Betting Talk

2013 MLB, The Doctor's Makin' Housecalls

Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
edited March 2014 in Sports Betting
Posted record: 2-1, +1.23

pending: 970 Norris +112 over Quintana
adding: 962 Zito -120 over Volquez
«134567…20

Comments

  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    6/18:

    914 Jimenez -117 over Santana
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    3-3, +.03
    6/19:

    957 Marcum +182 over Medlen
    960 Arroyo -132 over Locke
    961 Jackson +160 over Westbrook
    964 Porcello -138 over Tillman
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    3-3, +.03
    961 Jackson +160 over Westbrook

    I don't see better than the +157 at 5Dimes at the time of your post out of the record keeping list of books (5D/Pinny/BM).

    Also, belated welcome to the board! I believe I was out of town when you began posting plays a few days ago.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    My bad, I looked at the wrong thing. +157 it is. Thanks.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    My bad, I looked at the wrong thing. +157 it is. Thanks.

    No worries, GL.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    3-3, +.03
    6/19:

    957 Marcum +182 over Medlen
    960 Arroyo -132 over Locke
    961 Jackson +160 over Westbrook
    964 Porcello -138 over Tillman

    LOL GL to whoever just hit these. Marcum 168 now, Arroyo 135, Jackson 149, Porcello 153.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    LOL...It's Homer who else can it be...he's the only one awake at 6 am hounding lines :)

    Thanks for the picks Doc
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    That made me laugh cause the first thing I picked up on was I have two of those plays already, but have Bronson at 130 and Jackson at +167. Also, I didn't start shopping until 6:35 this morning, running late!!

    But for movement, maybe some big hitters like worm and lumpy hammers H's plays

    GL all
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited June 2013
    Still like Porcello?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Porcello's number came back, so yes.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Adding:

    970 Grimm +104 over Milone
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    homerplayer wrote: »
    That made me laugh cause the first thing I picked up on was I have two of those plays already, but have Bronson at 130 and Jackson at +167. Also, I didn't start shopping until 6:35 this morning, running late!!

    But for movement, maybe some big hitters like worm and lumpy hammers H's plays

    GL all

    I dont follow anyones plays, but fwiw I think hes been on the super right side of a few games (NYM and Cubs today, HOU (Norris) CLE (Kluber)) and has been on the stone wrong side of 2, SF (Zito) and CLE (Jiminez). I say this not because of line movement etc but because I was on same side of most and against on the last 2.

    Small sample but going forward I expect him to be on the right side more then not.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Not worried about about Porcello #s coming back... 4-3 record vs Tillman 7-2 has to take late money
    I like Detroit much more now :)
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Not worried about about Porcello #s coming back... 4-3 record vs Tillman 7-2 has to take late money
    I like Detroit much more now :)

    I added to my position. Porcello has quietly turned into a stud and nobody knows it yet, and I'm fine with the number coming back because it gives me hope that I can get value on him for a little while longer. It's possible that this is still the same guy and I'm overreacting to a month, but I don't think that I am because there's definite changes there that back up the results. It hasn't been the same pitcher. He's changed his approach and how often he's throwing each pitch, adjusted his release point, is striking out more and walking less, all while maintaining his gb tilt. He's 24 years old, has all the pedigree in the world but was rushed to the majors too quickly. I think he's figured it out. I'm all in on this kid.

    This is all not to mention that Tillman has been a luckbox this year, and Porcello has actually been unlucky (most notably in his start vs LAA that skewed his season numbers all out of whack).

    GL.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I added to my position. Porcello has quietly turned into a stud and nobody knows it yet, and I'm fine with the number coming back because it gives me hope that I can get value on him for a little while longer. It's possible that this is still the same guy and I'm overreacting to a month, but I don't think that I am because there's definite changes there that back up the results. It hasn't been the same pitcher. He's changed his approach and how often he's throwing each pitch, adjusted his release point, is striking out more and walking less, all while maintaining his gb tilt. He's 24 years old, has all the pedigree in the world but was rushed to the majors too quickly. I think he's figured it out. I'm all in on this kid.

    This is all not to mention that Tillman has been a luckbox this year, and Porcello has actually been unlucky (most notably in his start vs LAA that skewed his season numbers all out of whack).

    GL.

    Write up jinx. FML.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Doc, don't worry about it, its not over till the fat lady sings
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Write up jinx. FML.

    Maybe I'm asking for the obvious here,
    But did you consider Baltimore's line-up BA vs Porcello? Those numbers were averaging around .400. On the other hand Detroit's numbers vs Tillman were pretty mundane. While I like Porcello as a pitcher just like you, those numbers rang a big bell with me.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    Maybe I'm asking for the obvious here,
    But did you consider Baltimore's line-up BA vs Porcello? Those numbers were averaging around .400. On the other hand Detroit's numbers vs Tillman were pretty mundane. While I like Porcello as a pitcher just like you, those numbers rang a big bell with me.

    Sure is easier after the game starts.

    Regardless, I don't put much stock in BvP at all. Tango pretty much proved that it's a useless (non-predictive) stat and little more than noise.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Sure is easier after the game starts.

    Regardless, I don't put much stock in BvP at all. Tango pretty much proved that it's a useless (non-predictive) stat and little more than noise.

    Please don't get me wrong, this is not a low-blow I'm trying to deal here. I read your piece, read some other cappers too, saw the numbers, and decided not to bet it.

    Could you help me out: Who is Tango?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    Please don't get me wrong, this is not a low-blow I'm trying to deal here. I read your piece, read some other cappers too, saw the numbers, and decided not to bet it.

    Could you help me out: Who is Tango?

    Fair enough. Criticize me all you want, I'd just prefer it were before the game, otherwise it just looks bad imho. Anyways, here's The Book:

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1597971294

    A must read for anybody betting baseball.

    And here's a quote that they use to summarize batter vs. pitcher.

    Knowing a player will face a particular opponent, and given the choice between that player's 1,500 PA (plate appearances) over the past three years against the rest of the league or twenty-five PA against that particular opponent, look at the 1,500 PA.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Doc, this guy says Tango has a day job..
    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/01/why_you_shouldn.php
  • ggm1976ggm1976 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    Please don't get me wrong, this is not a low-blow I'm trying to deal here. I read your piece, read some other cappers too, saw the numbers, and decided not to bet it.

    Could you help me out: Who is Tango?

    Sylvester Stallone is Tango, an L.A. Narcotics cop.....
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    6/20:

    902 Bailey -178 over Cumpton
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    I apologize in advance for clutter, but I agree with the Tango BvP stance, to a point. Leaving my sig on this post for Al's insight. Watch enough baseball games and you will recognize that anamolies exist to every math rule. Was watching one the other night with former MLB players announcing and they went into a 5 minute discussion concerning certain guys hitting or not hitting certain pitchers. Again, I agree the vast majority of the time error on the side of caution and go with the 1,500 PA, but keep in mind sometimes those BvP numbers do matter. I wouldn't suggest an entire lineup to be indicative, but if you ever get the chance to hear former major leaguers address this very thing, it is quite interesting. Human beings will always muddle the math.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited June 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    because I was on same side of most and against on the last 2



    That's a super scientific way of determining what the right side is - The What Would Worm Do method, I likey - WWWD
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    That's a super scientific way of determining what the right side is - The What Would Worm Do method, I likey - WWWD

    Ha they also closed a lot better when I was on same side and a lot worse when I was opposite.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    ggm1976 wrote: »
    Sylvester Stallone is Tango, an L.A. Narcotics cop.....

    Kurt Russell was Cash if my memory is correct. Good luck with the picks tribe....
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Why you calling him Tribe? Is he related to tribe?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Kurt Russell was Cash if my memory is correct. Good luck with the picks tribe....

    3rd time you've referenced this. You're wrong. I promise ya that.

    I do know tribe very well, we work together on a lot of things. I can guarantee you that he'll never post here again.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    3rd time you've referenced this. You're wrong. I promise ya that.

    I do know tribe very well, we work together on a lot of things. I can guarantee you that he'll never post here again.

    It crossed my mind as well...Care to elaborate on why he wont ever post here again?
Sign In or Register to comment.