Don't really want to get into it, but mostly just the #'s being thrown around about how much ev is out there for the taking.
We don't want to be giving out false information, and I don't believe we have been. Most of the info we've shared are from Pro players who have a greater understanding of the industry. We feel the Q&As have provided good information.
It's a new industry for us and one of our goals is to find out if there really is a lot of +Ev out there for the taking.
Completely understand not wanting to get into it on the forum, and appreciate that approach. If you would like to email me about your thoughts or concerns, or even on something you think we could maybe do differently, I'm always available and enjoy good conversation. I can be reached at [email protected]
In the end, we are just learning about the industry ourselves, and hope to provide a place where other newcomers can learn and expand their knowledge. We think there's a lot of possibilities left to explore in DFS, and are excited about getting more involved.
We don't want to be giving out false information, and I don't believe we have been. Most of the info we've shared are from Pro players who have a greater understanding of the industry. We feel the Q&As have provided good information.
.
The 6 and 7 figure earnings I've seen quoted are non-sense. Obviously people have hit big scores and won those numbers, but no one has an expectation of winning that much.
We're very curious here about the similarities between sports betting and daily fantasy, and whether there's any overlap on the skills and strategies used to succeed. I think what we've generally found (or, I should say what I have personally found anyway) is that outside of the basic concepts like money management and discipline, there's very little correlation between the two.
They are actually almost 100% the same. You are attempting to you use past stats to project future player performance. If you are able to do this successfully (and this requires a lot of work and very good models) the differences in the way games are set up in DFS and sportsbetting are a minor detail that is easily solved.
The 6 and 7 figure earnings I've seen quoted are non-sense. Obviously people have hit big scores and won those numbers, but no one has an expectation of winning that much.
I think your statement is fair. In our Q&A we asked what the top DFS earners are making, which obviously is in the 6 to 7 figure range because of the big scores. Possibly a better question we could ask in a future Q&A would be about how much, on average, could a person expect to make a year from DFS, if they treated it as a full time job (or something along those lines).
They are actually almost 100% the same. You are attempting to you use past stats to project future player performance. If you are able to do this successfully (and this requires a lot of work and very good models) the differences in the way games are set up in DFS and sportsbetting are a minor detail that is easily solved.
This simply isn't 100% true according to some pros. Some DFS Pros don't use models and don't use past stats to form their lineups (this is just what I've seen them write at other places, maybe they're not telling the full truth). Honestly, I agree with your take on it, the similarities would seem to be almost 100% and it makes sense, it's just an observation I've found from reading about as many Pros as I can. Which I guess begs the question, how the heck are they forming their lineups?
They don't use past stats to form their lineups? So what do they pick at random? If you aren't using past performance then Lebron James could be Michael Beasley for all you know.
My guess would be nearly all of the so called DFS pros that are out there talking about themselves will not be (or aren't now) long term winners. When you have proprietary methods that make you money, sharing them with the public is a good way to kill your earnings. This is what happened in the poker market. I do see a lot of poker players playing DFS so maybe they are making the same mistakes. My guess is they are just mostly full of shit. The professional sports bettors I know that are winning at daily fantasy certainly aren't out on the forums talking about it.
They don't use past stats to form their lineups? So what do they pick at random? If you aren't using past performance then Lebron James could be Michael Beasley for all you know.
My guess would be nearly all of the so called DFS pros that are out there talking about themselves will not be (or aren't now) long term winners. When you have proprietary methods that make you money, sharing them with the public is a good way to kill your earnings. This is what happened in the poker market. I do see a lot of poker players playing DFS so maybe they are making the same mistakes. My guess is they are just mostly full of shit. The professional sports bettors I know that are winning at daily fantasy certainly aren't out on the forums talking about it.
Pretty similar to sports betting. U don't think there are guys out there making mid 6 figures at least?
Pretty similar to sports betting. U don't think there are guys out there making mid 6 figures at least?
Maybe at the top it's mid-6 figures. I'd figure more like low 6figures, I know that's possible. I was taking issue with the high6 to 7 quoted a few places here.
Key difference: in sports betting, a capper has no advantage to making someone else a better sports bettor.
In DFS, if you can educate someone just enough to feel competent, but not quite well enough to beat you, you are convincing them to enter tournaments.
The Rotogrinders crew's primary goal is to accomplish the latter, sharing tons of basic research and tools (duh, players playing in high total games will score more points) but keeping the secret sauce / algorithms to themselves.
Key difference: in sports betting, a capper has no advantage to making someone else a better sports bettor.
In DFS, if you can educate someone just enough to feel competent, but not quite well enough to beat you, you are convincing them to enter tournaments.
The Rotogrinders crew's primary goal is to accomplish the latter, sharing tons of basic research and tools (duh, players playing in high total games will score more points) but keeping the secret sauce / algorithms to themselves.
It's almost exactly the same in sports betting. One of the main reasons it's gotten much tougher to win at sportsbetting in recent years is countermeasures the books had to take simply because they aren't getting a big enough flow of money from losing bettors anymore.
In DFS you may be directly taking money from some square, but in sports betting you are too just with the book as the conduit.
Maybe at the top it's mid-6 figures. I'd figure more like low 6figures, I know that's possible. I was taking issue with the high6 to 7 quoted a few places here.
All of the mentions have been directly quoted from either reputable articles or someone in the industry, so I don't know what else we can do to get a more concrete number?
Q: How much money are some of the top players at DraftDay making annually? Is there a good chunk who have turned this into a full-time gig? Or, on a broader scale, how much money would you guess some of the top DFS players in the country are making?
A: "Our top players are easily making into the low-to-mid six figures. Most of the best players have a specialty in one sport that they either stick to or focus most of their time on. Across the industry there are a decent number of players netting seven figures across the many sites."
If the top players on DD are making that much (a site which doesn't offer as large scale prizes) I would think it makes sense to believe his final statement saying there are a "decent number" of guys netting 7 figures. Again, we can only go by what reputable sources, like Forbes, tells us. If you come across other sources citing different, please feel free to share as we really are curious to learn more about the industry.
I think he's full of shit trying to drum up business. I've played there, it's isn't happening. The # he is quoting is probably gross winnings or some such nonsense. All of the sites reported players winnings are gross for a reason, it looks like a way to get rich to get people to deposit.
Uberx claims it's drivers can make up to 100k a year when the real number is around minimum wage.
Durito, fair point and I am not as versed in sports betting as you are, but I think I'd be more engaged in sports betting if the books facilitated me being a better bettor. Sort of like the blackjack dealer who helps you execute flawless basic strategy. You're still going to lose but not as rapidly. Might make you play more often.
I think the strategic approach of the RG group is the right one and I bet they turn a pretty penny individually, in addition to as an affiliate.
Maybe at the top it's mid-6 figures. I'd figure more like low 6figures, I know that's possible. I was taking issue with the high6 to 7 quoted a few places here.
I guess my question is... how do you know? I can understand why you'd be skeptical. Some of these people may be exaggerating to increase interest in the industry and get more fish playing with the thought, "I can make a million dollars!"
But it'd help if you had something to back this up other than just that you think it's ridiculous.
I guess my question is... how do you know? I can understand why you'd be skeptical. Some of these people may be exaggerating to increase interest in the industry and get more fish playing with the thought, "I can make a million dollars!"
But it'd help if you had something to back this up other than just that you think it's ridiculous.
I don't know, but this isn't blind conjecture either. I've played for a couple of years (and as worm said it used to be a lot easier, so I really doubt there are suddenly a ton of millionaires being made) and I know a couple of bigger players as well. The returns I've seen plus the liquidity that's available just doesn't translate into that kind of success. Maybe some of the bigger players hold a higher % of their gross winnings, but I doubt it. The industry is still so small that the entry of even a single +ev player can affect everyone's returns. Once all the players are +ev now no one is making any money. You need a shitload of square money to support a bunch of people making 100k a month.
NFL season there is a shitload of square money. I tend to agree with you that most people aren't clearing that kind of dough playing MLB in the summer.
I like the discussion we've steered into here, but apologies to procap as I feel like we've hijacked this thread and original question. I'm going to split this into two threads so his original question doesn't get lost in all of this. We can continue this interesting discussion in a new thread.
The industry is still so small that the entry of even a single +ev player can affect everyone's returns. Once all the players are +ev now no one is making any money. You need a shitload of square money to support a bunch of people making 100k a month.
Being a new DFS player myself this summer, I'm not familiar with how easy it was a couple years ago to be +EV but from what I've heard I agree with your statement.
I have a strong background in season long fantasy and decided to try the daily aspect. I know many season long players who are still very unfamiliar with DFS and hesitant to try it out. Based on statistics I've seen, that market is still virtually untapped. Do you think we'll eventually see a swarm of season long fantasy players make the switch to daily, and if so, would you expect the contests to become easier again (like they used to be) with so much more newbie money in play?
Could an argument be made that an influx of season long fantasy players would just make the DFS contests even harder, since those incoming would already have a foundation in fantasy and possibly be able to adapt quicker?
This thread is awesome. Just a bunch of conjecture by people who know nothing about the industry. It is not difficult to make six figures in dfs annually if you have a semblance of a clue and a big bankroll. You need to have a large starting bankroll and apply the theories of Nassim Taleb's investment strategy to do so but there is a lot of money to be made in gpps.
This thread is awesome. Just a bunch of conjecture by people who know nothing about the industry. It is not difficult to make six figures in dfs annually if you have a semblance of a clue and a big bankroll. You need to have a large starting bankroll and apply the theories of Nassim Taleb's investment strategy to do so but there is a lot of money to be made in gpps.
I'd love to hear how you think any of Taleb's ideas apply to dfs.
No doubt successful sports bettors like worm should have no problem winning at this. But, the idea that it's easy to make that kind of money and doesn't require advanced analytic ability is ridiculous.
If you are successful at sports betting you will ultimately be successful at dfs. At a basic level it is an information game and the two disciplines often times help each other. There is a large learning curve and part of it has to do with the industry in general, where you should be playing, where is there overlay, where are the softest games, etc. and the other part is just team composition in different scenarios and in different style tournaments. Also there is something to be said for having an extremely sophisticated knowledge of the formulas used to create the player salaries at different sites and how strategy can vary greatly depending on what site you are playing at.
As for Taleb's ideas. Perhaps this is an oversimplification as I dont profess to be a scholar of his ideas. I just read the Malcolm Gladwell piece on him but nevertheless in my mind his ideas apply in being very comfortable with losing the vast majority of all days you play if you are a gpp player as those tournaments and qualifiers are so top heavy with their payouts. All the real money is made if you win a big tournament or place high and you need to be willing to spend a large amount of money on qualifiers to win tickets into the tournaments with the million dollar first prize and multi million dollar prize pool. Grinding it out in the double ups is ok and you can make decent money but the real money is in being a gpp specialist.
The first thing sports betting people always ask me about dfs is how do you overcome the rake and the funny part is if you have some skill you can reduce the rake to less than the standard sports betting vig through freerolls, loyalty reward programs (rakeback) overlay, affiliate earnings, and bonuses.
This thread is awesome. Just a bunch of conjecture by people who know nothing about the industry. It is not difficult to make six figures in dfs annually if you have a semblance of a clue and a big bankroll. You need to have a large starting bankroll and apply the theories of Nassim Taleb's investment strategy to do so but there is a lot of money to be made in gpps.
What would be a recommended starting bankroll amount?
Not really sure how to answer that question since everyone has their own risk tolerance and imho the optimal way to play is to just go after the big prize pools. The q's to big contests are always where you will find the most overlay because dfs players are risk averse and dont play the long game. Q's can also be quite frustrating because you can blow a lot of money going for that one ticket and since there are no immediate cash prizes, just the q ticket a lot of people just wont play them. I guess I would say 100k. The thing to keep in mind about dfs is at this point it is mainly guys in their twenties and I would say mainly early twenties. Their tends to be a generation gap with fantasy sports as many people over the age of 45 didnt grow up with it and adding on the component of daily and salary caps makes it a foreign world to a lot of old school sharp sports bettors. There are 25-30 guys out there with large rolls but the vast majority of players have small bankrolls if they have one at all which gives somebody with a large bankroll and the ability to make double digit lineups in q's a huge advantage. The dfs world is hugely slanted in nearly all aspects to the big bankroll player, they have a massive advantage in all major championships.
Taleb's basic theory is that you should bet on low probability events with huge upside, and be willing to risk the probable outcome of losing a small amount of money. This alone would make him an advocate for GPP games, but it also seems to align with a contrarian approach. Things like stacking the 3-6 hitters on Pittsburgh @ Colorado instead of the 1-4 guys i grabbed in my $2 entry.
Why would stacking the 3-6 hitters in a Coors field game be contrarian? Often time contrarian thinking wins gpp's. Sometimes it doesnt. Depends on how big the gpp is and the combinations on a given night. Not interested in giving out screen names. Prefer to fly under the radar but wanted to join this board because I feel like it is the best sports betting forum in the world with the sharpest people started by the sharpest college sports bettor.
The DFS industry is growing to grow very fast and its next growth stage will be this NFL season where you will see multi million dollar prize pools every week and an influx of new money into the industry. I would hop aboard now if you are a good sports bettor.
This alone would make him an advocate for GPP games, but it also seems to align with a contrarian approach. Things like stacking the 3-6 hitters on Pittsburgh @ Colorado instead of the 1-4 guys i grabbed in my $2 entry.
Yeah was confused by this statement as well. Grabbing any hitters in Coors doesn't seem very contrarian at all.
was just reading this thread and figured it would be worth a bump since much has changed in the last 10 months or so.
how many of you are or personally know someone who is pulling in the kind of dough that was being tossed around earlier? anyone here able to make anywhere close to 6 figures off this? has anyone recently tried to become a pro?
it's probably a bad analogy, but the current state of DFS seems like the equivalent of texas hold em in 2003 right now.....gaining in popularity, lots more pros who are making it tougher to win, but still plenty of opportunity if you've got a clue what you're doing.
durito
Senior Member
Comments
Would you care to expand on this comment? What exactly looks like "nonsense"? Thanks.
We don't want to be giving out false information, and I don't believe we have been. Most of the info we've shared are from Pro players who have a greater understanding of the industry. We feel the Q&As have provided good information.
It's a new industry for us and one of our goals is to find out if there really is a lot of +Ev out there for the taking.
Completely understand not wanting to get into it on the forum, and appreciate that approach. If you would like to email me about your thoughts or concerns, or even on something you think we could maybe do differently, I'm always available and enjoy good conversation. I can be reached at [email protected]
In the end, we are just learning about the industry ourselves, and hope to provide a place where other newcomers can learn and expand their knowledge. We think there's a lot of possibilities left to explore in DFS, and are excited about getting more involved.
The 6 and 7 figure earnings I've seen quoted are non-sense. Obviously people have hit big scores and won those numbers, but no one has an expectation of winning that much.
They are actually almost 100% the same. You are attempting to you use past stats to project future player performance. If you are able to do this successfully (and this requires a lot of work and very good models) the differences in the way games are set up in DFS and sportsbetting are a minor detail that is easily solved.
I think your statement is fair. In our Q&A we asked what the top DFS earners are making, which obviously is in the 6 to 7 figure range because of the big scores. Possibly a better question we could ask in a future Q&A would be about how much, on average, could a person expect to make a year from DFS, if they treated it as a full time job (or something along those lines).
This simply isn't 100% true according to some pros. Some DFS Pros don't use models and don't use past stats to form their lineups (this is just what I've seen them write at other places, maybe they're not telling the full truth). Honestly, I agree with your take on it, the similarities would seem to be almost 100% and it makes sense, it's just an observation I've found from reading about as many Pros as I can. Which I guess begs the question, how the heck are they forming their lineups?
My guess would be nearly all of the so called DFS pros that are out there talking about themselves will not be (or aren't now) long term winners. When you have proprietary methods that make you money, sharing them with the public is a good way to kill your earnings. This is what happened in the poker market. I do see a lot of poker players playing DFS so maybe they are making the same mistakes. My guess is they are just mostly full of shit. The professional sports bettors I know that are winning at daily fantasy certainly aren't out on the forums talking about it.
Pretty similar to sports betting. U don't think there are guys out there making mid 6 figures at least?
Maybe at the top it's mid-6 figures. I'd figure more like low 6figures, I know that's possible. I was taking issue with the high6 to 7 quoted a few places here.
In DFS, if you can educate someone just enough to feel competent, but not quite well enough to beat you, you are convincing them to enter tournaments.
The Rotogrinders crew's primary goal is to accomplish the latter, sharing tons of basic research and tools (duh, players playing in high total games will score more points) but keeping the secret sauce / algorithms to themselves.
It's almost exactly the same in sports betting. One of the main reasons it's gotten much tougher to win at sportsbetting in recent years is countermeasures the books had to take simply because they aren't getting a big enough flow of money from losing bettors anymore.
In DFS you may be directly taking money from some square, but in sports betting you are too just with the book as the conduit.
All of the mentions have been directly quoted from either reputable articles or someone in the industry, so I don't know what else we can do to get a more concrete number?
In a past Q&A with DraftDay's customer success manager, Scott Redick, this was his response to our question:
Q: How much money are some of the top players at DraftDay making annually? Is there a good chunk who have turned this into a full-time gig? Or, on a broader scale, how much money would you guess some of the top DFS players in the country are making?
A: "Our top players are easily making into the low-to-mid six figures. Most of the best players have a specialty in one sport that they either stick to or focus most of their time on. Across the industry there are a decent number of players netting seven figures across the many sites."
If the top players on DD are making that much (a site which doesn't offer as large scale prizes) I would think it makes sense to believe his final statement saying there are a "decent number" of guys netting 7 figures. Again, we can only go by what reputable sources, like Forbes, tells us. If you come across other sources citing different, please feel free to share as we really are curious to learn more about the industry.
Uberx claims it's drivers can make up to 100k a year when the real number is around minimum wage.
I think the strategic approach of the RG group is the right one and I bet they turn a pretty penny individually, in addition to as an affiliate.
I guess my question is... how do you know? I can understand why you'd be skeptical. Some of these people may be exaggerating to increase interest in the industry and get more fish playing with the thought, "I can make a million dollars!"
But it'd help if you had something to back this up other than just that you think it's ridiculous.
I don't know, but this isn't blind conjecture either. I've played for a couple of years (and as worm said it used to be a lot easier, so I really doubt there are suddenly a ton of millionaires being made) and I know a couple of bigger players as well. The returns I've seen plus the liquidity that's available just doesn't translate into that kind of success. Maybe some of the bigger players hold a higher % of their gross winnings, but I doubt it. The industry is still so small that the entry of even a single +ev player can affect everyone's returns. Once all the players are +ev now no one is making any money. You need a shitload of square money to support a bunch of people making 100k a month.
Being a new DFS player myself this summer, I'm not familiar with how easy it was a couple years ago to be +EV but from what I've heard I agree with your statement.
I have a strong background in season long fantasy and decided to try the daily aspect. I know many season long players who are still very unfamiliar with DFS and hesitant to try it out. Based on statistics I've seen, that market is still virtually untapped. Do you think we'll eventually see a swarm of season long fantasy players make the switch to daily, and if so, would you expect the contests to become easier again (like they used to be) with so much more newbie money in play?
Could an argument be made that an influx of season long fantasy players would just make the DFS contests even harder, since those incoming would already have a foundation in fantasy and possibly be able to adapt quicker?
I'd love to hear how you think any of Taleb's ideas apply to dfs.
No doubt successful sports bettors like worm should have no problem winning at this. But, the idea that it's easy to make that kind of money and doesn't require advanced analytic ability is ridiculous.
As for Taleb's ideas. Perhaps this is an oversimplification as I dont profess to be a scholar of his ideas. I just read the Malcolm Gladwell piece on him but nevertheless in my mind his ideas apply in being very comfortable with losing the vast majority of all days you play if you are a gpp player as those tournaments and qualifiers are so top heavy with their payouts. All the real money is made if you win a big tournament or place high and you need to be willing to spend a large amount of money on qualifiers to win tickets into the tournaments with the million dollar first prize and multi million dollar prize pool. Grinding it out in the double ups is ok and you can make decent money but the real money is in being a gpp specialist.
The first thing sports betting people always ask me about dfs is how do you overcome the rake and the funny part is if you have some skill you can reduce the rake to less than the standard sports betting vig through freerolls, loyalty reward programs (rakeback) overlay, affiliate earnings, and bonuses.
What would be a recommended starting bankroll amount?
What name do you play under?
The DFS industry is growing to grow very fast and its next growth stage will be this NFL season where you will see multi million dollar prize pools every week and an influx of new money into the industry. I would hop aboard now if you are a good sports bettor.
Yeah was confused by this statement as well. Grabbing any hitters in Coors doesn't seem very contrarian at all.
how many of you are or personally know someone who is pulling in the kind of dough that was being tossed around earlier? anyone here able to make anywhere close to 6 figures off this? has anyone recently tried to become a pro?
it's probably a bad analogy, but the current state of DFS seems like the equivalent of texas hold em in 2003 right now.....gaining in popularity, lots more pros who are making it tougher to win, but still plenty of opportunity if you've got a clue what you're doing.