Betting Talk

CFB Season Pick Thread

135

Comments

  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Wow! Nice year!
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Wow! Nice year!

    Thank you very much. I'm not going to lie, it feels really good to see all the hard work paying off. I don't expect to hit over 80% when going against the market, but I will say most of that was more so poor market timing than poor handicapping.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    procap wrote: »
    Thank you very much. I'm not going to lie, it feels really good to see all the hard work paying off. I don't expect to hit over 80% when going against the market, but I will say most of that was more so poor market timing than poor handicapping.

    How long have you been betting? What's your story? I like to learn about people first before I tail them and you seem like someone I would like to tail
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    How long have you been betting? What's your story? I like to learn about people first before I tail them and you seem like someone I would like to tail

    I've been handicapping for about seven years, the first four or so were on a recreational basis and I've started taking it very serious in hopes of making it a profession. I'm not really interested in discussing my methods on a public forum, and I hope you can understand that, but I will say I don't do anything too crazy. Basically fundamental handicapping and math models coupled with really knowing football and the betting market. I estimate my edge to be roughly 55.00% across all sports, but given the grind of this industry, I'm highly considering moving towards football only with maybe some college hoops mixed in.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Sorry I wasn't referring to your methods at all. Was more curious on your age, how long you have been betting, that type of stuff etc. thank you and good luck
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/14

    312 Clemson -10 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    363 Oregon State +14 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    348 UMass +7.5 -110
    367 Oklahoma State -2.5 -115
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    332 Rutgers +1.5 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    311 Georgia Tech vs Clemson ov59 -110
    363 Oregon State vs Arizona State ov64.5 -110
    400 Washington State vs Arizona un66 -110

    I know I usually post my totals before Pinny has them, but FWIW, I use the Pinny open & close to average my CLV. There hasn't been a single time where I posted a total on Tuesday and Pinny dealt something different Wednesday morning.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    WVU vs Kansas un50 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    396 Arkansas State -7 -115
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    323 Houston +17.5 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/16

    374 Navy -7 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Week 13

    YTD Results
    Overall: 48-22 68.57% +23.80u +0.92clv
    Sides: 31-9 77.50% +21.10u +0.58clv
    Totals: 17-13 56.67% +2.70u +1.38clv

    Only 12 of 70 plays (17.14%) produced negative CLV. I am 10-2 (83.33%) +7.80u in these games.
  • stillcrazystillcrazy Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    really fine work pc. thanks
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/23

    204 Ole Miss +3 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/23

    104 Ohio -4 -110
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    procap wrote: »
    11/23

    104 Ohio -4 -110

    My apologies, this game is 11/19.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    11/23

    184 Oklahoma State +8.5 -110
    200 Louisiana Tech +3.5 -110
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    procap wrote: »
    11/23

    184 Oklahoma State +8.5 -110
    200 Louisiana Tech +3.5 -110

    Curious on your thoughts about the Baylor/ ok st game. Thanks
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Curious on your thoughts about the Baylor/ ok st game. Thanks

    I'll keep this pretty general, but I have this lined at Baylor -7 and think it's a great spot for Gundy's team. Oklahoma State is one stinker away from being unbeaten - they are very good, very balanced, physical on defense. Baylor really hasn't played anyone good....I think Okie St can win outright.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    procap wrote: »
    I'll keep this pretty general, but I have this lined at Baylor -7 and think it's a great spot for Gundy's team. Oklahoma State is one stinker away from being unbeaten - they are very good, very balanced, physical on defense. Baylor really hasn't played anyone good....I think Okie St can win outright.

    Thank you. Good luck
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    procap wrote: »
    11/23

    204 Ole Miss +3 -110

    Sorry to ask another question, but how much do you like ole miss this week? Also do you personally bet all your plays for 1 unit or are some higher rated? If so , which ones are higher rated? Thank you
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Pro ..though i disagree with your ole miss play I do agree with your okla st play but what worries me a we bit is that that line movement , baylor was hit pretty good last night and though the +10 looks really good am thinking that it still goes a bit higher and if it does ill jump on okla st as well.
    Am not sure what am missing here but my line is -7 as well.

    good luck
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    jets96 wrote: »
    Pro ..though i disagree with your ole miss play I do agree with your okla st play but what worries me a we bit is that that line movement , baylor was hit pretty good last night and though the +10 looks really good am thinking that it still goes a bit higher and if it does ill jump on okla st as well.
    Am not sure what am missing here but my line is -7 as well.

    good luck

    I bet Baylor yesterday at 8.5. I think this game will depend on how they start. If Baylor comes out slow then ok st could beat them, but if Baylor starts well they should have no problem IMO
  • Raceany1Raceany1 Member
    edited November 2013
    Procap, do you still like Ohio at -6? I missed it at -4. Thanks.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Sorry to ask another question, but how much do you like ole miss this week? Also do you personally bet all your plays for 1 unit or are some higher rated? If so , which ones are higher rated? Thank you

    No need to apologize for questions. Everything I post is weighted equally, so there's no difference between Ole Miss and anything else I've posted.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Raceany1 wrote: »
    Procap, do you still like Ohio at -6? I missed it at -4. Thanks.

    Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner, but this is playable up to -7.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    jets96 wrote: »
    baylor was hit pretty good last night and though the +10 looks really good

    That was very strange movement for a Monday. I have a hard time believing the 10 will hold, as that almost seems like a set up for later in the week.

    The only thing I can think of is StevieY or Dr Bob being on Baylor, but with the timing of the move, that doesn't make much sense.
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