Betting Talk

How Sharp are the individuals who set lines?

lakers22lakers22 Senior Member
edited April 2013 in Sports Betting
maybe this is a stupid question i don't know..or maybe there isn't alot that goes into deriving a line other than some math computations based on avgs of performance...

what criteria are the individuals "who make the line" using?

just thinking out loud..but it seems like the most vocal people on this thread are very intelligent w/modeling and mathematical analysis..i would like to hear their thoughts on some things that i really don't know the answers to...



am i a "losing player" or "coin flipper" if i don't have a math model or computer power rankings to select my games (personally i only handicap the NHL, because i feel it is by far and away the one sport i truley understand to the deepest levels of playing/coaching and tactics)?


can you be a winning player by just researching and digesting all non-mathematical information about a team or selection of teams (or even a specific league)...


not sure this post will go anywhere but i'm interested to hear some thoughts on what people think...

thnx in adavance to those who do respond

Comments

  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    People who set the lines? Not very sharp. People who bet into the lines and move them? Sharp
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    People who set the lines? Not very sharp. People who bet into the lines and move them? Sharp

    This... but Bob Voulgaris' version was far more entertaining. :)
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    This... but Bob Voulgaris' version was far more entertaining. :)

    Ha link?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Ha link?

    http://www.slcdunk.com/2013/3/4/4062054/sloan-sports-analytics-conference-day-2-bullets

    Scroll down a bit for the embedded Tweets.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Opening lines are probably sharper than most sharps give the bookmakers credit for and certainly less sharp than the public thinks, if that makes any sense. It's basically a question for the book of how much work they want to do on it versus just opening with a small limit and letting the market take it where it goes. From reading interviews with bookmakers I'd imagine they mostly use basic models with adjustments for injuries and perhaps some public perception. Others just know what every line should be (high times).

    As for your other question, I would expect some disagreement but I generally no you cannot win unless you are doing some form of quantitative analysis. While I am sure that valuable information can be extracted out of watching games and looking at qualitative factors gambling is fundamentally a math problem. If the odds of your bet winning aren't greater than the odds you wagered at you are not going to make money. So whatever method you use to do your handicapping you are going to at some point need a way to quantify that information.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    durito wrote: »
    Opening lines are probably sharper than most sharps give the bookmakers credit for and certainly less sharp than the public thinks, if that makes any sense. It's basically a question for the book of how much work they want to do on it versus just opening with a small limit and letting the market take it where it goes. From reading interviews with bookmakers I'd imagine they mostly use basic models with adjustments for injuries and perhaps some public perception. Others just know what every line should be (high times).

    As for your other question, I would expect some disagreement but I generally no you cannot win unless you are doing some form of quantitative analysis. While I am sure that valuable information can be extracted out of watching games and looking at qualitative factors gambling is fundamentally a math problem. If the odds of your bet winning aren't greater than the odds you wagered at you are not going to make money. So whatever method you use to do your handicapping you are going to at some point need a way to quantify that information.

    Perfect answer imo.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    durito wrote: »
    From reading interviews with bookmakers I'd imagine they mostly use basic models with adjustments for injuries and ...public perception

    i always felt like this one has to be accounted for by most books when hanging an opener, but end up in a circular argument with myself because ~90% of the public isn't going to move the line, max bet or not. (not suggesting 90% of the public on one side).

    Now that HTT is dead would love to see more posts from you here at BT. This whole paragraphs thing is great, making the one liners a thing of the past?
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