966 nyy -125..................too cheap to pass up
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I have this bet at -125 also but I am nervous because I dont understand the line. The home field advantage should give the home team of two equally matched teams shorter odds than -125. Not to mention the Yankees are 17 games ahead in the standings. Not to mention they are on a hot streak 8-2 vs. Tampa's 3-7. As far as the pitcher matchup, in August/September the Tampa starter is 0-5 with his team 1-6 and opponents batting .330. The Yankee starter has only 4 starts this year but is 2-0 and the team is 4-0 in those games, opponents batting .227. As far as bullpen, the Yankees are 4th best in the AL in ERA, TB is 4th worst. Finally the Yankees are in the heat of a pennant race and TB would seem less motivated ceteris paribus.
It is a bit of a jumble of stats here, not meant to be a rigorous model, but I just used the easiest to find: didnt intentionally cherrypick them. Any idea why this isnt -190?
that is a very good question ..but am not sure , i have a metric that i use in my model for the pitching part and i think the yanks have a big advantage plus everything you said.
if they offer the yanks at this price then so be it...if i lose o well , yesterday i thought the yanks were cheap and the line moved against me and the yanks won, Indians were very cheap, line move with me by over 20 cents and i lost....my model does the thinking for me for the most part.
OT ...you have been pretty quite , everything ok, you might be posting to some of these other threads so if you are sorry , dont really look.
good luck today
I don't do much baseball in Sept. Season is at +39.34 and College is going okay. Not much for the NFL in some High $ contest and play my 1 teaser a week. Funny I like the Giants (Baseball) today just waiting to pull the trigger for the 1:00 pm PST start.
Hope all is well with you and Good Luck today. I played one teaser T.Bay and Detroit
Think about trying the Niners tonight and if u can't find a 3 take a ML although with the extra not a given anymore #'s 1&2 will play a bigger role this year. Don't have the numbers from last year but taking the ML with anything less then +3 like I said not a given for me anyway.
agree ,posted sf early last week so i get the sweep in the nfl.....took texas late...my line on that game was hou -105 wasnt going to take it to i seen your post ....we do pretty well when on the same side ....you know its always a long grind ...on to another day.
doing my college and pro now....
First time am not going to bet a model play this year ....col +146 is the play but Ari at home vs lefties are top in the league in batting and slugging and i just dont feel comfy with the pitching match up ...see what happens.
965 nyy +107..........has nothing to do with this game but with two young kids up next in rotation , yanks really need this game...they need all of them but this would be a nice start to series.
OT that was crazy line movement ...i have no clue, one min they are -146 next getting 1 something...i had very good clv on the other two and splitting.
I wasnt really worried about that move on hou just more curious. When lines moved againt me this year am well ahead of the game.
Good luck today ...anything match up with me ??
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I have this bet at -125 also but I am nervous because I dont understand the line. The home field advantage should give the home team of two equally matched teams shorter odds than -125. Not to mention the Yankees are 17 games ahead in the standings. Not to mention they are on a hot streak 8-2 vs. Tampa's 3-7. As far as the pitcher matchup, in August/September the Tampa starter is 0-5 with his team 1-6 and opponents batting .330. The Yankee starter has only 4 starts this year but is 2-0 and the team is 4-0 in those games, opponents batting .227. As far as bullpen, the Yankees are 4th best in the AL in ERA, TB is 4th worst. Finally the Yankees are in the heat of a pennant race and TB would seem less motivated ceteris paribus.
It is a bit of a jumble of stats here, not meant to be a rigorous model, but I just used the easiest to find: didnt intentionally cherrypick them. Any idea why this isnt -190?
if they offer the yanks at this price then so be it...if i lose o well , yesterday i thought the yanks were cheap and the line moved against me and the yanks won, Indians were very cheap, line move with me by over 20 cents and i lost....my model does the thinking for me for the most part.
good luck to you which ever way you go
listed luck
good luck today
I don't do much baseball in Sept. Season is at +39.34 and College is going okay. Not much for the NFL in some High $ contest and play my 1 teaser a week. Funny I like the Giants (Baseball) today just waiting to pull the trigger for the 1:00 pm PST start.
Hope all is well with you and Good Luck today. I played one teaser T.Bay and Detroit
off to a pretty good start in football....8-1 in college , 2-0 in nfl , have sf tonight...
son pitched in scrimmage yesterday , he faced 4 batters and struck them all out , only threw 2 balls...nice day one for the freshman..
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Think about trying the Niners tonight and if u can't find a 3 take a ML although with the extra not a given anymore #'s 1&2 will play a bigger role this year. Don't have the numbers from last year but taking the ML with anything less then +3 like I said not a given for me anyway.
doing my college and pro now....
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
listed luck
I wasnt really worried about that move on hou just more curious. When lines moved againt me this year am well ahead of the game.
Good luck today ...anything match up with me ??
listed luck
listed luck