Betting Talk

International Rugby Union

paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
edited March 2015 in Sports Betting
This is my first thread. I've had some good undocumented success with FIFA World Cup (63%) and FIBA World Cup (70%) betting this year so I'm working on a Rugby Union model for next year's IRB World Cup. The model output is a game- and tournament- simulation so it allows me to play exotic bets that aren't available for usual international test matches. The output is a distribution of game results rather than a spread estimate. I suspect international matches are bettable because the bettors from nations competing are the only ones moving lines and they all are 'sophisticated' with deeply held conventional wisdom. The model is in development still so I am only betting games with a big margin, when it is complete I expect i will bet more than half the games.

(0-0) +0 units.
November 22nd
South Africa - 18.5 over Italy 1.970
Ireland -2.5 over Australia 1.961
Argentina + 13 over France 1.970

Comments

  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    I should point out: all lines are Pinnacle.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    (2-1-0)
    +0.931 units

    November 23
    Japan-6 over Georgia 1.990
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    (2-2-0)
    -.069 units
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    November 29
    England -3.5 over Australia 2.009
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    (3-2-0)
    +0.940 units
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    England +4 over Wales 1.97 (Note I also endorse that juicy England +172 line but that bet won't count for my record keeping)
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Scotland + 10.5 over France. 1.980
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    (4-2-0, +1.91 units)

    Pending Scotland and now adding:
    Italy + 10.5 over Ireland 1.952
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    (5-3-0, +1.89 units)
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Note: lines arent up on Pinnacle for some reason so I conservatively used Heritage Sports (which have worse odds than most books for the Ireland and Scotland picks and same odds on England)

    Ireland -6.5 over France 2.000
    Scotland to win outright over Wales 2.400
    Italy +28.5 over England 1.909
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    6-4 +1.89 units, 19% ROI
    Pending SCOTLAND outright

    Now adding Scotland v Wales under 39.5 1.847, kickoff in 90 minutes
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    6-6 -0.11 units, -1% ROI

    Amazing weekend for the line-setters, each of the 3 games ended 0.5 points from the closing line.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Ireland 1.847 over England
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    7-6, +.737 units, +6% ROI
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Ireland -2.5 2.190 over Wales on Saturday
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Scotland +17 1.925 at England on Saturday
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Italy over France moneyline +240 in 1 hour
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