The Harbowl
TheReb
Senior Member
I just put 5 units on SF -3' -115, for all the reasons I liked SF @ 3' vs. ATL, I like it that much more for this game. I could wait and see if it moves to 3 but don't want to take the chance of having it go back up, besides I can add to the number if it continues to move against me. I liked Baltimore ML yesterday and SF (see BK's thread on it being a Harbowl where I agreed) I thought it was a great spot for the Ravens and liked the Niners as well. But this is where IMO the RAYvens "luck" runs out. If not for the divine intervention in DEN which without we would not even be talking about this matchup right now and what I consider more of a play against NE yesterday than a play on BAL. Overall, I feel SF is the right side and I'm sure there will be enough posts to debate why further in the thread as obviously there are quite a few that like the other side based on the line movement. I will be amazed if this line doesn't move back the other way by kick off (barring anything from left field in the next two weeks, ie., further developments in the incident involving Crabtree). GL
Comments
Without the blown coverage at the end of the Broncos game they don't win.....that is luck.....or I guess you could call it poor defense.
On the other hand, 3 things in the game yesterday were 100% luck and not the result of anything done by Baltimore:
1) Talib injury. Pass defense was no where close to the same after he went out
2) end of 1st half debacle....no time out call until they could only kick a FG. Should've had at least 2 attempts for a TD there and a 17-7 lead.
3) Drop by Welker on their first possession of the 3rd quarter. With a TD at the end of the first half and a TD on that drive the game would've been 24-7 and probably over.
The Ravens did NOTHING to affect those 3 items that New England handed to them. That is pure luck and a result of the Mayflower truck being full when the Colts left town so they couldn't pack the horseshoe.
Actually, the ball definitely was on the ground and that "catch" was a gift...but nevertheless not withstanding that you forgot about the fumble on the 1 yard line, the missed FG (that is the one chink in the niners armor...Akers), and the game would not have even been as close. Look, we could debate those things all day and I am in the camp that one creates their own luck at times so I'm not really disputing that the Ravens put themselves in a position to win the Den. game but I am more in the camp that they didn't beat Brady or Manning rather that they beat the other teams. Manning for all intents and purposes could not throw more than 40yds for whatever reason and yes the Ravens did exploit that. Champ Bailey was schooled in that game in the one on one coverage. Welker not catching the gimme was not Brady's fault. But I ask you this, was it more the Ravens winning those games or the other teams losing it. I also say that both those QB's (Manning and Brady) are not what they once were, not saying they are mediocre by any means just that they are not what they were at their peaks. I think Flacco is playing the best I've ever seen him play (so I'm also in the camp that the total coming down is also the wrong way) so they have that going for them. It's just that in a lot of other areas I see SF as the right side IMO. So if you don't have an opinion yet maybe these will help: In the same line of thinking referring to Manning and Brady, I think the Ravens D gets exploited in this match-up, and that's the biggest factor in this game to me. Unlike the last game when the Niners went into Bal. and lost to Ravens in a very low scoring game, this is a completely different team with Kap running the O. How many passes was Vernon Davis wide open for where it seemed there was no one close to him. That's what the read option exploits, it causes so much confusion and worry and "spying" that Davis who use to command double coverage is now being utilized to his fullest potential. Discipline is another factor, how many times do you see bad penalties against the Ravens in key situations, I can see that happening in this game as well. Spotting a team 17pts is one thing and the Falcons were the most vulnerable to blowing a decent lead, but spotting them in the conference title game on their home field in a dome is another story. This kid "housed" them as well (YES Machine Gun when a team loses in their own house I use the term HOUSED) sure his numbers aren't eye popping in the passing game but that's more because of the balance of their ground game. Which leads me to the ground game as another reason. As good as Rice is, the Niners have the better ground O right now and the better ground D. Also, with their ground game they can play keep away from Flacco like they did after Ryan was on fire in the 1H of that game. There are other reasons but those are the main ones, along with I like the STONES that the younger brother has compared to his bro.
Newc, this should tell you a lot about how I feel on this one. I rarely if ever (probably could count on one to two hands over quite a few years and sample size) go 5 units on a play (single game), reason is that obviously in one game anything can happen and it's just too random for me personally. However, I just don't see it as tough as hell as you see it. That's just my opinion of course and I am by no means a regular NFL bettor so take if fwiw. Sometimes as you know, you can "out think" yourself and overanalyze, I really don't do my own "numbers" on NFL and to be quite honest when it comes to the Super Bowl not quite sure how much they matter. To me it's more about the match ups among other situational things. This one is not about heart as it is mind and gut...believe me I am a fan of both teams (went to Maryland for my undergrad and spent quite a few years with the wife in the Bal. area) also for various reasons a 49'r fan so in this one either team from a fan standpoint could win and I'd be a happy camper. Both teams have excellent former Terps as well mind you. This is the first time I posted more than 3 units on any one game (futures and season wins totals are a different animal and I am not including those). Not sure how old you are Newc., but this kid (Kap) reminds me of when Brady came in for Bledsoe and Belichick stayed with him. Also a bit when Kurt Warner came into the Rams, it just has that same feel to me and I know you're reserving judgement on him but this kid just has the word winner written all over him to me. Not so much from a stats standpoint but from a character/poise beyond his years standpoint. As much as everyone is making about the team energy feeding of the goodbye Ray story, the team energy and belief in this kid's charisma is just as strong IMO as far as the Niners. Hope that helps explain why I'm so strong on this one.
Yeah, you're right win by two TD's at NE, nothing but pure luck. Brady 67-0 at home when leading at the half, Balt shuts them out in the second half to win the game, nothing but luck. Flacco out-playing Brady simply luck. Give the Pats their FG at the end of the half, it still wouldn't have changed the outcome. Welker dropped a pass, something that happens in every NFL game. You do make a good point about Talib, but injuries are part of the game, and I don't think it would have mattered as Flacco was on target all game. No team that reaches the SB gets there because they are lucky. Sure you need a bounce or two to go your way, but you can say that about every team that gets to the SB. What is it with you and this horseshoe stuff anyway?
I was starting to wonder if I was the only one that noticed he's said that about a dozen times in the last couple of days.
I think Bix is Johnny U's son
Dude! The horseshoe is the luck for the Ravens. Colts left it behind when they went to Indy. It always shows up and has given me lots of cash over the last few weeks! When you have a lucky horseshoe shoved up your ass as far as the Ravens do you can't help but cash tickets on them. Won huge the last two weeks with 2nd half plays (you can check the threads for proof). Also loved the 4th and 29 conversion at San Diego. That really fattened my wallet to. I know that was all "skill" and no luck involved but it all pays the same...LOL