455-441 (-12.43)
After considerable thought, I have decided to suspend the experiment. I had very high hopes for how this would turn out, but in the end, the expectations have not matched reality, for a number of reasons.
I suspected from the very beginning that this idea was too good to be true. No one is making money subjectively handicapping the widely-available number in major sports. That's what I thought I had found, and I have enough data to say that it was a mirage.
From time to time, sports betting presents people with an opportunity to see how logical fallacies dominate our thought processes. Messageboard posters frequently say things like, "All my non-posted picks win", and that seems that it's been true for me here.
I had been posting Mr. X's picks here, while at the same time posting my personal bets (some of which coincided) on covers. The results of that can be seen here: http://contests.covers.com/KingOfCovers/Contestant/AllHistory/BennyProfane/
The Heisenberg Principle of Uncertainty seems to be firmly at work here, in ways that a non-scientist such as myself can't understand. I just don't understand how a person, who by all appearances had by far the best posted record of any handicapper in the history of the internet, suddenly has an enormous cold streak, simply because I started posting his picks.
One thing I've always told people I've met in person about betting is that you never, ever, ever follow picks that are posted on the internet. If you want to win at this, handicap the games yourself, bet against the consensus, aggressively line shop, and if possible, bet at a reduced juice sports book. This is the process, and there are no shortcuts.
For a long time, the experiment here was going just not badly enough that I believed it was still going to be profitable in the long run. Still, I found many of the picks to be completely inexplicable. Specifically, lots of the road favorites. I trusted the process, and the results speak for themselves.
In my final tally, due to my taking advantage of deposit bonuses, good lines, under betting Kelly (I did .25% of bankroll on the vast majority of these bets), I wound up losing $600 on the picks in this thread. The opportunity cost is what I regret most, since I could have bet more on "Bennycapping".
If nothing else, it was a valuable lesson to me about how sports betting works. In any endeavor, a person's education never ends. This is a vocation, and we should always struggle to learn everything about it and gain every possible angle. Investigating leads that turn out to be false is never a waste. As for Mr. X, he continues to do exactly what he has been doing almost every day for 13 years now. He posts sporadic picks on a message board that is completely unrelated to sports or gambling. There is never commentary or write-ups, just picks and a yearly record that corresponds to my tally for him. There is no record of a person by his handle posting on any other message boards, and a search of his email address showed a minimal online footprint. He never responded to anything I wrote to him. If you can find his board, I'll be impressed, since it gets a minimal amount of traffic. I'll continue to check in on him from time to time, but I'll not post his picks here.
The mind of an intellectually curious person loves mystery. It gives our lives meaning and texture. That's what dragged me into this in the first place.
I might in the next year start another thread posting my own picks, along with general discussion.
Onto another completely unrelated topic.
Does anyone here know anything about cryptography? PM me on Sportsbookreview if you can help.
Comments
128 Steelers -5 1/2
713 Atlanta Pk
722 Clippers +4 1/2
238 Temple -11 1/2
239 Minnesota-Wash State over 60 1/2
242 Boise -7 even
520 Memphis +2
After considerable thought, I have decided to suspend the experiment. I had very high hopes for how this would turn out, but in the end, the expectations have not matched reality, for a number of reasons.
I suspected from the very beginning that this idea was too good to be true. No one is making money subjectively handicapping the widely-available number in major sports. That's what I thought I had found, and I have enough data to say that it was a mirage.
From time to time, sports betting presents people with an opportunity to see how logical fallacies dominate our thought processes. Messageboard posters frequently say things like, "All my non-posted picks win", and that seems that it's been true for me here.
I had been posting Mr. X's picks here, while at the same time posting my personal bets (some of which coincided) on covers. The results of that can be seen here: http://contests.covers.com/KingOfCovers/Contestant/AllHistory/BennyProfane/
The Heisenberg Principle of Uncertainty seems to be firmly at work here, in ways that a non-scientist such as myself can't understand. I just don't understand how a person, who by all appearances had by far the best posted record of any handicapper in the history of the internet, suddenly has an enormous cold streak, simply because I started posting his picks.
One thing I've always told people I've met in person about betting is that you never, ever, ever follow picks that are posted on the internet. If you want to win at this, handicap the games yourself, bet against the consensus, aggressively line shop, and if possible, bet at a reduced juice sports book. This is the process, and there are no shortcuts.
For a long time, the experiment here was going just not badly enough that I believed it was still going to be profitable in the long run. Still, I found many of the picks to be completely inexplicable. Specifically, lots of the road favorites. I trusted the process, and the results speak for themselves.
In my final tally, due to my taking advantage of deposit bonuses, good lines, under betting Kelly (I did .25% of bankroll on the vast majority of these bets), I wound up losing $600 on the picks in this thread. The opportunity cost is what I regret most, since I could have bet more on "Bennycapping".
If nothing else, it was a valuable lesson to me about how sports betting works. In any endeavor, a person's education never ends. This is a vocation, and we should always struggle to learn everything about it and gain every possible angle. Investigating leads that turn out to be false is never a waste. As for Mr. X, he continues to do exactly what he has been doing almost every day for 13 years now. He posts sporadic picks on a message board that is completely unrelated to sports or gambling. There is never commentary or write-ups, just picks and a yearly record that corresponds to my tally for him. There is no record of a person by his handle posting on any other message boards, and a search of his email address showed a minimal online footprint. He never responded to anything I wrote to him. If you can find his board, I'll be impressed, since it gets a minimal amount of traffic. I'll continue to check in on him from time to time, but I'll not post his picks here.
The mind of an intellectually curious person loves mystery. It gives our lives meaning and texture. That's what dragged me into this in the first place.
I might in the next year start another thread posting my own picks, along with general discussion.
Onto another completely unrelated topic.
Does anyone here know anything about cryptography? PM me on Sportsbookreview if you can help.