International Rugby Union
paddyboy111
Senior Member
This is my first thread. I've had some good undocumented success with FIFA World Cup (63%) and FIBA World Cup (70%) betting this year so I'm working on a Rugby Union model for next year's IRB World Cup. The model output is a game- and tournament- simulation so it allows me to play exotic bets that aren't available for usual international test matches. The output is a distribution of game results rather than a spread estimate. I suspect international matches are bettable because the bettors from nations competing are the only ones moving lines and they all are 'sophisticated' with deeply held conventional wisdom. The model is in development still so I am only betting games with a big margin, when it is complete I expect i will bet more than half the games.
(0-0) +0 units.
November 22nd
South Africa - 18.5 over Italy 1.970
Ireland -2.5 over Australia 1.961
Argentina + 13 over France 1.970
(0-0) +0 units.
November 22nd
South Africa - 18.5 over Italy 1.970
Ireland -2.5 over Australia 1.961
Argentina + 13 over France 1.970
Comments
+0.931 units
November 23
Japan-6 over Georgia 1.990
-.069 units
England -3.5 over Australia 2.009
+0.940 units
Pending Scotland and now adding:
Italy + 10.5 over Ireland 1.952
Ireland -6.5 over France 2.000
Scotland to win outright over Wales 2.400
Italy +28.5 over England 1.909
Pending SCOTLAND outright
Now adding Scotland v Wales under 39.5 1.847, kickoff in 90 minutes
Amazing weekend for the line-setters, each of the 3 games ended 0.5 points from the closing line.