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TheRebTheReb Senior Member
edited April 2013 in Sports Betting
For those that play, what would you do here?

Played the Venetian $600 DS yesterday, starting stack 15k, got to 1st break with just at 30k...come back from break, first hand I'm in SB with QcQh blinds are 100/200 with 25 ante. Early position raises to 525, player on his immediate left flats...folded to me. First question what would you do?
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Comments

  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Need more info on those two players.
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Need more info on those two players.

    Agree
  • Wurzz03Wurzz03 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I would just call. QQ is not a hand to reraise with.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    For those that play, what would you do here?

    Played the Venetian $600 DS yesterday, starting stack 15k, got to 1st break with just at 30k...come back from break, first hand I'm in SB with QcQh blinds are 100/200 with 25 ante. Early position raises to 525, player on his immediate left flats...folded to me. First question what would you do?

    Need to know their stack sizes but default in sb here should be about 2100 or so. Too tough to play passively out of posistion.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Reb, I tend to just call in this situation, let him think you are just calling with a couple connectors and your only in because you are already semi committed due to blind. Opening up options for you to hit a set of Q's where if he has Aces or Kings you'll have an easy laydown on after flop because he'll either bet strong or try and check raise his monster, and you'll easily pick up on it. Later in the tournament I would've re-raised to get a better feel for how exactly how strong he was. Lots of different ways to play it, and like Jala said it depends on the type of players your playing with. That early in the tournament that can be a hard thing to know for sure.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    stack sizes of both players?
    reads on either player?
    how many hands is the opener playing? is he raising or limping when he enters a pot?

    readless, this is a mandatory 3bet imo and most pros would agree, although if you have a read that this player will only stack off preflop with AA or KK, then you could make an argument for flatting preflop and outplaying him postflop.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Later in the tournament I would've re-raised to get a better feel for how exactly how strong he was.

    Later in a tournament, you are three betting this to five bet all in, and you are thanking the poker gods for having such a strong hand late in the tournament. Even the biggest of nits will get allin preflop late in a tournament with AJ+ and 88+ at a minimum. We have 62% equity vs that range!!!!
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Also, if the opener is 30 years old or younger, I would auto 3bet5bet QQ here, even if you are effectively 150bb deep because:

    1. Young guys have a 4bet bluff range, so your 5 bet will have fold equity.
    2. Young guys have a wider 4bet value range, even at 150bb deep JJ+/AK and maybe some TT, 99 and AQss depending on your image.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Ok, here's the read on the two players and stack sizes....the first one has just over starting stack /16k and has been fairly tight (about 45yrs old), in less than 10% hands preflop....player on his left however, much looser...in about 30% preflop has 21k stack (about 65yrs. old).
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Call first time - watch and wait - too early!
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Ok, here's the read on the two players and stack sizes....the first one has just over starting stack /16k and has been fairly tight (about 45yrs old), in less than 10% hands preflop....player on his left however, much looser...in about 30% preflop has 21k stack (about 65yrs. old).

    Mandatory 3 bet not close. 2100
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Mandatory 3 bet not close. 2100

    Totally agree.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I refuse to respond to OP's question despite my many years of playing poker professionally because of the inevitable bad beat story that will unfold on future streets!!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I refuse to respond to OP's question despite my many years of playing poker professionally because of the inevitable bad beat story that will unfold on future streets!!

    LOL!! No bad beat I promise
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Ok, time to move on...btw my image was very solid at the table having doubled stack with just one showdown...well if nothing else I want to A) limit my opposition and B) get a feel for where I am so I make it 1575 to go. Original raiser folds and my 65yr. opponent feels compelled to call. Flop 10s 7c 7s. What would you do?.....already saw the mandatory 2100 posts (interesting we will discuss after)
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Ok, time to move on...btw my image was very solid at the table having doubled stack with just one showdown...well if nothing else I want to A) limit my opposition and B) get a feel for where I am so I make it 1575 to go. Original raiser folds and my 65yr. opponent feels compelled to call. Flop 10s 7c 7s. What would you do?.....already saw the mandatory 2100 posts (interesting we will discuss after)

    Bet 2k. Preflop u should make it a little more because u don't want to invite 3 way pot OOP.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Bet for sure, 2800 sounds good. Worm and I may start to disagree on sizing, but this is for sure a bet.

    He isn't folding Tx, 89, 88,99. He probably doenst fold 22-66 cuz he will "put you on Ace King". He isn't folding a flush draw, and he probably will continue with J8 and J9. That is a lot of hands. He will stack you if he has a 7, but we aren't concerned about that. We have an overpair in a 3 bet pot against a loose player, YUM!
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Bet 2k. Preflop u should make it a little more because u don't want to invite 3 way pot OOP.

    Worm, the original raiser had folded to my reraise on a previous hand much earlier and I felt if he was not that strong he would fold again for that amt. which is exactly what happened...the other player I very much doubt would have thrown the hand away for the extra 500 but that's always the 64 mill dollar question in hind sight...this one I'm positive would not have.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    the other player I very much doubt would have thrown the hand away for the extra 500

    Knowing this, you should have put that extra 500 in, and maybe more. Your goal should be to reraise the largest amount that the looser player will call because

    1. you have his range crushed and
    2. he will have a harder time to fold postflop when he flops a pair and you flop an overpair because you have built a bigger pot
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    mikief87 wrote: »
    Knowing this, you should have put that extra 500 in, and maybe more. Your goal should be to reraise the largest amount that the looser player will call because

    1. you have his range crushed and
    2. he will have a harder time to fold postflop when he flops a pair and you flop an overpair because you have built a bigger pot

    Yes ur 3 betting for value here. And to charge them for playing in position vs you. Nothing wrong with 2500 if u think he's going to call off 10 percent of his stack with 86s
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Ok, so Mikie you bring up some great possibilities based on this player....so I bet out 3500. He raises to 9500 fairly quickly, what would you do?
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Ship it in. his range is Tx and flush draw heavy, he doesn't fold either of those once he raises this much.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Obviously this is the critical point in the hand, will wait for all opinions for discussion purposes afterwards.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    He has a good 50-60 combos of Tx hands and another 20 or so combos of flush draws so 70 hands conservatively and possibly some of the JJ combos, all of which we are crushing.

    He has at most 12 combos of 7x if we give him A7s,K7s,97s, 87s 76s 75s which of course crush us

    that is a 70-12 ratio conservatively.

    That is a rough range and I believe that it is much wider based on what I have read so far, but I am trying to keep it simple.

    He is older, so I wouldn't be surprised if he were to raise TJo or 55 here to "see where he was at" (which btw, I think is horrible to do in any form of NL) and then fold when you ship it in. That being said, you could make an argument for a call, and then check call any turn card. But the problem with that is when the turn bricks, he will probably check back a flush draw, (which is a good 25% of his range) and potentially give him a free chance to out draw you.

    Folding is 100% out of the question.
  • parkNASTYparkNASTY Junior Member
    edited April 2013
    I'd bet 2000-2400 and fold to the raise.
  • rhinocerosrhinoceros Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Fold. He has AA or KK. Just maybe JJ, or TT but probably not. Al those hands with a T (or a 7) that mikie includes are gone preflop. Since you promised no bad beat story, this is gonna prove wrong, but that's my play anyway.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    King are heavily discounted from his range imo. A 65 year old man has lost with kings countless times because "the ace always flops when I have kings". He will just back raise them preflop.

    He could have aces, and based on the creation of this thread, I'm gonna say that's the hand he has here.

    But to fold here would be like passing on a 12 point favorite that is +150 on the moneyline.
  • parkNASTYparkNASTY Junior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old loose man (who so far sounds pretty passive) has 18k and raises to 9k vs. a fairly obvious overpair on the flop. I think his range is TT, 7x (75s-79s), TT, JJ, KK, AA,89ss, 9Jss, and maybe AKss. I don't think KK or AA are too likely either, but sure maybe he can have those. I don't think he ever raises the flop with a ten or a worse pair. I think his most likely hand is 7x. If he's more loose aggressive than I am imagining him to me, add more naked flush draws to the range.
  • mikief87mikief87 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I don't think Reb looks like "an obvious overpair".

    This is atleast his second 3 bet of the session and against the same player. I can easily see some 65 year old man labeling Reb as a bully here, calling the raise with some suited hand or ATo or 99, taking the flop, and then saying to himself. "I have a pair, he has AK, I don't want him to catch, I raise!"
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    So here is what I did and why and the outcome...I either have to assess that he is capable of betting large to throw me off that he has me dominated or he has the flush draw and is hoping to get two cards for the 9500 with the possibility of me laying it down right there. In most cases, if he knew he had me beat and also thought that I could lay down an over pair (which in a lot of cases I have rightfully so) would he risk the raise on the flop unless he feared I could have AsKs. Having played for 3 full 40 minute rounds with him he was absolutely capable of having A10, JJ, 89 suited, and as parkNASTY stated 75-79 suited. I had committed 5k and (I am not calling here...I'm either folding or shoving) it would cost me 15k or 60% of my remaining stack. Having 10k after the hand did not bother me as I am a very confident short stack player (as an FYI I already had my mind made up not to re enter btw) so I shoved as the chances in my mind was that it was just as easy with this player that I equally risked laying down the best hand as it was that he had me dominated. We turned over, he had 8d7d and no Q on turn or river. So I guessed wrong (no bad beat here just an unlucky flop) and could live with the consequences...but that is not why I brought this up. Conversely, having thought about it afterward, I loved HIS play. He risked less than 10% of his stack against a player that he knew he could get away from if he didn't get a positive flop, however, with my stack size he had 100% double up potential so why not...that was easy IMO. The big raise post flop was what I liked the best, in his mind he most likely felt even though I was capable of laying down the over pair I wouldn't based on his previous play and image. I don't believe I'm giving him too much credit here, I underestimated his game and thus parkNASTY you made the most accurate assessment and read with the best outcome, a 2000-2400 open with an easier fold and just move on whether your assessment were to wrong or right. That is not playing "not to lose" but rather reading the risk to reward in a very well thought out manner. The outcome had a higher chance of being -EV based on the opponent, I got out thought and out played plain and simple. My hats off to my opponent and parkNASTY for his read on this particular hand and scenario. Thanks to the others that commented as well, hope it helps give pause the next time you're in a similar situation both with the QQ and the more importantly the potential of calling heads up and then not worrying about over betting/scaring off your opponent. I will also say Mikie, good point about getting the extra 500, I agree if you're pretty sure he would call then you should maximize your edge knowing you most likely have him dominated preflop. -R
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