Pretty dreadful day for Sixth Sense...
RonyBallgame
Senior Member
…a 1-8 day (and most were not even remotely close) to finish the regular season 46-54. Whatever edge Kellen once had, it seems he has it no longer. Two years of following is enough for me; will be surprised if RAS continues the relationship into next season.
Comments
You mean you checked StevieY's site? He only had one NFL play today; Sixth Sense had a few more.
Sorry. Yes you were right I went to his by mistake. I always check up on both to see how they are doing. Just wasn't paying attention.
I've been following Sixth Sense for nearly 8 seasons now, and last year (was terrible) and this year (he was lousy again). The problem is that ever since he joined RAS, the following occurred:
- Scott stopped winning, lost last 2 seasons combined badly
- Stopped producing game-day write-ups and analysis (which I actually enjoyed reading)
- Subscription COST went UP
- Results went DOWN (Lost a bankroll if you combined both NFL seasons)
I won't be re-signing for another 9th season. Not when he still charges ridiculous amounts, and got lazier with his picks (no writeups now and poor results).
That's my 2 cents from a disappointed customer!
Ivan
I agree with this. However, Scott clearly doesn't have anything very valuable or he wouldn't have the results he has had.
I feel bad even entering this thread because I am not a paid subscriber. But man, I just don't know how people could live with themselves for charging people for a bad product. I get losing weeks, losing months, but you can't have a losing year as a service in my opinion. I had RAS about 3-4 years ago when he lost about 10 units in cbb. It was painful, and I was only 24 at the time. I wish Scott would refund all his clients their money back. Even though I'm sure that doesn't even put a dent in their real losses I just feel it would be the right thing to do.
FYI - I don't even like to have a losing day posting at bt, let alone a whole year and charging people for my crap. Different strokes for different folks
I mean this constructively... you continue to sound like you really shouldn't be gambling if you can't handle prolonged downswings.
StevieY has been giving out plays for almost 15 years, sometimes free, mostly for a fee... he's had some losing seasons in some sports, but is well ahead overall. It's all about the long run. One season, especially in a sport with few picks like NFL, doesn't mean a whole lot.
#yoshing
No argument there.
I understand it is hard, and very unlikely that any service won't have a losing year. But to have back to back seasons like sixth sense has had, tells me that he isn't capable of adapting. As Ed noted in a thread about a week ago, this years cbb has been different, and I agree with him. If you have noticed, steam hasn't faired very well this year so far. But RAS has managed to adapt so far this year and is up 8 units and picking 55/56 pct. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't pay for someone who isn't capable of adapting to current market conditions, and so far, from what I've seen from Scott he isn't capable of that. I understand its still a relatively small sample size, but at the end of the day, he has still lost alot of people alot of money and I don't know how anyone can justify that. ( Atleast since Ed has endorsed him) Maybe kahuna is right, I am spoiled from RAS, and he is the only guy I follow and have ever followed. He has been great to me and I would never deny that. Basically, I'm just disappointed that Scott hasn't produced winners, and still continues to not participate here at BT. I don't think it's the right thing to do to Ed nor his followers.
I think his service costs around 800$ a year. I would probably be betting 800$ a unit then if I was a subscriber. I would be down 25-30k over the last 2 years. I would bet my life on it, that if I started following him 2 years ago and rode it out for 10 more years I would still be down money. That is how I am looking at him as I evaluate his talent. I don't think he would win enough units going forward from here to regain all the money I've already lost. You also have to factor in the cost of the service. That's just my opinion. I regret even putting my nose in this thread.
I respectively disagree. Week 17 provides some of the best value during the NFL season. I had nine plays myself.
Your earlier post made it sound like you couldn't fathom nor handle a service ever having a losing year.
And while I understand there are losing seasons there also should be something given to the fact that his followers are paying customers. As soon as he was "endorsed" by RAS his subscription costs went up. He then went on to have an absolute disaster of a season (especially if you followed his recommended 3% of BR per play). This year he goes back and fourth hovering slightly below 0 most of year releasing 4-6 plays/week. Gets to the final week and throws a hailmary with 9 plays that fails miserably.
While I understand there are bad seasons, losing years etc at some point there has to be some room to vent at the guy that sold me a steaming pile. When RAS had a losing season he came back and next year was sold with a guarantee.
More just a random rant I guess, Good luck going forward
Guy averaged ~6 plays per week for whole season. So I don't think having nine was outrageous.
Methodology for handicapping doesn't last forever because the books get sharper every day, and more importantly so does the competition (fellow handicappers). People shouldn't overreact to short-term results, but at 43% across nearly 200 plays the past two seasons, some simple math tells you the edge is very likely gone here.
Scott isn't the one who updates the CLV, so if there are mistakes it is the fault of the person I have updating his results. If can point out the games in question, will get it corrected ASAP. Thanks.
I realize that you're probably a busy man, but it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out the input error.
On a side note, it strikes me as more than just a little odd that you insta-reply whenever somebody calls out anything RAS on any other forum, but durito points out a glaring error on your own forum for one of your sponsored touts and it takes one of my posts to finally get attention called to it?
Something doesn't add up (besides the huge CLV error), but here you go. Would you like me to use gotomypc and fix it for you as well?
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/175546-Kellen-clv-on-totals
I was a bit concerned that he released ARI -2.5 when he had all week to get a better line and I'm unaware of any new info that came out, although I may have missed something, and he doesn't seem to be making a habit of that. Another concern is that -2.5 -110 is also quite a stretch for grading there, as the play was released at 730am PST on Sunday and I believe Pin had -2.5 -116 and BM had -3 +105, so he'd have had to grade at -2.5 -121 or -3 +105 if he were posting here. I'm inclined to believe the grading is merely an oversight on a busy day with lots of line movements (or maybe I made a mistake) -- in 10 years of subscribing to Kellen, I've found him to be extremely fair with grading. In previous years when a game fell close to a number, he polled his subscribers to see what line they got, and a few times I thought he graded his plays too harshly and took a push or loss when he should have taken a win or push, because he was getting input from people with too few outs or who weren't betting immediately.
More concerning is the lack of CLV this year, which is listed as +0.23 points, which is essentially no CLV at all when we include that almost all of his plays move a bit upon release, and the RAS-style release method, as opposed to the emails in previous years, cause immediate line movement because people wait to fire immediately, causing some immediate steam.