This week's CFB and NFL picks+write ups ...
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
CFB -- 0-0
NFL -- 0-1
(I may have one or two more plays ... but let's get these outta the way for now ... busy week) ...
Stanford -2 -- Who do you trust more to not be hung over? I'd say it's pretty obvious. This is one of few times that Stanford's pro-style demeanor can pay off. They are one of the more business-like teams we've seen in years. Conversely, there's simply no trusting UCLA in this spot. The magnitude of the win over USC cannot be oversold enough. Now the Bruins have had all week to be at home and hear about themselves as the new kings of L.A. Success is very new to these players. Not so with Stanford. OK fine, that takes care of the mental focus. But the on-the-field match-ups are also bad news for UCLA. Stanford just saw this type of offense last week, only with better players. The Cardinal have a very legit defense that can and will crowd the line of scrimmage and although the Bruins had a nice day passing last week, there are simply no burners on the outside to make opponents sweat. Stanford's defense has been for real for just about the entire season. The Cardinal offense is now starting to catch up. QB Hogan is getting better and better and we expect him to get better with each passing snap. It would take a full focus by UCLA to win this game and we just don't see that as being there. You get the better defense, the better running game and the smarter players at one of the weakest venues for a home team in the country. Much of what happened last week between UCLA-USC was a result of how bad USC is and it being fully exposed. Much of what happened last week between Stanford-Oregon was legitimately because of Stanford.
Notre Dame -6 1/2 -- USC has been the gift that keeps giving this season. They remind us of the Chargers or Saints in the sense that once people get something stuck in their mind, they don't let go. USC was never a premier team this year. QB Barkley is a statue with limited mobility who happened to be blessed with excellent WRs. The offensive line has been horrible. The defense is below average with a defensive coordinator who the game has clearly has passed by. Now you get rid of the team's ability to get the ball to its best players with Barkley being out and what are you left with? Seriously? Can't rely on the ground game with Silas Redd tapping out last week numerous times and McNeal too small to be trusted for 20+ carries. The offensive stinks to begin with and now is tasked with protecting an even bigger statue in QB Wittek (245 lbs (we'll take the over)) wearing a knee brace. How can this unit be expected to do ANYTHING against the best defense they've seen all season and arguably the best defense in the country? ND won't do anything too elaborate on offense, which should actually help Grandpa Monte out a bit. But the Irish are probably not going to provide the turnovers that USC would need to keep this game competitive. At the end of the season with things degenerating quickly, a defense can often quit when pitted against a physical opponent. Notre Dame needs this game in a big, bad way as it's essentially a national title game qualifier. There's not much USC can do to get in the way.
Wyoming +7 -- Was hoping weather would be more of a factor on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. But it looks like San Diego St. will have only the altitude to deal with. Nonetheless, the underdog has plenty going for it. It is our belief that SDSU cannot stop the pass when it actually faces a legit passer. We've seen that at times this season, but not often because there just aren't many legit passing teams on SDSU's slate this season. Cowboys QB Brett Smith isn't going to be confused with Joe Montana, but he's good enough for us to back getting a full TD at home in a game that just sets up terribly for the visitor. There will be no bowl for Wyoming this season, so upsetting a conference leader will have to do. The Cowboys have avoided turnovers quite well over their last three games. So you give us a solid passing game, a solid home field, a potentially flat visitor and a full TD cushion in a very dangerous spot, and we'll take a Wyoming team that won last year's game in San Diego outright.
NY Giants -2 1/2 -- The Packers' JV team somehow won on the road last week, but asking them to do so again against an even better opponent is a very tall task. Even when healthy, the reason why GB has trouble with the Giants is because the Giants can rush the passer, if nothing else. Pressure Rodgers and there's no run game to bail him out. Meanwhile, the GB is a shell of what it could be with even more key cogs dropping like flies. The Lions could not exploit it last week. Just think about where that game would have gone if QB Stafford's pass isn't a step behind TE Scheffler, who tips it up in the air for a GB DB to pick off and take back to the house. Pure reindeer shit. Having had their bye week, the Giants can start anew after entering the break with more questions than answers. The Packer name will have their full attention, but the Packer reality will be very easy to overcome.
Falcons -1 AND Falcons/Bucs OVER 48 1/2 -- The Falcons cannot run the ball. They have one way to go on offense and that's fast thru the air. This is bad news for a Bucs team that cannot stop the pass because it's DBs are a mash unit and that's after their best player was dealt to the Pats and second-best cover guy was suspended for hitting the RX too hard. Then last week, their remaining best cover guy -- Eric Wright -- re-aggravated his achilles injury and likely won't play. Not what you want if you're facing Matt Ryan fresh off a six-INT showing. The Falcons, however, have little chance of putting a dent in Tampa's offense. Doogie Martin will get his and QB Freeman has become quite efficient. This game should be played at a rapid pace with both teams doing on offense what the opposing defense has the most trouble stopping. This one flies over ... and we think the Falcs get the 'W', too, because our impression of the Bucs have been that they've been very fortunate during this streak they're on. A combo of playing bad or overrated teams who were all-too-willing to hand them the game with key mistakes has been the catalyst of their run more than anything. Last week's rally against a horrible Panthers team may have been the final hurrah in this tired act.
NFL -- 0-1
(I may have one or two more plays ... but let's get these outta the way for now ... busy week) ...
Stanford -2 -- Who do you trust more to not be hung over? I'd say it's pretty obvious. This is one of few times that Stanford's pro-style demeanor can pay off. They are one of the more business-like teams we've seen in years. Conversely, there's simply no trusting UCLA in this spot. The magnitude of the win over USC cannot be oversold enough. Now the Bruins have had all week to be at home and hear about themselves as the new kings of L.A. Success is very new to these players. Not so with Stanford. OK fine, that takes care of the mental focus. But the on-the-field match-ups are also bad news for UCLA. Stanford just saw this type of offense last week, only with better players. The Cardinal have a very legit defense that can and will crowd the line of scrimmage and although the Bruins had a nice day passing last week, there are simply no burners on the outside to make opponents sweat. Stanford's defense has been for real for just about the entire season. The Cardinal offense is now starting to catch up. QB Hogan is getting better and better and we expect him to get better with each passing snap. It would take a full focus by UCLA to win this game and we just don't see that as being there. You get the better defense, the better running game and the smarter players at one of the weakest venues for a home team in the country. Much of what happened last week between UCLA-USC was a result of how bad USC is and it being fully exposed. Much of what happened last week between Stanford-Oregon was legitimately because of Stanford.
Notre Dame -6 1/2 -- USC has been the gift that keeps giving this season. They remind us of the Chargers or Saints in the sense that once people get something stuck in their mind, they don't let go. USC was never a premier team this year. QB Barkley is a statue with limited mobility who happened to be blessed with excellent WRs. The offensive line has been horrible. The defense is below average with a defensive coordinator who the game has clearly has passed by. Now you get rid of the team's ability to get the ball to its best players with Barkley being out and what are you left with? Seriously? Can't rely on the ground game with Silas Redd tapping out last week numerous times and McNeal too small to be trusted for 20+ carries. The offensive stinks to begin with and now is tasked with protecting an even bigger statue in QB Wittek (245 lbs (we'll take the over)) wearing a knee brace. How can this unit be expected to do ANYTHING against the best defense they've seen all season and arguably the best defense in the country? ND won't do anything too elaborate on offense, which should actually help Grandpa Monte out a bit. But the Irish are probably not going to provide the turnovers that USC would need to keep this game competitive. At the end of the season with things degenerating quickly, a defense can often quit when pitted against a physical opponent. Notre Dame needs this game in a big, bad way as it's essentially a national title game qualifier. There's not much USC can do to get in the way.
Wyoming +7 -- Was hoping weather would be more of a factor on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. But it looks like San Diego St. will have only the altitude to deal with. Nonetheless, the underdog has plenty going for it. It is our belief that SDSU cannot stop the pass when it actually faces a legit passer. We've seen that at times this season, but not often because there just aren't many legit passing teams on SDSU's slate this season. Cowboys QB Brett Smith isn't going to be confused with Joe Montana, but he's good enough for us to back getting a full TD at home in a game that just sets up terribly for the visitor. There will be no bowl for Wyoming this season, so upsetting a conference leader will have to do. The Cowboys have avoided turnovers quite well over their last three games. So you give us a solid passing game, a solid home field, a potentially flat visitor and a full TD cushion in a very dangerous spot, and we'll take a Wyoming team that won last year's game in San Diego outright.
NY Giants -2 1/2 -- The Packers' JV team somehow won on the road last week, but asking them to do so again against an even better opponent is a very tall task. Even when healthy, the reason why GB has trouble with the Giants is because the Giants can rush the passer, if nothing else. Pressure Rodgers and there's no run game to bail him out. Meanwhile, the GB is a shell of what it could be with even more key cogs dropping like flies. The Lions could not exploit it last week. Just think about where that game would have gone if QB Stafford's pass isn't a step behind TE Scheffler, who tips it up in the air for a GB DB to pick off and take back to the house. Pure reindeer shit. Having had their bye week, the Giants can start anew after entering the break with more questions than answers. The Packer name will have their full attention, but the Packer reality will be very easy to overcome.
Falcons -1 AND Falcons/Bucs OVER 48 1/2 -- The Falcons cannot run the ball. They have one way to go on offense and that's fast thru the air. This is bad news for a Bucs team that cannot stop the pass because it's DBs are a mash unit and that's after their best player was dealt to the Pats and second-best cover guy was suspended for hitting the RX too hard. Then last week, their remaining best cover guy -- Eric Wright -- re-aggravated his achilles injury and likely won't play. Not what you want if you're facing Matt Ryan fresh off a six-INT showing. The Falcons, however, have little chance of putting a dent in Tampa's offense. Doogie Martin will get his and QB Freeman has become quite efficient. This game should be played at a rapid pace with both teams doing on offense what the opposing defense has the most trouble stopping. This one flies over ... and we think the Falcs get the 'W', too, because our impression of the Bucs have been that they've been very fortunate during this streak they're on. A combo of playing bad or overrated teams who were all-too-willing to hand them the game with key mistakes has been the catalyst of their run more than anything. Last week's rally against a horrible Panthers team may have been the final hurrah in this tired act.
Comments
Washington -13 -- This line appears cheap considering the old, overused term "two teams heading in opposite directions" applies in a big bad way here. Mike Leach is on his way out at Wazzu. There's no doubt about it. The very best playmaker the team had in WR Wilson kicked rocks along with several others. Wazzu may give a max effort here, but the attrition is so bad that it won't matter. Meanwhile, the Huskies' defensive improvements have been noted, as has a running game that's really come on strong. Outgoing coach and outgoing players under these circumstances don't usually bring out the best a team has to offer.
Georgia -13 -- Much is being made about how Georgia saw the option last week and will be prepared for it. That's great and all, but even better is that we see about six NFL players on the Bulldogs defense and absolutely ZERO NFL players on the Ga. Tech offense. This becomes a matter of getting Ga. Tech in a hole and then watching the hysterics as they try to rally out of it. Georgia is legitimately a top-5 team in our estimation and a team we'll be looking to back come bowl season. We are breaking the Law of Richt here and laying points with a coach who is best bet when he's getting them. Nonetheless, the weakest Ga. Tech team in years gets fully exposed by a team posturing for big things down the road. Remember, it's parlay time for Georgia -- win big here, win big in the SEC title game, then hope for a BCS title game berth. You and I know it won't happen, but don't tell them that.
Browns +1 -- We saw the best shot the Steelers could muster in their dilapidated state on Sunday night. Now things get even worse QB Leftwich out and QB Batch in. Not to mention there are WR issues to the point that Plax has been brought in. There's no doubt the Steelers have been resourceful and will rely on their ground game and defense to put them in position to win, but this is the NFL and you can't have such obvious glaring weaknesses and hope to survive ... especially on the road. The problem for the Steelers is that even at near full strength, with Big Ben under center, they weren't that good. Savvy, yes. But good, no. The offensive line is quite shaky. The defense is older than ever. This was going to be a good game regardless. The Browns have been on the improve, slowly but surely. There's still one thing the Clev defense cannot stop and that's the pass. But are we really sweating that here with Batch under center for PIT and Haden back in the secondary for the Browns? The Steelers simply aren't going anywhere on offense against a very good young defense. The Browns offense has a legitimate weapon it can ride in RB Richardson. If QB Weeden avoids mistakes, something he's gotten better at, then Cleveland can turn this into an absolute ambush. The home-field edge given the visitor will be a factor. This one should be much easier than this line expects for the home team.
Thanks for the thoughts and write-ups. Good luck.
good luck, looking forward to your selections
Caveat: I've been wrong plenty times before.
luck
Florida +8 -- Let's review the resumes of these two teams and see if there's anything left to be said.
Florida: Wins over A&M, LSU, South Carolina. A giveaway-filled loss to Georgia.
Florida St.: Wins over Clemson (allowed 37 points) and Miami (allowed 20 points). Lost at Va. Tech.
So how, exactly, are the Noles eight-point favorites over Florida? Well, it goes back to an idea spawned in August when Phil Steele, clearly creaming over the FSU schedule, called them the No. 1 team in the country. Fact is, the Noles couldn't even take advantage of that weak schedule to be unbeaten and on the verge of flopping into the national title game. The reality is that FSU is not even a top-10 team. Heck, one computer the BCS uses doesn't even have them in the Top 25! Just think about it, the entire season everyone has been waiting for this breakout performance from FSU that has not come. And the media and other people are doing it again THIS WEEK! That's bad news when you're playing BY FAR the best defense you've played all season. But forget all that for a second, the things we'd like to see happen that would tell us the Noles are an improving team at the right team of year are simply not there. How could they be? Instead of the roster getting better, it got worse by having season-ending injuries to the best offensive weapon in RB Chris Thompson and top defensive player in DE Brandon Jenkins. So again, how or why, exactly is FSU in this price range? This is still a one-loss SEC opponent with the best defense that FSU will have faced all year. Perhaps people are putting too much stock in the Gators' last two games, which were lackluster wins over La. Lafayette and Jacksonsville St. But you have to remember that QB Driskel was out and this type of thing happened before when the Gators scooted by Bowling Green but followed that ho-hum effort with a win at Texas A&M the following week, in which they held Johnny Football down in the second half and allowed just 17 points! How good does that win look now? You gonna tell us EJ Manuel is better than Johnny Football? Yes, the situation somewhat favors FSU in that they're at home, they haven't had a breakout performance (yet) and they catch the Gators with a gimpy QB. But even when Florida has played poorly and tried to give games away, i.e. SIX turnovers vs. Georgia, the defense was so good that they were right there at the end of the game with a chance to win it (see Georgia game). Florida St.'s best weapon is team speed ... but that's something that seems to be lost on classy SEC teams and it hasn't gone far enough against substantially slower teams anyway this season. ***Our one cause for pause is that these FSU-FLA games in recent years have had arguably the strangest flows of any games we'll chart in a given season. They often lack flow and one or two mistakes that are taken back to the house can easily get one of these teams out of their rhythm and produce an odd score where a team's scoreboard count may not reflect its stat sheet. Just an oddity that always seems to happen when these two meet. Let's hope that either it's the Gators on the good end of the wildness or that this one is allowed to settle into a somewhat normal game flow. We would also recommend taking a lite snack on the Gators on the money line.
Is blindly betting USC as a home dog "the right thing to do"? Probably. But the "right thing to do" has blown up very often in recent years and it represents a changing dynamic in successful betting. Doesn't mean that USC won't cover. They very well could. But the reasons I outlined above are the realities of the matchup heading into the game. And under those circumstances, I have no hesitation laying the ND wood.
Also, as best I can tell, the money on the game is evenly split. So I think there was a slight tick down in the line because the books maybe expected to be inundated with ND money and when that didn't that happen they dropped it a tick.
Also, QB Wittek has gotten rave reviews in practice this week, but I put little stock into it because USC people tend to live in fantasy land.
It's a great game to bet because of the emotion involved. The gambler in me loves it. Got a chance to be really right or humiliated. Can't beat that!
It has to be. Someone said so on twitter.
http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/2012-11-23/notre-dame-usc-point-spread-line-georgia-ga-tech-florida-florida-state
San Jose St. -4 -- Late-changing perceptions in teams make this a bet despite the fact that this line would be laughed at back in Sept. when La. Tech was a pointspread darling and SJ St. was still an unknown. But this setting just doesn't work very well for La. Tech. The Bulldogs come cross country to play against an opponent that has the ability to slow their offense to a crawl. The strength of a very good SJ State "D" is against the pass. They can pressure and cover. Meanwhile. SJ State's own offense under QB Fales is nothing to sneeze at. The home field has become something of a strength and you can expect another capacity crowd, similar to what was there for the BYU win last week. La. Tech is a precision team that needs tempo and isn't going to push anyone around. With their bubble burst last week, they aren't likely to get that here.
Michigan +4 -- (Please wait this line out as close to kickoff as possible (unless it ticks back down to 3 1/2) , but in order to save time, I will post now). We've been a big fan all season of Ohio St. in BigTen match ups where its speed will drive the other team crazy. The Buckeyes are by far the fastest team in the conference on defense and have an athletic QB, which goes a long way against plodding BigTen defenses ... EXCEPT WHEN YOU PLAY MICHIGAN. The Wolverines are not as fast as Ohio St. but they aren't too far behind. They also have experience with mobile QBs because they have one on their very own roster. Michigan has plenty of skill players to test this Ohio St. defense in a manner that it hasn't had to face yet in the BigTen. We like the fact that our vibe is that we're bucking plenty of public money who see the Buckeyes at home with a cheap line and want in. This one figures to be a nailbiter that 'dog will be in all the way to the gun. (Worth a lite snack on the ML, too).