Betting Talk

Fools Gold

imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
edited March 2014 in Sports Betting
Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks

Toronto has caught the betting world by surprise and has been chalked as a -1.5 favorite (currently -3) in Atlanta tonight. Raptors are a solid team who I believe have played well over the course of the last month or so but will fade them vs a team that is entering a good rhythm such as the Atlanta Hawks who are 1, battling for the 7-8th playoff spot in the East, and 2, have the momentum of a 4 game winning streak which includes last night in Charlotte snapping the Bobcats 7 game winning streak at home.

ATL +3

Also taking the Sacramento kings +1 at Home vs. Wall and the Wizards

Good luck to all
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Comments

  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    I'm on it.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    I like your play and haven't decided if I'm playing it Kinda tough playing Atlanta. As for Atlanta's playoff spot there 3 games in front of the Knicks and 11 of there next 15 are at home so if they want the 8 or 7 spot to play Miami or Indy Good Luck. Toronto is pretty much going to be in the 3/4 spot and will have the first round at home. Washington and Brooklyn are on there butts but Toronto's schedule the rest of the way should land them in no worst then 4th.

    The reason I like Atlanta in this game is because they play well as short home dogs this year but more important the word is out how good Toronto is on the road and most of the year they were the Dogs now with there Reputation as Road warriors there becoming road favorites which is a different mind set. Also Lowry cleared concussion tests Monday but isn't 100% dealing with the flu.

    Good Luck with your Atlanta bet.

    As for the Kings I'm on Washington. Really don't like a team coming off a 7 game eastern road trip even with a day off against a team who's also very good on the road. There are also so other factors.

    You do have the intangible with Atlanta, Benny is on your side.
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited March 2014
    FWIW I am on Toronto. 3rd game in 4 nights for Atlanta. Raptors have handled them easily both times earlier this year, including the first time when Horford was in the line up. Lastly ATL 6-10 on b2b nights.

    GL
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    FWIW I am on Toronto. 3rd game in 4 nights for Atlanta. Raptors have handled them easily both times earlier this year, including the first time when Horford was in the line up. Lastly ATL 6-10 on b2b nights.

    GL

    Can't argue with that there also 16-4 off a loss there last 20. They do fly under the Radar and I think I've said this before about two weeks ago they were the only team in the top 10 in offensive and defense. I know Miami was next. I just don't like them in the Favorite role tonight. Good Luck somebody has to win this game.
    I'll pass and stick with Washington.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    atl in very ,very bad subsets of mine....atl can beat up on the little guy not so much for the big guy recently , tor short rd FAV or DOG is good , atl about even as short home dog , am with you BK and there isnt even anyone close to you in the NBA ...well maybe
    luck to everyone either way

    bk on side not note they are i think 3-3 back to back when home,
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    But yet 83% of side action is on Toronto... I was on OKC last night but have not been posting on BT in a few months.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    But yet 83% of side action is on Toronto... I was on OKC last night but have not been posting on BT in a few months.

    See I get 59.1% that's why I have at least 6 places to go for that kind of numbers and you'll get 6 different numbers. What ever works for you is fine by me all I can say is Good Luck in your wagers. I was the first to post after you and thought Toronto was a bit high but as I said I could have made a case for both but to say 83% of people are on Toronto I feel you think your betting against the public. I have no answer for that it's not a debatable subject. Do you think the 83% moved the number from -1.5 to -3? it could just be people putting dots in bullet holes that say Toronto. Like Covers does and other places.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Congrats on Good Win. Keep it going
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Thank you
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Good catch on Atlanta.. I was on them today and yesterday.
  • BayOceanBayOcean Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    Thank you

    Yes,thank you for atl and sac--
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    I am basing my investment on 2 keys that I believe will play a factor in tonight's game between the Timberwolves and Mavericks.

    1) Health/Rest--- Coach Carlisle has done a great Job in resting his Veteran players through the season --Dirk, Vince & Marion--Minn. has taxed their key players highly IMO due to injuries--high mins for Love, Rubio and co... This time of the year is where it shows up in the Wins & Losses column!

    2) Bench Play--Mavericks bench has been solid for good part of the season

    3) Mavericks sputtered around and shot 42% fg / 33% 3 pt/ out rebounded 57 -36 by the Celtics in their last home game!!

    I expect a better overall performance by the Mavs tonight !!!

    2-0 YTD posts

    Dallas Mavericks -5

    Good luck to all
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    2) Bench Play--Mavericks bench has been solid for good part of the season

    Mavs 3rd best bench, T'Wolves 3rd worst on the season.
    Since the AllStar Break: Mavs 6th (but with same efficiency, so a couple of teams jumped them) and T'Wolves still in the bottom at 4th worst.

    I'm on this one also. Luck
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Thanks for the statistical backing Obi One--
    I am counting that the Mavericks will do a better job on the Boards as well!!

    Looking into the Pacers vs. Knicks matchup
    I May invest sum stock in this one---

    Any thoughts?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Game looks solid with Minnesota just about out of the playoff picture and Nikola Pekovic 18pts 9 RB a game not playing for Minnesota. Good Luck to you guys.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    I played the 'under 195.5' there. The side is a coin flip IMO. New York been winning, but against very weak competition. Pacers not playing like their old selves from the 1st half of the season. In their case it's not boredom like with the Miami Heat. Their already mediocre offense is really sputtering. Defense is still there and should be able to contain the Knicks.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    I am counting that the Mavericks will do a better job on the Boards as well!!

    It always helps if a team gets the rebounds, but somehow most teams don't put that big of an emphasis on it anymore. At least not on offensive rebounding. The new wave of advanced-statistics driven coaches have put their priorities elsewhere. Just something I thought I'd share. Got it from Zach Lowe.

    "Heat may post lowest offensive rebounding rate in NBA history. Says a lot that extreme low teams are all recent: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=team_totals&lg_id=NBA&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&c1stat=orb_pct&c1comp=lt&c1val=.205&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=wins "
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Wow, great info ... Makes perfect sense...My question is, why did the oddsmakers decide to open w the Pacers as favorites on the road given that N.Y is on a current 6 game win streak? I get the point of winning vs weaker opposition but I capped it as N.Y.-2

    I am gonna continue breaking this one down-- am finding it very interesting
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Pacers vs Knicks

    N.Y. Knicks on a current 6 game win streak and they open as 3 point Home Dog?

    I may be wrong but this line, I believe was set as Pacers-3 with the intention of bringing out all that N.Y. Base money ---I capped it as Knicks -2 as the Pacers are on the road and are just coming back around to playing their brand of ball--no major injuries to report on Pacers side meanwhile Isaiah Thomas jr has been making a splash as of late, Carmello has been ball hoggin, Amare Stot has been chipping in and their big man Tyson Chandler has been contributing to this 6 game win streak of weaker opposition as Obi mentioned earlier.

    I like the Pacers to take this game over in the 2nd half w their Defensive Mindset vs a Hollow knick team...
    G Hill--ex spur has been producing some good play meanwhile Paul George and crew are healthy.


    YTD 2-0

    PACERS -1.5
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Dont take this the wrong way but if you lined this game KNICKS -2 your wrong , not even close. Pinny opened at -2.5 ,am sure they want knicks backers, jackson and the big winning stk and all the excitment of the big apple, not going for it, I have Pacers -4 , BUT that being said the market is closing the gap towards your number ...but in a near pk game my money is on the pacers they are 14-3 st up against losing teams and knicks are 2-8 st up vs winning teams in the 2nd half of season.. good luck, nice to see another nba capper here.
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    It is quite obvious that I am a rookie capper and learning on the fly but yes, I understand what you are saying--thank you for your feedback.

    The main objective here is to gather data from different sources in order to make an informed betting decision.

    Am all about winning so yeah, let's hope the Pacers outperform the Knicks tonight!!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    How do you come up with your lines,do you get them from some other source or a model ? I doubt you can go forward by just guessing what the line should be
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Took a Beating last night...looking to bounce back by fading the T-wolves
    Houston -6.5
    Also on

    Portland-4.5

    2-2 Ytd
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    where did you find Houston -6.5 or do you mean -7.5
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    My bad. ----

    Houston -7.5
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    My bad. ----

    Houston -7.5

    I really like that play and I'm playing it also I hope it's not "Fool's Gold" JK
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Huge Card on the NBA hardwood tonight !
    Will be on multiple games but am starting off with
    Buying this one early


    Atlanta -6
    Am liking their chemistry and ball movement as of late.
    Pelicans will be of little resistance.

    4-2 YTD
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Adding :

    Mavericks -8.5
  • imported_fools_goldimported_fools_gold Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    Sacramento Kings +8

    4-2 YTD
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited March 2014
    imported_fools_gold wrote: »
    Sacramento Kings +8

    4-2 YTD


    Okay the 4-2 YTD part we got in the first post. JK Good Luck
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