Betting Talk

NBA Underdog method

maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
edited January 2016 in Sports Betting
Just want to keep a record of this system to see how it performs on the year. Only one play today and that is Dallas +6 (Bookmaker). I will try to post everyday to see how it does.
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Comments

  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    It uses recent form along with home and away play. Any difference of 3 or more with the line and the system line is a play. The system spread has Cleveland by 3.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I'm on it.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Hold on Benny. This is just a test to see what happens. I'm really not sure how it will perform. Most of the lines it comes up are within 2 1/2 points or less of the offshores spreads which is usually a good sign, if it didn't I would be worried. These were the lines it came up with for tonight's games.

    Indiana-10 1/2
    Boston -2
    San Antonio-8 1/2
    Memphis-1
    Chicago-3 1/2
    Oklahoma City-13 1/2
    Cleveland-3
    New Orleans-3

    I played it to, but I would wait a while to see if it seems worthwhile to follow. Don't forget it's only a dog system, no play on any favorite even though there may be a 3 point or more difference.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Charlotte +3
    Minnesota +8 1/2
    New Orleans +8

    Win 1
    Lose 0
    Units +1
  • richhhhrichhhh Junior Member
    edited January 2016
    The problem with any system that it lacks a actual win probability, even if there was a profitable system you will never know if the market has caught up to you and you lost any edge that was present in the past. Speaking of the past why not test the system using historical data? Why test it going forward?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Right, that's why the back testing always has to always be done first and accurately .
    last night I hit minny +10 at BM went to go post it went to 9.5 currently at +8
    Minny fits 2 of my subsets and the market has caught onto it, but it took them 6 years to do so.
    I have to be quick and grab what I can as fast as I can these days on certain situations.
    Non dormire :basketball:
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    off the open or close that 2.5 ? and it needs to get lower then that ...

    good luck going forward
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    No Plays

    Win 4
    Lose 0
    Units +4
  • crazyivan24crazyivan24 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Impressive start.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Charlotte +2 1/2 ( no lower than +2 1/2)

    I will list the games that must get the line posted. These games just qualify at 3 so a lower line would mean a 2 1/2 point difference which would become a no play.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    1 play today

    New York +4

    Win 5
    Lose 0
    Units +5
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Very good start
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    maidenguy wrote: »
    1 play today

    New York +4

    Win 5
    Lose 0
    Units +5

    Great start and Good Luck,
    Don't know if Melo is playing or not and Porzingis is questionable as well worth looking into. 17-9 as a dog though maybe Jackson is working some magic over there.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    The only thing we know for sure today is that Matt Barnes will throw the ball out of bounds right into Derek Fisher's face and pretend that he was trying to pass it to his teammates. :laugh:
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Looks like Melo is doubtful.

    Going to start posting only games that qualify if there's a line up overnight. For the rest of the lines that go up later morning, will only post after I check out the injury reports.

    Thanks guys, though it's only been 5 games.
  • crazyivan24crazyivan24 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Carmelo Anthony won't play Saturday.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    maidenguy wrote: »
    Looks like Melo is doubtful.

    Going to start posting only games that qualify if there's a line up overnight. For the rest of the lines that go up later morning, will only post after I check out the injury reports.

    Thanks guys, though it's only been 5 games.


    It's the NBA and what you'll see 90% of the time is GTD just my opinon but put your plays out and go with it I like the trend betting the team with it's star player out for the first game only. In Melo's case it's not that like that he's off and on for a little bit now. Don't drive yourself crazy. just use CS and go with it love to see you do well with it. I've been saying for years the NBA needs some kind of injury rule. something IDK what but something.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    up to date if that means anything

    #Knicks Kristaps Porzingis (shoulder) is probable for Saturday's game vs. the Grizzlies. http://bit.ly/PsMI9f
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    No early plays

    Win 5
    Lose 1
    Units +3.90
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    No plays on the rest of the games
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Early plays

    Portland +4 1/2
    Orlando +8
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Add

    Golden St. +3
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    1 play today

    Minnesota +5

    Win 7
    Lose 2
    Units +4.80
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    1 play today

    Minnesota +5

    Win 7
    Lose 2
    Units +4.80
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Jan 20

    Detroit +3
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Jan. 21

    No plays

    Win 8
    Lose 3
    Units +4.7
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Scratch that, may have a play up later.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Jan. 21

    LA Clippers +6
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    No plays today

    Win 8
    Lose 4
    Units +3.6
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Chicago +11
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