Betting Talk

Question about competition with friend

Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
edited July 2016 in Sports Betting
A friend and I have a competition going for last 13 months. He basically bets on the current line and I take the other side or vice versa. He mostly bets MLB and NFL with some rare NCAAF and NBA.

Anyway, I was winning for the past year, maybe $500-$600. He usually would play maybe 5 plays per week. Then recently he went on a crazy run for mlb. 26-6 over last few weeks, with 2-3 plays a day and up like $1400. Mostly betting small favorites around -140 to -150. He is not beating the closing line consistently or anything. Should I be at all worried that this is some sustainable run? My mind tells me know, but I'd be lying if it didn't have me a bit worried.

Thanks in advance.

Chisox

Comments

  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    Chisox6 wrote: »
    A friend and I have a competition going for last 13 months. He basically bets on the current line and I take the other side or vice versa. He mostly bets MLB and NFL with some rare NCAAF and NBA.

    Anyway, I was winning for the past year, maybe $500-$600. He usually would play maybe 5 plays per week. Then recently he went on a crazy run for mlb. 26-6 over last few weeks, with 2-3 plays a day and up like $1400. Mostly betting small favorites around -140 to -150. He is not [/B]beating the closing line consistently or anything. Should I be at all worried that this is some sustainable run? My mind tells me know, but I'd be lying if it didn't have me a bit worried.

    Thanks in advance.

    Chisox

    I wouldn't worry, I don't think it's sustainable, everyone goes through hot and cold stretches, just ride it out, things will eventually turn. If he was consistently beating the closer, it would be a different story
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited July 2016
    Has your friend made any changes in his betting that you're aware of?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    I do some accounting/account maintenance for a few locals in the area. Essentially, I let the locals know if someone is a potential threat to their long term bankroll. Had a kid go up 65k (2-5k wagers) in a matter of 3 weeks. He was down almost 100k the past 2 years. Disected all his plays over that span and found nothing odd, wasn't beating the closer, chasing steam. He just got hot, the local didn't feel comfortable with what I told him and cut the guy off. I told him about another book in town and he went on to lose 40k~ to the new local, nice little kickback for me :) Stay the course ChiSox. Are you in WI?
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    Fixed with quote/reply below.
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    ericvanden wrote: »
    I do some accounting/account maintenance for a few locals in the area. Essentially, I let the locals know if someone is a potential threat to their long term bankroll. Had a kid go up 65k (2-5k wagers) in a matter of 3 weeks. He was down almost 100k the past 2 years. Disected all his plays over that span and found nothing odd, wasn't beating the closer, chasing steam. He just got hot, the local didn't feel comfortable with what I told him and cut the guy off. I told him about another book in town and he went on to lose 40k~ to the new local, nice little kickback for me :) Stay the course ChiSox. Are you in WI?

    Yes, currently in Milwaukee. Thanks for advice, appreciate it.
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    Tortuga wrote: »
    Has your friend made any changes in his betting that you're aware of?

    None that I can pick up on. He seems to simply be picking small favorites (-140 to -150) mostly where the favorite has the better pitcher (in his mind at least, usually the one with the better ERA). Only thing a little different is he hasn't bet any run lines lately, where as before with mlb he was occasionally (maybe 10%) of the time betting the favorite -1.5
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited July 2016
    Chisox6 wrote: »
    None that I can pick up on. He seems to simply be picking small favorites (-140 to -150) mostly where the favorite has the better pitcher (in his mind at least, usually the one with the better ERA). Only thing a little different is he hasn't bet any run lines lately, where as before with mlb he was occasionally (maybe 10%) of the time betting the favorite -1.5

    OK. Any big changes would be something to watch for. It seems that others in this thread are on the right track.
  • ricodotricodot Senior Member
    edited July 2016
    absolutely what kane said. don't worry at all. short term results
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