Coll Foots Season Totals plays ....

ChemicalAT · August 2005

Here we go ... my first in a series of pre-season prop bets. But first let me warn you all of "going crazy" on these types of bets. The danger in betting futures is that anything can happen between "now and then." And it's a natural impulse of ours to go bigger on these bets since we're so pumped up for the season. Never go more than one unit on these plays - that's my advice. And never play more than 10 future bets per sport. You don't want to be on the hook for 10 units in such a long term proposition. Remember, the main thrust of what we're supposed to be doing is finding value on a weekly basis as the public overreacts to everything ESPN jams down its throats. OK, 'nuff said. Here are my two college football season total wins bets for the coming season. CALIFORNIA "over 8.5 wins -130" I have seen the juice on this bet as high as -150, so if you're going to get in on this, do it soon before the juice rises or the number hits 9. Most people see Cal as having to rebuild this year. But a closer look tells us that's only the case at one or two positions. Losing Rodgers to the NFL is the biggest problem the offense faces, but given Tedford's success at developing QBs and the remaining talent on offense, Cal isn't going to have any problems putting up points. If anything, the Bears might be more brutally effective than they were last year. The strength of the offense this year is the line and running back Marshawn Lynch. Cal won't lose a step with Arrington gone as Lynch is on the verge of stardom and could be college football's most bruising runner. He scored 8 TDs last year and averaged nearly 9 yards per carry. He cannot be tackled by one man in the open field. The QB situation isn't settled right now as JUCO star Ayoob and redshirt frosh Longshore have put on a good battle. Much had been made of Cal's late season receiving problems, as most of last year's top targets got injured and the offense wasn't the same in November/Dec. as it was in Sept./Oct. But the unit is going to be very strong with frosh stud Desean Jackson taking one spot and Ayoob's top JUCO target Lavelle Hawkins taking the other. I saw Jackson play in an HS all-star game with USC super recruit QB Mark Sanchez, and I have never seen two players more ready for the college game than these two. Jackson might already be one of the conference's top five receivers without ever catching a pass. I obviously like the situation either QB steps into as not only will he have some good receivers and Tedford's mentorship to fall back on, but he'll also have one of the nation's best running games to take all the pressure off. Defensively, the preseason annuals tell you Cal lost 8 starters and only three return. But DB McCleskey and DL Lupoi were '03 starters who didn't play last year due to injuries. On top of that, Cal has top JUCO talents stepping into three other positions. The secondary is one of the countries best with McCleskey back and two 6-foot-2 cornerbacks with NFL potential. You have to remember that Tedford has been doing a great job recruiting and getting JUCO talent. Cal is easily a Top 10 team in terms of pure talent. They may not have the same depth of other Top 10 teams, but that department is improving and the starting 22 could hang with anyone. The best part of this bet is we're asking Cal to simply hit 9 wins. The first five games should get us more than half way there: Sacramento State, at Washington, Illinois, at New Mexico State and Arizona. Then, the schedule gets a bit tougher as the cream of the PAC-1O comes calling. But by that time Cal's QB and receivers will have had enough time to put it all together. The USC game is in Berkley this year and nobody has played the Trojans tougher during the past three seasons. That game could send the winner on to the Rose Bowl, and if that's the case, our bet will have been won by then. PURDUE "over 9 wins -125" Purely a schedule play? I think not. Yes, it helps that Purdue doesn't play Michigan or Ohio State this year. But I am not so sure the Boilermakers wouldn't handle both this season anyway. Purdue 2004 was the poster team for bad luck. All losses last year came by a total margin of 14 points. The Boilermakers were a poor -3 in turnover ratio. When you average 31 points per game, and give up 17, you're supposed to be better than 7-5. But that didn't happen as Kyle Orton's dream beginning hit hard times and a young defense made late game mistakes multiple times. This year, all of that turns around. Every starter returns on defense and the offense will have better balance with Brandon Kirsch at QB. Kirsch is no slouch and allows the team to do much more given his mobility. The receivers he works with are excellent and produce major matchup problems. Kyle Ingraham is a 6-foot-9 wideout. Yes, 6-foot-9! Tight end Charles Davis is 6-foot-6 and will play in the NFL next season. This could be Purdue's best offense since Brees left, which isn't saying much as I think Purdue has been a major disappointment annually on offense. But still, it will be good. The defense is what I really like about this team. The Boilermakers held Michigan to just 263 yards of total offense last season. Ohio State managed just 162. Iowa beat Purdue by only two points last season after Purdue was -4 turnovers in the game. What does all of this tell you? Purdue is playing defense comparable to any of the top teams in the country and with a little luck, they not only will sail over this total of 9 wins, but might just make it all the way to the Rose Bowl. I am pretty certain the Boilermakers will win their first four games of the season. And I am also confident they win their last three. That's seven wins right there I am confident about and in the other four games, my lean is all Purdue victories, too. I just don't see where this team even loses a game this year and they should be favored in every game this season.

SportsGuru · August 2005

...if I did I would jump on board that Purdue one in particular and in a hurry. I think your analysis of 2004 is dead on and am looking for a nice rebound year from them as well. Good luck this season AT! SportsGuru

ChemicalAT · August 2005

looking forward to hearing from you this season. I am sure you'll do well as always. AT

Duke30 · August 2005

Just some thoughts to add to your analysis. Soph saftey Torri Williams is out for the season with an injury. Kyle Smith played most of last year but also dropped many INTs that cost a win or two, most notably against Wisconsin. The top WR recruit, Selwyn Lymon, will be academically ineligible. They have a number of other weapons but he was supposed to add to the receiving corps. Coach Tiller has mentioned that he is very impressed with RS frosh QB Curtis Painter and he could challenge Kirsch for the starting role in the new "option" offense that will be implemented. Not that this is a huge factor, but season ticket sales are up about 7% from last year, topping 41,000 right now. And when school starts you can expect at least another 4,000. Ross-Ade will be full every week. You mentioned the schedule and they have a very good chance to start 6-0 but then go on the road to Wiscy and Penn State. Madison has been okay to the Boilers but they always struggle at Penn State. If they lose both of those games the bet goes down the tubes. Good luck though, I will be cheering right with you.

RightAngle · August 2005

Good write-ups AT.

footballpix · August 2005

Great writeups, AT and good info from Duke and Guru too.

Coll Foots Season Totals plays ....

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