Betting Talk

2013-14 Football/Basketball contrarians

JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
edited December 2013 in Sports Betting
Good luck this season! Plays are for a single unit unless otherwise noted.


8/31
180 Marshall over 66.5 -102
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Comments

  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited August 2013
    179 right? the over. Thanks peno.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited August 2013
    Go get 'em Pali, GL this year. BTW, I'm assuming you know you're going against the boss tonight.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited August 2013
    pretty whacky finish there contra. marshall did all they could to hit the over and then throw a pick in zone to end it. I was amazed they were still pushing to score in the end. tough one to swallow in the end.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2013
    Losing the under would have been tougher to swallow.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited August 2013
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Losing the under would have been tougher to swallow.

    couldn't agree more. it was just a flat out weird finish.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    There's a history to the old rivalry that was part of the reasoning behind the play. Knew that MU wouldn't take foot off the pedal but was counting on more points from Miami obv. Hope any followers got a push out of it anyway.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    0-1, -1.1u wtd/unwtd, +.5 CLV 1/0/0 beat close/tied close/lost close

    316 TEMPLE +3
    318 OHIO -5' (double play)

    Maybe a few more to come. Good luck this week!
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Some one just hammered N. Texas
  • turksureturksure Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    I'll give the 4, thank you.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    1-2, -1.2 unweighted/-.2 weighted, -.5 CLV (1/1/1)

    128 UCONN +7'
    134 SO ALA +10'
    190 UTAH -2 (double play)

    GL, if you try 'em
  • PeayManiaPeayMania Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    If you don't mind sharing your thoughts behind UCONN I'd appreciate it as I was leaning to Maryland.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Agree with 134 Pali, tough scheduling spot for WKU
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    PeayMania wrote: »
    If you don't mind sharing your thoughts behind UCONN I'd appreciate it as I was leaning to Maryland.


    Just think the line is a serious overreaction to the disparate results for both squads in the early going. Pretty good situation fading Maryland here off of their two home games and uconn with a lot of time to prepare. GL if you try it boss, won't be long until hoops season....this year's NCAA season is going to be fantastic IMO....so many fantastic returning players, so many fantastic new arrivals.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Hey Pali, I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on 114 Army. Stan travels east to play a noon game against an opponent they should have a tough time getting up for and next week they have ASU, the problem is the talent gap is so wide I would be worried about a blowout regardless of Stanfords lack of motivation. My card is pretty well set, I'm just trying to get some feedback on this one. I see where CRIS opened Stan 30 and it's now 28.5, not that means anything but still. Also I hope you don't mind me cluttering your thread, if it's a problem maybe you can start a discussion thread and have this one only for your picks, thanks.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    No opinion on that one, no problem with the clutter, my fan club is small, just keep the comments coming in here.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Hey Pali, I know you like Utah a lot this week, and I see where it's moved six points from the opener. I'm wondering if you have any inside info, or know why such a big move.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2013
    Considering the opener and current the Utah seems opposite of "Contrarian"
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    kane wrote: »
    Hey Pali, I know you like Utah a lot this week, and I see where it's moved six points from the opener. I'm wondering if you have any inside info, or know why such a big move.

    6 points is a large move so I took a look at #190 and Utah has moved from-2 (Opener) to the high of -3 -110 What am I missing.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2013
    CRIS
    09/08 06:36:47am #189 Oregon State 3 OPENER
    09/08 06:36:54am #189 Oregon State 2½
    09/08 06:37:43am #189 Oregon State 2½ev
    09/08 06:37:54am #190 Utah pk
    09/08 08:25:13am #190 Utah pk-13
    09/08 08:26:02am #190 Utah 1-13
    09/08 08:26:04am #190 Utah 1
    09/08 12:03:38pm #190 Utah 1½
    09/08 12:05:54pm #190 Utah 1½-11
    09/08 12:34:29pm #190 Utah 1½
    09/09 08:59:23am #190 Utah 1½-21
    09/09 08:59:50am #190 Utah 2-21
    09/09 08:59:51am #190 Utah 2
    09/09 09:55:45am #190 Utah 2-13
    09/09 09:57:38am #190 Utah 2½-13
    09/09 09:57:39am #190 Utah 2½
    09/09 09:59:10am #190 Utah 3
    09/09 09:59:11am #190 Utah 3-05
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    6 points is a large move so I took a look at #190 and Utah has moved from-2 (Opener) to the high of -3 -110 What am I missing.

    BM opened OR St -3 on Sunday morning and moved to PK within a minute and was Ut -2 about 2 hours later. I wouldn't call it a major move on a Sunday morning.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    6 points is a large move so I took a look at #190 and Utah has moved from-2 (Opener) to the high of -3 -110 What am I missing.

    Maybe Cris just hung a bad opener and the sharps banged Utah hard. OSU lost SU in week one as a 26 point fave and didn't cover last week either, so maybe that plays into it. The interesting thing also is, Utah plays their biggest game of the season next week against BYU, even though it's a non-conf game, it's their biggest rivalry. Interested to see where this line goes from here.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    You guys are being rather liberal in the use of the concept of "opener" IMO.....I (and I am guessing 99% of others) certainly never had a chance at the early number.

    No inside information, just a nice situation.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    StevieY wrote: »
    BM opened OR St -3 on Sunday morning and moved to PK within a minute and was Ut -2 about 2 hours later. I wouldn't call it a major move on a Sunday morning.

    Looking at the screen, I see four other games besides Utah with moves just as big, so I think Stevie is right, just a bad opener I guess.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    You guys are being rather liberal in the use of the concept of "opener" IMO.....I (and I am guessing 99% of others) certainly never had a chance at the early number.

    No inside information, just a nice situation.

    Pali, I'm not questioning your play at all, I have no opinion on this one, but to play devils advocate, with OSU not looking very good so far and Utah coming off a 63 point win and with their biggest rival next week, I curious why you feel this is a good spot for Utah? Obv I don't expect you to give away anything, but I'm interested in your thought process. If you would rather not discuss it, I totally understand. GL this week.
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited September 2013
    released an hour ago at -3 by a prominent paid tout
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    These early CRIS openers are as bad as some of BetOnLine's numbers. They seem to just be throwing out numbers to see what sticks. And, most of these moves have been towards what most power ratings say the games should be.

    Oregon St has a bunch of injuries-- especially on the O-line. This is a conference game, and the Utes will not be looking ahead. Utah -3 seems right to me.
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Jala, any leans on top 25 games? I'm in a pickem league and have to pick 5 games each week and am having a ton of trouble as a I don't like anything this week. Thanks in advance.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    Chisox6 wrote: »
    Jala, any leans on top 25 games? I'm in a pickem league and have to pick 5 games each week and am having a ton of trouble as a I don't like anything this week. Thanks in advance.

    Definitely far from official plays, but I lean tex tech, uk (will become an official play if # keeps rising), Nebraska, a/m, cal. At their current numbers, my favorite play of those would be Nebraska.

    I will more than likely have a play in the Marshall/OU game as well. Good luck this weekend chisox.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    my favorite play of those would be Nebraska.

    thoughts? play against the bruins or more towards huskers? gonna be quite the shootout and I just pray the kids can tackle this week and don't get lost out there on D. love the fact you are eyeing it though! GL this week.

    expect a big game from #44 of the blackshirts. the kid has raw talent/ability.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited September 2013
    Adding

    120 OHIO +8 (double play)


    Will be adding Nebraska at some point, newcombe.
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