Betting Talk

Baseball math question

maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
edited April 2014 in Sports Betting
Is there a way to come up with a money line if a starting pitcher of one team(team A ) has a 38.3 chance of winning the game and a 36.9 chance of losing AGAINST the opposing pitcher(team B) whose odds of winning is 25.3 and losing is 47.7?

Team A would of course be the favorite but trying to figure out what would be the fair odds on the contest. Is there a way?

Comments

  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Not sure I follow, but try this

    http://www.chancesis.com/2010/10/03/the-origins-of-log5/
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Durito, thanks. Just what I was looking for.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    math guys would give you a better answer but i come up with almost pk em game
    not sure i follow as well
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Jets, at first I got 49% and change which seemed to low but the second time I got a 64.7% chance for Team A of winning which I believe is right. Was looking around the net for a calculator but no luck. I think its easier just to forget the chance of losing and just use the winning odds to get an answer.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jets96 wrote: »
    math guys would give you a better answer but i come up with almost pk em game
    not sure i follow as well

    Team A has a higher win probability (38 to 25) and a lower loss probability (37 to 47). How would that be pk?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    maidenguy wrote: »
    Jets, at first I got 49% and change which seemed to low but the second time I got a 64.7% chance for Team A of winning which I believe is right. Was looking around the net for a calculator but no luck. I think its easier just to forget the chance of losing and just use the winning odds to get an answer.

    64.7% makes much more sense than 49%.

    Are you trying to use historical stats against all opponents to come up with a line?
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    There is a site on the net where they list each starting pitcher chances of winning or losing the game(opposing each other) and I was just trying to convert it into a ML for the game.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Think a better question would be why you put credence in the numbers produced by the site you allude to.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Don't plan to. Just wanted to see how one would convert the percentages into a money line which Durito gave me the correct info.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Just when I thought this thread had climaxed on confusion.
Sign In or Register to comment.