Betting Talk

Hedge question or opionons

buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
edited January 2013 in Sports Betting
I have been riding the ravens the past few weeks. I think they are the Ny giants for this year. Flacco is playing great and I do believe they playing a little harder for ray Lewis.

Yesterday I won 2 dimes with them+ 8 on the game and won 1375 with them on the money line.

Last week before the broncos game, I made a 500 bet for the ravens to win the Superbowl at + 725.

All wagers were placed with a local.

Should I hedge for the Super Bowl or just let it ride.

Any opionons or thoughts would be appreciated!

Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    I think the obvious answer is "no". You didn't overbet your bankroll, and it isn't a life changing amount of money, so hedging would only take away value from the +EV position that you're currently sitting in. If you think that SF on their own is a good play, then go ahead, but you're not really hedging at that point, you're just making what you think is a +EV play on San Fran.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    have you seen Goats response to the infamous Hedge Question? he has answered it numerous times.
  • buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Yeah, I will most likely let it ride. I just wanted to see if there is another angle that I'm not seeing.

    Thx for the replies
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2013
    newcombe wrote: »
    have you seen Goats response to the infamous Hedge Question? he has answered it numerous times.

    Figured I'd paste it anyway...

    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).

    NOTE: This is the mathematically correct answer; psychology is not taken into account. If you're a recreational gambler who wants to hedge to be happier, go for it, just know that the math does not support it unless any of the above conditions are met.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Goats is right on. However, another major consideration enters the dark side. You're banging this local pretty hard. Do you REALLY know if you're gonna be paid in full? or pieced off? or outright stiffed? I'm sure it's not the case here, but you never know. A few posts ago I referenced Ace's Gold/Sports Market. Most of you know the story there. All the middles, hedges turn counterfeit.
  • buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Goats is right on. However, another major consideration enters the dark side. You're banging this local pretty hard. Do you REALLY know if you're gonna be paid in full? or pieced off? or outright stiffed? I'm sure it's not the case here, but you never know. A few posts ago I referenced Ace's Gold/Sports Market. Most of you know the story there. All the middles, hedges turn counterfeit.


    I use 3 different locals and I split this bet with 2 of them, for that specific reason. They had the same pice for that bet, so I thought it would make sense I split it up..
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    BOL Buythehook.....you got the horseshoe and God (just ask Ray Ray) on your side in 2 weeks!
  • buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    bixler wrote: »
    BOL Buythehook.....you got the horseshoe and God (just ask Ray Ray) on your side in 2 weeks!

    Lolll..don't forget the mayflower moving truck... It's still around Baltimore some where..

    Thx bixler
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited January 2013
    Hooks, the way I view it is, if today somebody gave you +725 on the Ravens for the Superbowl , would you take it ?

    Of course you would, so just ride it, plus you got a little money in your pocket and 500 isn't going to change your life.

    I never hedge any of my bets. I just let them ride.

    Good luck buddy !
  • buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    Hooks, the way I view it is, if today somebody gave you +725 on the Ravens for the Superbowl , would you take it ?

    Of course you would, so just ride it, plus you got a little money in your pocket and 500 isn't going to change your life.

    I never hedge any of my bets. I just let them ride.

    Good luck buddy !


    Yeah that's what I'm gonna do...just let it ride.

    I may even make a small bet with the ravens+4.

    Thx for the input

    Good luck!!
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