A couple of years ago, my friend David Todd and I drafted the ten playoff teams based on which ones were most likely -- considering probable paths and current abilities -- to win the World Series. I dragooned him in to run it back this year. You’ve probably heard Dave on the radio or seen his all-too-rational Pirates analysis on Twitter.
These days, he’s a raconteur, a bon vivant, available for parties and road trips. Oh, and he’s looking for work.
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David Todd: Well, Joe, I have to say I’m a bit surprised you came back for your annual thumping. Who did win last year anyway? Obviously, it was whoever had first pick, because the Cubs were a clear-cut favorite and were able to get it done. But, as we’ve discussed ad nauseam, the MLB playoffs are the ultimate dice roll and this year’s tournament looks to be as exciting as any I can remember in the past decade. The oddsmakers are basically tossing out the Rockies and the Twins, understandably, but the other eight teams all have a legitimate case, or so it appears from where I sit.
With the first pick in the 2017 MLB Playoff Draft, the Pittsburgh Todds select...damn, this is hard. This is a year in which picking second seems to be advantageous. Could you just tell me if Clayton Kershaw is going to be regular-season Clayton Kershaw or playoff Clayton Kershaw? (That is sure to piss some people off; “Kershaw’s been just as good in the playoffs!") Give me the Indians. The depth of the rotation and them coming into the playoffs healthier than they have been in a while tilts the balance.
So that leaves you with the Dodgers and….
Joe Sheehan: I was hoping you might stick with the only league you know and take the Dodgers. It feels too square to pick the team that closed 33-4 to win the World Series, but the Indians are a lot more than a hot streak.
As you guess, I’ll take the Dodgers, whose path to the World Series seems to get a little easier each day with each bit of injury news coming out of D.C. and Chicago. It’s not like they’ve been all that healthy, either, with all the pitching problems plus Corey Seager’s elbow issue. Still, there’s no case for taking anyone else second.
It gets hard now, because of the uncertainty surrounding Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, and Jake Arrieta. It’s a little easier for me to identify the teams I don’t want than the ones I do want. Rather than take insurance against the Dodgers, though, I’ll pick the team second-most-likely to make an LCS, the Astros. It’s as much fading the Red Sox, with their lack of power and worrisome rotation behind Chris Sale, as it is anything else.
DT: As expected, I would have done the same. Was 2017 the year Sports Illustrated picked the Astros to win the World Series three or four years ago with their season-opening cover story? The Astros and Cubs are the poster teams for the teardown, get-it-right-quickly model that is now so widely emulated across sports. It is also what makes what the Diamondbacks accomplished this year so interesting. Who could have guessed that having Tony La Russa, Dave Stewart and no analytics department might hold them back?
I love Arizona, so I’m going to pass on the obvious Cubs/Nats duo that would guarantee me a team in the NLCS and take the Nats and the Diamondbacks. The Cubs rotation is a problem and you laid out the issues with the Nats, but I’ll bank on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to get it done. Damn shame they don’t still have Felipe Rivero. Also, I have no interest in rooting for the Cubs or the Sox.
JS: Color me impressed. I’m not sure a wild-card team has ever gone in the top half of the draft before, for obvious reasons. If the Diamondbacks do get through the Rockies — watch out for Jon Gray! — they are a vicious matchup for the Dodgers.
(Oh, and it was the great Ben Reiter in June of 2014. Dude’s a star, and we’re 11 wins from him getting the recognition he richly deserves.)
I’ll pick up your leavings with the Cubs, who start with a series that I am struggling with because of the various injury issues. Bryce Harper has three hits in seven weeks, which is a vicious framing of his situation, to be sure. The Nationals were a bad offensive team without him in September, which doesn’t mean they can’t turn it around, but it’s enough, along with the questions about Scherzer, to make me comfortable taking the Cubs.
That leaves three AL teams, and three wild-card teams, with four picks to go. I’ve already indicated I’m down on the Red Sox with my Astros pick, but I can’t say I’m all that excited about the Yankees against the Indians after burning Luis Severino to get through the Twins. Brian Kenny made a strong point about how they could have used the bullpen to get through the Twins and lined up Severino for Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS. It’s a close call, but I’ll take the Chris Sale to cut through the Astros like a pair of scissors, a pick that lines me up to have at least one ALCS team, but prevents me from having two.
I have a pretty good idea how this plays out from here...
DT: I’ll take the Yanks and Rockies just to ensure I have a team to match up with the Dodgers. If the Twins win, I’m still very comfortable with the Indians. Good luck!
JS: Huh, I didn’t think about it tactically, just figured you’d take both AL wild cards. That leaves me the Twins, who are 33-90 at Yankee Stadium since 2002 and who have lost nine straight playoff games to the Yankees and who went 12-26 against AL playoff teams and who are starting a guy with a 4.46 FIP. Mr. Irrelevant, indeed.
This was like a chess match that was decided in the first few moves. Once you took the Indians, it was over. I’d trade my five for yours in a heartbeat.
Comments
I got MINN
Good Luck.
A couple of years ago, my friend David Todd and I drafted the ten playoff teams based on which ones were most likely -- considering probable paths and current abilities -- to win the World Series. I dragooned him in to run it back this year. You’ve probably heard Dave on the radio or seen his all-too-rational Pirates analysis on Twitter.
These days, he’s a raconteur, a bon vivant, available for parties and road trips. Oh, and he’s looking for work.
--
David Todd: Well, Joe, I have to say I’m a bit surprised you came back for your annual thumping. Who did win last year anyway? Obviously, it was whoever had first pick, because the Cubs were a clear-cut favorite and were able to get it done. But, as we’ve discussed ad nauseam, the MLB playoffs are the ultimate dice roll and this year’s tournament looks to be as exciting as any I can remember in the past decade. The oddsmakers are basically tossing out the Rockies and the Twins, understandably, but the other eight teams all have a legitimate case, or so it appears from where I sit.
With the first pick in the 2017 MLB Playoff Draft, the Pittsburgh Todds select...damn, this is hard. This is a year in which picking second seems to be advantageous. Could you just tell me if Clayton Kershaw is going to be regular-season Clayton Kershaw or playoff Clayton Kershaw? (That is sure to piss some people off; “Kershaw’s been just as good in the playoffs!") Give me the Indians. The depth of the rotation and them coming into the playoffs healthier than they have been in a while tilts the balance.
So that leaves you with the Dodgers and….
Joe Sheehan: I was hoping you might stick with the only league you know and take the Dodgers. It feels too square to pick the team that closed 33-4 to win the World Series, but the Indians are a lot more than a hot streak.
As you guess, I’ll take the Dodgers, whose path to the World Series seems to get a little easier each day with each bit of injury news coming out of D.C. and Chicago. It’s not like they’ve been all that healthy, either, with all the pitching problems plus Corey Seager’s elbow issue. Still, there’s no case for taking anyone else second.
It gets hard now, because of the uncertainty surrounding Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, and Jake Arrieta. It’s a little easier for me to identify the teams I don’t want than the ones I do want. Rather than take insurance against the Dodgers, though, I’ll pick the team second-most-likely to make an LCS, the Astros. It’s as much fading the Red Sox, with their lack of power and worrisome rotation behind Chris Sale, as it is anything else.
DT: As expected, I would have done the same. Was 2017 the year Sports Illustrated picked the Astros to win the World Series three or four years ago with their season-opening cover story? The Astros and Cubs are the poster teams for the teardown, get-it-right-quickly model that is now so widely emulated across sports. It is also what makes what the Diamondbacks accomplished this year so interesting. Who could have guessed that having Tony La Russa, Dave Stewart and no analytics department might hold them back?
I love Arizona, so I’m going to pass on the obvious Cubs/Nats duo that would guarantee me a team in the NLCS and take the Nats and the Diamondbacks. The Cubs rotation is a problem and you laid out the issues with the Nats, but I’ll bank on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to get it done. Damn shame they don’t still have Felipe Rivero. Also, I have no interest in rooting for the Cubs or the Sox.
JS: Color me impressed. I’m not sure a wild-card team has ever gone in the top half of the draft before, for obvious reasons. If the Diamondbacks do get through the Rockies — watch out for Jon Gray! — they are a vicious matchup for the Dodgers.
(Oh, and it was the great Ben Reiter in June of 2014. Dude’s a star, and we’re 11 wins from him getting the recognition he richly deserves.)
I’ll pick up your leavings with the Cubs, who start with a series that I am struggling with because of the various injury issues. Bryce Harper has three hits in seven weeks, which is a vicious framing of his situation, to be sure. The Nationals were a bad offensive team without him in September, which doesn’t mean they can’t turn it around, but it’s enough, along with the questions about Scherzer, to make me comfortable taking the Cubs.
That leaves three AL teams, and three wild-card teams, with four picks to go. I’ve already indicated I’m down on the Red Sox with my Astros pick, but I can’t say I’m all that excited about the Yankees against the Indians after burning Luis Severino to get through the Twins. Brian Kenny made a strong point about how they could have used the bullpen to get through the Twins and lined up Severino for Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS. It’s a close call, but I’ll take the Chris Sale to cut through the Astros like a pair of scissors, a pick that lines me up to have at least one ALCS team, but prevents me from having two.
I have a pretty good idea how this plays out from here...
DT: I’ll take the Yanks and Rockies just to ensure I have a team to match up with the Dodgers. If the Twins win, I’m still very comfortable with the Indians. Good luck!
JS: Huh, I didn’t think about it tactically, just figured you’d take both AL wild cards. That leaves me the Twins, who are 33-90 at Yankee Stadium since 2002 and who have lost nine straight playoff games to the Yankees and who went 12-26 against AL playoff teams and who are starting a guy with a 4.46 FIP. Mr. Irrelevant, indeed.
This was like a chess match that was decided in the first few moves. Once you took the Indians, it was over. I’d trade my five for yours in a heartbeat.
The Draft
1. Indians
2. Dodgers
3. Astros
4. Nationals
5. Diamondbacks
6. Cubs
7. Red Sox
8. Yankees
9. Rockies
10. Twins