Hey mmurphy

GDog · August 2005

Yesterday you took Atl and hou. Both favs of 220 or more. In a siutation like this, would you favor playing a paraly instead. Risk 100 to win 100. If you go 1-1 you lose 100 whereas in the staright bets you would win 100 and lose 120 or more. Just a thought. What do you think?

mmurphy77 · August 2005

Yes, that's a very good idea - I don't do any parlays myself as I consider them a bad bet much like when out in Vegas at the crap table playing the Any Craps and the Field. I try to stay off any bets where the percentages are stacked for the House. Yesterday after I saw that Atlanta was winning comfortably I laid off half my Astro bet as I left for the day at noon to go boating with my family. It turned out to be a lucky move but later I felt dumb as I realized - what if Atl loses and Houst. wins? You've screwed up your day royally!!! That's why I try to stick to straight up betting and don't even do 1.5 runs very often. When you get up a bunch what you add from a -200 favorite is just fine!

fish · August 2005

whats for 2day hotdog???

mmurphy77 · August 2005

Now that you brought up Big Favorites, a very popular subject on this board as it should be, I can give you the July numbers I've got for Favorites over -150. Over 200 Favorites went 21-6 in July. That means that over 200 Favorites in July in the NL won 78 % of the time!!! I knew that the number was high as I am never afraid to jump on a big favorite and I've never won more money in my life than I have this summer betting baseball. I just am surprised at this statistic!!! 78% - wow! Now, when we go down to the 155 to 195 area we see a whole different story. Overall the number is 26 wins and 24 loses. That's 52% for the Favorites. Breaking that down more I found that in July in the NL only the 155,160 & 165 favorites were 14 & 12. The 170 to 175 Favorites went 6 & 5 and the 180 to 185 Favorites went 4 & 6 and the 190 and 195 Favorites went 2 to 1. No explanation for the 180's going 4 & 6. That category lost 6 of the first 7 games and then won the last 3 or it really would have been an oddity at 1 & 6. I will try to find time to do the AL as today I don't like any games much other than the Cards a little at home to the Marlins but I'm still studying it!!!

fish · August 2005

put fish on the list as a fav. of yours... u can get in free all the time : to rhe "shed" that is.. u da man ... how long till u thibk u pull the trigga on goossieyss team???

songy1 · August 2005

murphy u da man do you know who i am its micsongy1 your tearing it up is that you

brians · August 2005

Very good stats on those big favorites and you have to remember that its still pick and choose. In other words 21-6 those 6 you might not even bet them. Saw something very similiar early May and thats when i started looking at them serious. It was like 72% in May. Good job.

Duke30 · August 2005

which arguably can be high, for favorites that were 200 or greater in July they went 44-17 winning at 724%. The problem is that those wins would bring you back 44 units but you would lose 38.30 units for a net of +5.7. Obviosuly making money but still risky proposition to only return 4% on over 139 units.

mmurphy77 · August 2005

Good Point Brian! Looking at the numbers we see that in East there were 29 Favorites and 40 in the Central and only 7 games in the West Division in July with a Favorite over -150. 4 of those 7 were Losers by the way. Looking at the 6 over -200 Losers we find: SD Home to SF Peavy vs. Correai SD 2 SF 3 -280L Wash Hm to Colo Hern Vs. Jenn. Wsh 2 CO 3 -230L Fla Hm to Mil Beck vs. Capu. Fla 4 Mil 6 -200L Hou Hm Mets Osw vs. Ishii H 4 NYM 9 -240 Lost Chic Hm Wash Zamb vs.Drese Chic 4 Wash 5 -205L Stl Hm Colo Marq vs.Wright Stl 1 CO 3 -250L San Diego hasn't been winning much and Wash. certainly isn't so those two being over -200 is a risky thing for sure. StL was 0ver -200 3 in a row home to Colo and won 2 out of the 3 which is about all you can expect.

Hey mmurphy

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