Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 7
underwraps
Senior Member
Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 7
BUFFALO VS. JACKSONVILLE (in London, England): Buffalo opened at -6, but has been dropping through the week because of injuries. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is out again. E.J. Manuel will get the start. The Wise Guys are much less enamored of Manuel. I wouldnt read that move in any sort of pro-Jacksonville way. Sharps have soured on the Jaguars after some early season enthusiasm. Poor result last week vs. Houston. The Over/Under is down from 42.5 to 41 because of Buffalos offensive injuries. Ill only mention totals in the spots that have moved at least a point.
CLEVELAND AT ST. LOUIS: St. Louis was bet up from an opener of -5.5 to -6.5. This is a very difficult schedule spot for the visiting Browns. Theyre coming off back-to-back overtime games while St. Louis just had a bye. So, situational sharps see this as a game that could blow up in favor of the hosts. But, Wise Guys who place more weight on stats and Power Ratings would definitely consider the Browns at +7 and might settle for +6.5 if thats the highest its going to go on game day. If you look at the line, St. Louis isnt seen as this much better than the Browns when both teams are fresh. Bettors have to determine how big an adjustment to make (if any) for the hosts rest advantage.
PITTSBURGH AT KANSAS CITY: No line up on the board as I write this because Landry Jones will probably be starting for the Steelers. Oddsmakers want to make sure thats certain before risking any exposure. Ben Roethlisberger is progressing in his recovery from injury. But, his actions this week dont look like a surprise return is in the cards just yet. Once a number goes up first moves will tell you what the sharps are thinking.
HOUSTON AT MIAMI: This one has come down from an opener of -5.5 to -4.5. Oddsmakers tried to estimate how big enthusiasm would be for the Dolphins after last weeks great performance under the new coaches. Sharps think they overshot the mark. This may be where we sit through the weekend because no key numbers are involved and its not expected to be a high profile matchup in media coverage. The Over/Under is up from 43 to 45 because Miami played a more wide open game last week in Tennessee than what we had seen earlier. Plus, Houstons offense has been getting some things done with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. The fact that sharps hit both Houston and the Over is a reflection of that developing dynamic.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Clear support for the Jets at the opener of +9.5. Its telling that sharps didnt drive that a half point higher to the key number of 10. Instead, instead money on the dog! Now seeing Jets +8 everywhere. The public may come in on New England over the weekend though Jets backers are having success this year and may hold the line in check. If that number stays on the eight, the Patriots will be very popular in two-team teasers that let you move the line six points. Crossing both the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop is a hallmark of basic strategy teasers. The total is down from 49 to 48 because of respect for New Yorks defense.
MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Minnesota has been bet up from -1 to -2. The market soured on Detroit long ago as both the offense and defense are playing well below norms. Even in a win over the Bears last week, the Lions couldnt cover because they turned the ball over three times and allowed 444 total yards. Detroit will get a look in two-team teasers though if the line is sitting in the +1.5, +2, +2.5 range on game day. Sharps will push that up to +7.5, +8, or +8.5 in two-teamers.
ATLANTA AT TENNESSEE: Atlanta opened at -5.5. The line has come down a bit as the market tries to gauge the status of Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was hit low last week in the Miami game. Moves you see this weekend will likely be tied to news about his status, and sharp evaluations of the backup QB if Mariota cant go. The opening total is down from 48 to 47 or 46.5.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up in this one. Washington opened at -4, which fell immediately because of interest in improving Jameis Winston and the fresh Bucs off a bye. Tampa Bay +3.5 gets support, but Washington money comes in at -3. This isnt likely to be a heavily bet game by the public (a few matchups like that this week since those three undefeated powers are sitting out). So, were likely to see competing syndicates betting for value around the key number of three. Quants pounded the Under, with the opening total of 45.5 falling all the way to 42.5.
NEW ORLEANS AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of games opening within arms reach of five this week. An opener of Indianapolis -5 is down to -4.5 or -4 as I compile this report. Even though Andrew Luck is back, sharps still are down on the Colts! New Orleans is an awful road team. But, the Saints do have some extra preparation time off a Thursday nighter. Indy had that high energy game with the Patriots Sunday night. Another spot where the situational guys felt they had to step in for value even with a shaky visitor.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Another tweener line, as San Diego opened at -5.5. A lot of interest in the dog because this is a rivalry game, Oakland is coming off a bye, and San Diegos defense cant be trusted to play 60 good minutes. That opener of -5.5 is down to -4 with some stores testing -3.5. The Chargers would definitely get hit hard if the three comes into play. Sportsbooks arent likely to go there, and will be positioned to root for the hosts. This could be a heavily bet game by the days standards because its a late kick, and because Oakland has a strong local following in Nevada.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS: Dallas is also coming in off a bye, and also received strong betting support at the opening line as a road dog in a divisional rivalry game. The Giants went up at -6 its now painted -3.5 everywhere. New Yorks looked awful the last two weeks getting blown out by Philadelphia and barely beating San Francisco. The fact that Matt Cassel will get the start for Dallas doesnt hurt. Sharps hate Brandon Weeden, and think Cassel has the better chance to compete this week.
PHILADELPHIA AT CAROLINA: An opener of Carolina -3.5 has come down to a solid -3. You regulars know thats a big half point because there wasnt any buyback on the host. Philadelphias defense has been very impressive this season and largely keyed the blowout win this past Monday. The defensive dog made sense to sharps off Phillys recent form, even with Carolina sitting at 5-0 in the standings. The total has dropped from 47 to 45.5 because quants are getting lower projections in Eagles games. The offense is struggling while the defense is playing great.
MONDAY NIGHT
BALTIMORE AT ARIZONA: Big move here off an opener of Arizona -7 up to -8 and beyond. Some stores are showing -8.5. Looks like nine is the number that starts generating Baltimore interest. Horrible schedule spot for the Ravens who have already played at Denver, Oakland, and San Francisco. And, that loss to the Niners looks much worse now that SF wasnt competitive Thursday on the same field with Seattle. Quants couldnt believe they could get Arizona -7 on the opener. Note that Arizona -2 or 2.5 in teasers will be a popular play. And, sharp teaser plays LOVE Monday night qualifiers because they can tag them with games that go the following week. Arizona -2 or -2.5 could cause heavy sportsbook exposure over two separate weekends. The total is down from 49 to 48.
BUFFALO VS. JACKSONVILLE (in London, England): Buffalo opened at -6, but has been dropping through the week because of injuries. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is out again. E.J. Manuel will get the start. The Wise Guys are much less enamored of Manuel. I wouldnt read that move in any sort of pro-Jacksonville way. Sharps have soured on the Jaguars after some early season enthusiasm. Poor result last week vs. Houston. The Over/Under is down from 42.5 to 41 because of Buffalos offensive injuries. Ill only mention totals in the spots that have moved at least a point.
CLEVELAND AT ST. LOUIS: St. Louis was bet up from an opener of -5.5 to -6.5. This is a very difficult schedule spot for the visiting Browns. Theyre coming off back-to-back overtime games while St. Louis just had a bye. So, situational sharps see this as a game that could blow up in favor of the hosts. But, Wise Guys who place more weight on stats and Power Ratings would definitely consider the Browns at +7 and might settle for +6.5 if thats the highest its going to go on game day. If you look at the line, St. Louis isnt seen as this much better than the Browns when both teams are fresh. Bettors have to determine how big an adjustment to make (if any) for the hosts rest advantage.
PITTSBURGH AT KANSAS CITY: No line up on the board as I write this because Landry Jones will probably be starting for the Steelers. Oddsmakers want to make sure thats certain before risking any exposure. Ben Roethlisberger is progressing in his recovery from injury. But, his actions this week dont look like a surprise return is in the cards just yet. Once a number goes up first moves will tell you what the sharps are thinking.
HOUSTON AT MIAMI: This one has come down from an opener of -5.5 to -4.5. Oddsmakers tried to estimate how big enthusiasm would be for the Dolphins after last weeks great performance under the new coaches. Sharps think they overshot the mark. This may be where we sit through the weekend because no key numbers are involved and its not expected to be a high profile matchup in media coverage. The Over/Under is up from 43 to 45 because Miami played a more wide open game last week in Tennessee than what we had seen earlier. Plus, Houstons offense has been getting some things done with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. The fact that sharps hit both Houston and the Over is a reflection of that developing dynamic.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Clear support for the Jets at the opener of +9.5. Its telling that sharps didnt drive that a half point higher to the key number of 10. Instead, instead money on the dog! Now seeing Jets +8 everywhere. The public may come in on New England over the weekend though Jets backers are having success this year and may hold the line in check. If that number stays on the eight, the Patriots will be very popular in two-team teasers that let you move the line six points. Crossing both the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop is a hallmark of basic strategy teasers. The total is down from 49 to 48 because of respect for New Yorks defense.
MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Minnesota has been bet up from -1 to -2. The market soured on Detroit long ago as both the offense and defense are playing well below norms. Even in a win over the Bears last week, the Lions couldnt cover because they turned the ball over three times and allowed 444 total yards. Detroit will get a look in two-team teasers though if the line is sitting in the +1.5, +2, +2.5 range on game day. Sharps will push that up to +7.5, +8, or +8.5 in two-teamers.
ATLANTA AT TENNESSEE: Atlanta opened at -5.5. The line has come down a bit as the market tries to gauge the status of Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was hit low last week in the Miami game. Moves you see this weekend will likely be tied to news about his status, and sharp evaluations of the backup QB if Mariota cant go. The opening total is down from 48 to 47 or 46.5.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up in this one. Washington opened at -4, which fell immediately because of interest in improving Jameis Winston and the fresh Bucs off a bye. Tampa Bay +3.5 gets support, but Washington money comes in at -3. This isnt likely to be a heavily bet game by the public (a few matchups like that this week since those three undefeated powers are sitting out). So, were likely to see competing syndicates betting for value around the key number of three. Quants pounded the Under, with the opening total of 45.5 falling all the way to 42.5.
NEW ORLEANS AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of games opening within arms reach of five this week. An opener of Indianapolis -5 is down to -4.5 or -4 as I compile this report. Even though Andrew Luck is back, sharps still are down on the Colts! New Orleans is an awful road team. But, the Saints do have some extra preparation time off a Thursday nighter. Indy had that high energy game with the Patriots Sunday night. Another spot where the situational guys felt they had to step in for value even with a shaky visitor.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Another tweener line, as San Diego opened at -5.5. A lot of interest in the dog because this is a rivalry game, Oakland is coming off a bye, and San Diegos defense cant be trusted to play 60 good minutes. That opener of -5.5 is down to -4 with some stores testing -3.5. The Chargers would definitely get hit hard if the three comes into play. Sportsbooks arent likely to go there, and will be positioned to root for the hosts. This could be a heavily bet game by the days standards because its a late kick, and because Oakland has a strong local following in Nevada.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS: Dallas is also coming in off a bye, and also received strong betting support at the opening line as a road dog in a divisional rivalry game. The Giants went up at -6 its now painted -3.5 everywhere. New Yorks looked awful the last two weeks getting blown out by Philadelphia and barely beating San Francisco. The fact that Matt Cassel will get the start for Dallas doesnt hurt. Sharps hate Brandon Weeden, and think Cassel has the better chance to compete this week.
PHILADELPHIA AT CAROLINA: An opener of Carolina -3.5 has come down to a solid -3. You regulars know thats a big half point because there wasnt any buyback on the host. Philadelphias defense has been very impressive this season and largely keyed the blowout win this past Monday. The defensive dog made sense to sharps off Phillys recent form, even with Carolina sitting at 5-0 in the standings. The total has dropped from 47 to 45.5 because quants are getting lower projections in Eagles games. The offense is struggling while the defense is playing great.
MONDAY NIGHT
BALTIMORE AT ARIZONA: Big move here off an opener of Arizona -7 up to -8 and beyond. Some stores are showing -8.5. Looks like nine is the number that starts generating Baltimore interest. Horrible schedule spot for the Ravens who have already played at Denver, Oakland, and San Francisco. And, that loss to the Niners looks much worse now that SF wasnt competitive Thursday on the same field with Seattle. Quants couldnt believe they could get Arizona -7 on the opener. Note that Arizona -2 or 2.5 in teasers will be a popular play. And, sharp teaser plays LOVE Monday night qualifiers because they can tag them with games that go the following week. Arizona -2 or -2.5 could cause heavy sportsbook exposure over two separate weekends. The total is down from 49 to 48.