BEST BET of bowl season + early bowl picks ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
College: 7-4 +2.60 units
NFL: 4-2-1 +1.80 units
... But first a note: I've had a very successful run in bowl season for the past several years. Means little to you, I know. And you may not even believe it. Don't care. Bowl season used to be an obliteration for me. I spent my teens and 20s buried with the book before the Jan. 1 games ever arrived. Fortunately, I learned from my mistakes and got a good grasp on how a typical bowl season flows. For me, cashing a bowl ticket is better than cashing a regular-season ticket, even if it's for less money. I know that's not how "pros" think, but I don't give a fuck what or how "pros" think. I bet for extra income and personal enjoyment. I get my rocks off my own way. I enjoy bowl season as my favorite time of year and I enjoy saying "I cashed a ticket on the Sugar Bowl" almost as much as I enjoy the money. That's just how it is. Anyway, this bowl season sucks. There are opportunities out there, however. But overall, it sucks and the usual things that make a bowl season flow are just not there. You can thank Ohio St. and Penn St. not being bowl eligible for this. It caused a trickle-down effect that ruined just about everything. Nonetheless, we move forward ...
San Diego St. +2 1/2 (Poinsettia Bowl) -- Not the match up we were hoping for with San Diego St. We wanted both the Aztecs, and similar story San Jose St., to be playing unmotivated and unsuspecting PAC-12 teams. Instead, we get SDSU going against one of the most emotionally mature teams out there in BYU. And whatever home-field edge there may have been is blunted by the fact that BYU fans travel well because they have nothing better to do in life. Still, though, we feel there is reasonable room to find a bet getting the Aztecs taking a full 3 points in a game that if somehow BYU wins will be close. San Diego St. brings by far the better resume to this setting. Not only that, the Aztecs are a more complete football team, meaning they have both a solid offense AND defense. There are common opponents on the docket to work with. BYU went to Boise and managed just 6 points in a 7-6 loss. San Diego St. left Boise with a 21-19 win. Big deal, you say? Well when you consider that BYU had a +5 turnover edge vs. Boise and San Diego St.'s turnover edge was even, then you start to see why that game matters and why it shows an ongoing problem for the Cougars the entire season -- they couldn't move the ball consistently on good defenses. A good defense is what San Diego St. will bring to this setting and the Aztecs are the more trustworthy side on offense. Getting 3 (you should still be able to even with some extra juice) with the better team is a must take. We don't think this will be a blowout either way, but San Diego St. should be favored and not dogged. A solid play.
Washington +5 (Las Vegas Bowl) -- We love that the Boise St. name still carries weight both at the windows and in terms of getting the opponent excited. But the facts are that the Broncos were nothing much this season. In every step-up game or important game, they were a bit of disappointment and it has everything to do with offense. The QB play was just not there this season. And when that wasn't good enough, there was no running game to salvage things. In fact, this is an extremely weak team across ALL the skill spots ... and that only makes sense when you see former players like Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, Austin Pettis, Titus Young on NFL rosters. The defense was still good enough to keep the team in games, although when we look at exactly the caliber of offensive team that the Broncos faced this team, we're not impressed with much other than San Diego St., which ended up beating Boise. The Broncos held down Michigan St., BYU, Fresno St., and to a degree Nevada, but none of those teams were what we'd consider better-than-average offensively this season. So, what we may have here is a Boise team that comes in believing it's a defensive team partly because of results and partly because the offense sucks. But not even that may be true once they face a team with real offensive skill talent. They'll get that here against Washington, which sports a solid QB in Price, an excellent RB in Bishop Sankey and several talented WRs who don't always live up to their physical tools with their play on the field, but you just have to close your eyes and hope they do tonight. Washington made great strides this season defensively. Yes, the Huskies had games in which they were filleted, but overall this was a better defense than last year's hopeless unit. When comparing resumes, Washington had by far the better wins (Stanford, Oregon St.) and the better overall SOS (seven bowls teams to Boise's six, but Washington faced two BCS bowls teams and LSU). Both teams figure to have plenty of motivation, so we don't expect either team to be flat. But we do expect the Huskies to be better and capable of more things. Boise's offense won't be a tough task for the UW defense. Washington's offense has arguably the best overall skill talent that Boise faced this season. Wrong team is favored here and getting this many points in a game that the Huskies should control is very, very generous. Lite snack on the money line suggested.
UCLA PK (Holiday Bowl) -- We'll put it to you like this, it took one of the greatest offenses we may ever see playing indoors and on carpet to get Baylor home against Washington in last year's Alamo Bowl. The record will show the Bears covered the game, but we all know it was somewhat lucky and that they trailed by 18 points in the second half. Why does any of that matter? Well, we think it shows just how bad Baylor is on defense ... that the Bears needed an all-time performance from an all-time offense on a preferred surface/dome in their home state to get a bowl win that was very hard fought and in doubt until way late. Fast forward to this season. The Bears are still very good on offense, but not as good. The Bears are just as bad on defense. And now they have a bowl game outdoors, on grass, in the opponent's home state and against a team that can do one thing ESPECIALLY WELL on offense -- RUSH THE PASSER. UCLA is absolutely one of the best bets of bowl season. When we review resumes, we see a UCLA team that has been on the field with some excellent offenses capable of doing many things with many great players. Baylor is nothing special compared to what UCLA in USC's QB/WRs, Stanford's RB/OL, Arizona's QB/SCHEME. We won't even mention Nebraska, Oregon St. and Arizona St. The Bruins bring the far better resume, far better defense, far better running game to this game. Baylor brings one thing, an outstanding offense. But that kind of offense with these types of skill players are really nothing that UCLA hasn't already seen this season. There will be no culture shock. Meanwhile, UCLA's own offense figures to have a field day with Baylor's defense. QB Hundley isn't ever mentioned in the same convo as other frosh QBs like Golson, Manziel and Mariota, but he's not far off. The Bruins have one of the nation's top RBs in Franklin. There is a slight concern about motivation, but we think that Jim Mora isn't the kind of coach to let his team be flat for a bowl game. As game day draws near, the idea of having the entire national stage to themselves in a night game on ESPN will become quite appealing for the UCLA players. This is our biggest bet of bowl season.
NFL: 4-2-1 +1.80 units
... But first a note: I've had a very successful run in bowl season for the past several years. Means little to you, I know. And you may not even believe it. Don't care. Bowl season used to be an obliteration for me. I spent my teens and 20s buried with the book before the Jan. 1 games ever arrived. Fortunately, I learned from my mistakes and got a good grasp on how a typical bowl season flows. For me, cashing a bowl ticket is better than cashing a regular-season ticket, even if it's for less money. I know that's not how "pros" think, but I don't give a fuck what or how "pros" think. I bet for extra income and personal enjoyment. I get my rocks off my own way. I enjoy bowl season as my favorite time of year and I enjoy saying "I cashed a ticket on the Sugar Bowl" almost as much as I enjoy the money. That's just how it is. Anyway, this bowl season sucks. There are opportunities out there, however. But overall, it sucks and the usual things that make a bowl season flow are just not there. You can thank Ohio St. and Penn St. not being bowl eligible for this. It caused a trickle-down effect that ruined just about everything. Nonetheless, we move forward ...
San Diego St. +2 1/2 (Poinsettia Bowl) -- Not the match up we were hoping for with San Diego St. We wanted both the Aztecs, and similar story San Jose St., to be playing unmotivated and unsuspecting PAC-12 teams. Instead, we get SDSU going against one of the most emotionally mature teams out there in BYU. And whatever home-field edge there may have been is blunted by the fact that BYU fans travel well because they have nothing better to do in life. Still, though, we feel there is reasonable room to find a bet getting the Aztecs taking a full 3 points in a game that if somehow BYU wins will be close. San Diego St. brings by far the better resume to this setting. Not only that, the Aztecs are a more complete football team, meaning they have both a solid offense AND defense. There are common opponents on the docket to work with. BYU went to Boise and managed just 6 points in a 7-6 loss. San Diego St. left Boise with a 21-19 win. Big deal, you say? Well when you consider that BYU had a +5 turnover edge vs. Boise and San Diego St.'s turnover edge was even, then you start to see why that game matters and why it shows an ongoing problem for the Cougars the entire season -- they couldn't move the ball consistently on good defenses. A good defense is what San Diego St. will bring to this setting and the Aztecs are the more trustworthy side on offense. Getting 3 (you should still be able to even with some extra juice) with the better team is a must take. We don't think this will be a blowout either way, but San Diego St. should be favored and not dogged. A solid play.
Washington +5 (Las Vegas Bowl) -- We love that the Boise St. name still carries weight both at the windows and in terms of getting the opponent excited. But the facts are that the Broncos were nothing much this season. In every step-up game or important game, they were a bit of disappointment and it has everything to do with offense. The QB play was just not there this season. And when that wasn't good enough, there was no running game to salvage things. In fact, this is an extremely weak team across ALL the skill spots ... and that only makes sense when you see former players like Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, Austin Pettis, Titus Young on NFL rosters. The defense was still good enough to keep the team in games, although when we look at exactly the caliber of offensive team that the Broncos faced this team, we're not impressed with much other than San Diego St., which ended up beating Boise. The Broncos held down Michigan St., BYU, Fresno St., and to a degree Nevada, but none of those teams were what we'd consider better-than-average offensively this season. So, what we may have here is a Boise team that comes in believing it's a defensive team partly because of results and partly because the offense sucks. But not even that may be true once they face a team with real offensive skill talent. They'll get that here against Washington, which sports a solid QB in Price, an excellent RB in Bishop Sankey and several talented WRs who don't always live up to their physical tools with their play on the field, but you just have to close your eyes and hope they do tonight. Washington made great strides this season defensively. Yes, the Huskies had games in which they were filleted, but overall this was a better defense than last year's hopeless unit. When comparing resumes, Washington had by far the better wins (Stanford, Oregon St.) and the better overall SOS (seven bowls teams to Boise's six, but Washington faced two BCS bowls teams and LSU). Both teams figure to have plenty of motivation, so we don't expect either team to be flat. But we do expect the Huskies to be better and capable of more things. Boise's offense won't be a tough task for the UW defense. Washington's offense has arguably the best overall skill talent that Boise faced this season. Wrong team is favored here and getting this many points in a game that the Huskies should control is very, very generous. Lite snack on the money line suggested.
UCLA PK (Holiday Bowl) -- We'll put it to you like this, it took one of the greatest offenses we may ever see playing indoors and on carpet to get Baylor home against Washington in last year's Alamo Bowl. The record will show the Bears covered the game, but we all know it was somewhat lucky and that they trailed by 18 points in the second half. Why does any of that matter? Well, we think it shows just how bad Baylor is on defense ... that the Bears needed an all-time performance from an all-time offense on a preferred surface/dome in their home state to get a bowl win that was very hard fought and in doubt until way late. Fast forward to this season. The Bears are still very good on offense, but not as good. The Bears are just as bad on defense. And now they have a bowl game outdoors, on grass, in the opponent's home state and against a team that can do one thing ESPECIALLY WELL on offense -- RUSH THE PASSER. UCLA is absolutely one of the best bets of bowl season. When we review resumes, we see a UCLA team that has been on the field with some excellent offenses capable of doing many things with many great players. Baylor is nothing special compared to what UCLA in USC's QB/WRs, Stanford's RB/OL, Arizona's QB/SCHEME. We won't even mention Nebraska, Oregon St. and Arizona St. The Bruins bring the far better resume, far better defense, far better running game to this game. Baylor brings one thing, an outstanding offense. But that kind of offense with these types of skill players are really nothing that UCLA hasn't already seen this season. There will be no culture shock. Meanwhile, UCLA's own offense figures to have a field day with Baylor's defense. QB Hundley isn't ever mentioned in the same convo as other frosh QBs like Golson, Manziel and Mariota, but he's not far off. The Bruins have one of the nation's top RBs in Franklin. There is a slight concern about motivation, but we think that Jim Mora isn't the kind of coach to let his team be flat for a bowl game. As game day draws near, the idea of having the entire national stage to themselves in a night game on ESPN will become quite appealing for the UCLA players. This is our biggest bet of bowl season.
Comments
i can make absolutely no argument in defense of the defenseless baylor bears though.
GL
I didn't miss a thing. Edward requires that I use 5dimes or pinny lines for these write ups. My main spot had +3 -120 still as of yesterday and of course I bet early anyway. I would recommend anyone playing SDSU pay the extra juice and buy to 3. I believe I mentioned as such in the write up.
Actually, you should be using Bookmaker or Pinny.
My understanding is that it isn't the books themselves as much as the influence that they carry in the industry (ie the volume of places that mirror their lines).