I've never seen worse luck that someone that...
RonyBallgame
Senior Member
..consistently bets unders in playoff baseball. It is utterly amazing how these overs keep hitting over and over (pun intended). Another amazing one just goes down in this Cards/Pirates game.
Comments
I am absolutely disgusted right now. This game had so many bloopers that fell in and infield singles, its not even funny. I was really hoping they would walk kozma to get to wainwright there, but I guess no one in their right mind would every be scared of kozma. It was just sickening to see the under lose on yet another infield single, though.
Bet tiger games under. That's always +EV
Can you elaborate on this?
mrwanker
All Tiger games are 83 -76 to the Over 47 -31 at home and 36 -45 on the road. So I really not getting that statement but I sure hope your right today.
I usually agree with you but I think your a little off on this one regarding Verlander. I agree his year was nothing to talk about but his last 3 starts all on the road He's pitched 19 innings 13 hits 0 Runs Walked 5 K'd 33 pretty sick numbers and one of the games as you know was against Oakland and Gray.
I'll accept that as true for the season. But for the last 3 weeks, they haven't been able to score at all. I don't think you can compare totals before Crabera got hurt with recent totals for example. These guts haven't hit in weeks
His K rate is still high this year, but fastball velocity way down and BABIP way up. This is after a contract year. Draw your own conclusions, but my takeaway is that he's been juicing for at least the last two years; the immediate decline in velocity reflects that. He's still racking up K's but when he gets hit, he gets hit harder. This is not the same JV.
Take a look at every pitcher who has logged 200+ innings year after year. Somewhere in the 6-8 year range of doing it every year(and in the case of those mentioned below plus him, well over 200), they start to lose their fastball. He's right on target with Halladay, Sabathia, etc. He's not a God. They all have to learn to pitch without it eventually. This is his adjustment year.
On Gray, I will assume he will be on a very tight leash. Nothing scares me more than letting a team face someone for a 2nd time, days after seeing him for the first time ever and doing nothing. It's one of those, if the kid got lit the first time, usually does well the 2nd time if he is legit. If he throws well the first time, he usually gets hit the 2nd time because he tries to do the same thing and while you can get away with stuff in the minors, that don't play well in the show.
I agree that this isn't the same JV and your reasoning makes sense and also the amount of innings that Leyland makes him pitch the last two years with at times big leads doesn't do him any good also. Close to 500 innings just the last two years also has to have an effect. You know what I find interesting is the Colon was 18-6 with a 2.37 ERA Juice of course and opens as a +109 home dog and gets replace by a Rookie Kid with 10 starts Excellent move on the A's part and it just may get them to Boston. My eyes lite up when I seen Colon was starting the 5th game and then a feeling of remorse when I found out that it was to be Gray instead. I have Detroit +205 for the series and I don't believe in Hedging but I also believe I have a great chance of not cashing. Maybe (Hopefully) another cycle started in late Sept.
For the sake of my over, I hope you're right abut Gray. But when it comes to losing the fastball, I'm still not sold that that's all it is. My guess is that most "adjustment years" just so happen to coincide with post-contract years. Actually this would be a fun side project for the fall. Might do a blog post about it.
Decisive games usually are played very tight so normally I like to steer clear of overs but this one has the smell of an over. I'm sure Melvin will be as quick as Maddon was yesterday with the hook(at least he should be). When Johnny Wholestaff gets involved in playoff games, usually good for unders. I'd lean over but maybe slightly more lean Detroit(and despite living in Michigan my entire life, I hope I am completely wrong with that).
Brilliant call Stevie. Too early to know how the game goes of course, but you were right about Gray the 2nd time.
Haven't been watching but it looks like the Tigers have blown a few good scoring chances. Kid must be battling.
Turned it on at half of the NFL game. He isn't fooling anyone.
I saw him in the 5th. He's on today. If he doesn't blink, Oakland will be lucky to get a runner on base much less score. His pitch count was fine. They won't need anyone else tonight.