Question for the math guys re: NFL RSW
Obi One
Senior Member
When a team's regular season wins total is juiced to -185 for example, how do i convert that back to a -110 line?
What I mean is this:
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Over -150
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Under +130
if I want to theoretically convert these lines back to -110 what should I get on the RSW win number for the Jets?
Jets O/U -8.5 ? (= 20 cents per half win)
Jets O/U -9.5 ? (= 10 cents per half win)
Thanks in advance
What I mean is this:
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Over -150
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Under +130
if I want to theoretically convert these lines back to -110 what should I get on the RSW win number for the Jets?
Jets O/U -8.5 ? (= 20 cents per half win)
Jets O/U -9.5 ? (= 10 cents per half win)
Thanks in advance
Comments
I don't play a lot of season win totals, but 20 cents seems very cheap for a half win, given your scenario, I would take Caro over 8 -05 without thinking twice
Most people it appears thought that way because that's gone seeing only 8.5 with the best being Over +115
20c is cheap, from doing a quick three book comparison it looks more like 50c would be a good ballpark number.
I believe you are correct.
Appreciate it!
Thanks Lumpy,
Great to have this confirmed. I probably missed this the previous discussion about this.
Part of my capping is to asses the 'strength of schedule' for all teams when the RSW market closes in the beginning of september, compared to when they opened in March. I'm assuming a mature and completely informed market by then. This way I might get a slight glance on where the market is over/undervalueing the teams once the first games are played and their real strength numbers come rolling in.
Sounds more like a mistake if it's the exact opposite. let me check my PPH
In my experience the college lines can vary wildly on the RSW. If you're not making your own lines I'd use a shop like bookmaker for 5d as a reference point on price.
Cowboys last year would have capitalized on this, RSW market hated them
Based on the lines you provided over 7.5 has a 58% win probability. Not sure how accurate this will be but using the Binomial distribution over 7.5 wins in 16 games with a 58% win probability gives a per game win% of 49.5%.
Based on this the -110 line (or close to it) would be 8
over 8 38.6 %
under 8 41.7 %
exactly 8 19.6 %
But bookies dont like push numbers as it eats there profits so that would likey be why they used 7.5.