health history. Currently the depth chart lists rookie Charlie Frye and second-year practice squad regular Josh Harris as Dilfer?s backups. Because of this inexperience, the Browns signed veteran Doug Johnson, who was a backup to Michael Vick in 2003 when he went down in the preseason with a broken leg. Johnson went on to set new statistical lows in the NFL history of quarterbacking. It will be a disaster for the Browns if any of these three backups see significant playing time this year, especially with a marginal running game. Hopefully the O-Line can open enough holes and rookie Lee Suggs can step up in case Droughns was exactly what many in the league feel, another product of the Broncos system. Clinton Portis, anyone? Defensively, the Browns cleaned house or lost personnel in Free Agency. Former LB Dwayne Rudd may be best remembered for his actions by throwing his helmet in excitement when KC failed on a last-second FG attempt, only to see him get penalized for removing his helmet on the field and excessive celebration... allowing another FG attempt from closer in and costing Cleveland the game. Other losses were players past their prime or overpriced for the rebuilding process that has started (or tried once again, actually). The players that the Browns picked up are low cost band-aids that will hopefully be serviceable until the cap space and draft allow Crennel to mold the team in his image. All told, it is hard to find many bright spots with a team that is being rebuilt for the third time. When your most consistent player, your MVP is Phil Dawson, the kicker... that about says it all. It is likely that Crennel will steal a game or two with a great effort and game plan, but there are no sure wins anywhere to be found with the AFC North improved in Baltimore and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh expected to be close to last year's team unless Big Ben should regress. If you hope that they steal a couple of home wins against the Bengals and maybe against a rebuilding Dolphin team, there is really nothing else on the schedule that looks anywhere near certain. Either the tough schedule on the road or the improved division teams will keep the Brownies from those elusive victories needed to cover the 4.5 total. That half game cushion from 4 to 5 may not be needed, but I am very glad to have it. I can't come up with five games that Cleveland can be competitive in with this schedule. Too tough on the road and too much improvement by the AFC North. UNDER 4.5 (One Unit) PROJECTION: 3-13 (Very Optimistic) The final Team Total Play for this season will be on the Washington Redskins, emailed later this week. This will coincide with the first NFL Preseason games next Saturday and Monday, for which I may have a free selection posted. Stay tuned! __________________ Mychal www.AdvantageSports1.com