Betting Talk

Question for the math guys re: NFL RSW

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited August 2015 in Sports Betting
When a team's regular season wins total is juiced to -185 for example, how do i convert that back to a -110 line?

What I mean is this:
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Over -150
NY Jets RSW 7.5 Under +130

if I want to theoretically convert these lines back to -110 what should I get on the RSW win number for the Jets?
Jets O/U -8.5 ? (= 20 cents per half win)
Jets O/U -9.5 ? (= 10 cents per half win)

Thanks in advance

Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Think I made a mistake
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Okay Caro is Over 8.5 +115 or you can get Over 8 -105 which is 20 cents don't know if that helps you but 20 a 1/2 win sounds about right.
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Short answer is you can't. A half win in an NFL RSW is worth way too much. I don't know the exact number, but it is at least 80 - 90 cents and possibly a little more.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Okay Caro is Over 8.5 +115 or you can get Over 8 -105 which is 20 cents don't know if that helps you but 20 a 1/2 win sounds about right.

    I don't play a lot of season win totals, but 20 cents seems very cheap for a half win, given your scenario, I would take Caro over 8 -05 without thinking twice
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    kane wrote: »
    I don't play a lot of season win totals, but 20 cents seems very cheap for a half win, given your scenario, I would take Caro over 8 -05 without thinking twice

    Most people it appears thought that way because that's gone seeing only 8.5 with the best being Over +115
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    kane wrote: »
    I don't play a lot of season win totals, but 20 cents seems very cheap for a half win, given your scenario, I would take Caro over 8 -05 without thinking twice

    20c is cheap, from doing a quick three book comparison it looks more like 50c would be a good ballpark number.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    We had this discussion before and I think we came up with the 40/50 cents range
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    We had this discussion before and I think we came up with the 40/50 cents range

    I believe you are correct.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Thanks guys,
    Appreciate it!
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    50 was always the number, 5dimes will have dropdowns closer to the season to give you an idea.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    5d has multiple lines posted now, pretty close to 50c for the nearest 1/2 win and it escalates from there
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    5d has multiple lines posted now, pretty close to 50c for the nearest 1/2 win and it escalates from there

    Thanks Lumpy,
    Great to have this confirmed. I probably missed this the previous discussion about this.
    Part of my capping is to asses the 'strength of schedule' for all teams when the RSW market closes in the beginning of september, compared to when they opened in March. I'm assuming a mature and completely informed market by then. This way I might get a slight glance on where the market is over/undervalueing the teams once the first games are played and their real strength numbers come rolling in.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Question regarding RSW..this is a college example but also can pertain to nfl.. my pph is listing UCLA over 9 -140 Under +110..dimes is exact opposite...does this mean dimes has more exposure on the under(or my pph on the over) or that one of them is taking a stand..more likely to be dimes vs my pph.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    kcburgh wrote: »
    Question regarding RSW..this is a college example but also can pertain to nfl.. my pph is listing UCLA over 9 -140 Under +110..dimes is exact opposite...does this mean dimes has more exposure on the under(or my pph on the over) or that one of them is taking a stand..more likely to be dimes vs my pph.

    Sounds more like a mistake if it's the exact opposite. let me check my PPH
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Mine has UCLA 9 -115 both ways. Also IMO you shouldn't be betting into 30cent lines anyway.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I see UCLA Under -135 +105 UCLA Under 8.5 -130 +Over +150 Crazy stuff
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Sorry that Under 8.5 is +130 and the Over is -150 I had it backwards That's from WH
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    kcburgh wrote: »
    Question regarding RSW..this is a college example but also can pertain to nfl.. my pph is listing UCLA over 9 -140 Under +110..dimes is exact opposite...does this mean dimes has more exposure on the under(or my pph on the over) or that one of them is taking a stand..more likely to be dimes vs my pph.

    In my experience the college lines can vary wildly on the RSW. If you're not making your own lines I'd use a shop like bookmaker for 5d as a reference point on price.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    Thanks Lumpy,
    Great to have this confirmed. I probably missed this the previous discussion about this.
    Part of my capping is to asses the 'strength of schedule' for all teams when the RSW market closes in the beginning of september, compared to when they opened in March. I'm assuming a mature and completely informed market by then. This way I might get a slight glance on where the market is over/undervalueing the teams once the first games are played and their real strength numbers come rolling in.

    Cowboys last year would have capitalized on this, RSW market hated them
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Thanks for the input guys..
  • richhhhrichhhh Junior Member
    edited August 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    When a team's regular season wins total is juiced to -185 for example, how do i convert that back to a -110 line?

    What I mean is this:
    NY Jets RSW 7.5 Over -150
    NY Jets RSW 7.5 Under +130

    if I want to theoretically convert these lines back to -110 what should I get on the RSW win number for the Jets?
    Jets O/U -8.5 ? (= 20 cents per half win)
    Jets O/U -9.5 ? (= 10 cents per half win)

    Thanks in advance

    Based on the lines you provided over 7.5 has a 58% win probability. Not sure how accurate this will be but using the Binomial distribution over 7.5 wins in 16 games with a 58% win probability gives a per game win% of 49.5%.

    Based on this the -110 line (or close to it) would be 8
    over 8 38.6 %
    under 8 41.7 %
    exactly 8 19.6 %

    But bookies dont like push numbers as it eats there profits so that would likey be why they used 7.5.
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