Good to be back!
ChemicalAT
Senior Member
Some of you may recognize me as a BettingTalk regular from many years back, i.e. back before Golden Eddie was a celebrity. After many years of introspection, I am back to contribute my analysis/picks as it pertains to just three things -- college football, NFL and March Madness. Nothing more. Nothing less. I've honed my skill and narrowed things down to my three greatest areas of strength. I cannot pick an MLB winner for the life of me. Same with NBA. Regular season coll hoops I'm OK at, but I really only get involved when I'm feeling like a Jones. And beside, Golden Eddie and RAS have that market cornered.
Anyway, please do not ride me blind. Just use what I say as another weapon in your arsenal to hopefully arrive at a winning bet. Let's get started ...
CFB: 0-0
NFL: 0-0
Bears +3 1/2 -- Won't lie to you, I got lucky because one my offshores had a line up on this at +6 1/2 last night and I got half my bet down. I truly thought Smith would play and was hoping he would because taking a TD (with added juice) was shaping up to be my best of the NFL season. It was a stroke of luck that I bet it before the Smith announcement. Now, it's not as nice. I really wanted the dynamic of the Niners having their guy and the Bears not having theirs. That woulda meant taking 6 1/2 or 7. Campbell vs. Smith is just as fine with me as Campbell vs. Kap, especially if I'm getting three more points. I guess you have to establish how much a starting QB means to his particular team. Last night, we saw Leftwich prove to be a major step back when compared to Big Ben. I don't think we'll see that here. Cutler, a considerable amount of the time, hurts his team. His wild play and INTs simply don't fit into the brand of football the Bears want to play, which is not making mistakes while forcing the opponent to make several. Jason Campbell is far from helpless. In fact, a toned-down game plan of running the ball and taking what the defense gives in the passing game may actually make Chicago a better team. Plus, Campbell isn't a statue and has enough moves to create, if need be. The point of this bet is getting the Bears defense vs. the Niners offense. Even with Smith, I like this matchup. I see a very conservative "wait the other guy out" approach by both coaches tonight, which makes any points offered very generous. I thought the Niners looked awful last week vs. a Rams team that really wasn't heading in the right direction (and that got proven yesterday). Meanwhile, the Bears are off a humbling loss to Houston. If Campbell isn't out there putting the team in bad spots like Cutler has been known to do, and the defense is able to pressure a shaky Smith into some mistakes and/or simply not give up the big play, then the Bears look like a great candidate to not only cover, but likely get the W as well.
Anyway, please do not ride me blind. Just use what I say as another weapon in your arsenal to hopefully arrive at a winning bet. Let's get started ...
CFB: 0-0
NFL: 0-0
Bears +3 1/2 -- Won't lie to you, I got lucky because one my offshores had a line up on this at +6 1/2 last night and I got half my bet down. I truly thought Smith would play and was hoping he would because taking a TD (with added juice) was shaping up to be my best of the NFL season. It was a stroke of luck that I bet it before the Smith announcement. Now, it's not as nice. I really wanted the dynamic of the Niners having their guy and the Bears not having theirs. That woulda meant taking 6 1/2 or 7. Campbell vs. Smith is just as fine with me as Campbell vs. Kap, especially if I'm getting three more points. I guess you have to establish how much a starting QB means to his particular team. Last night, we saw Leftwich prove to be a major step back when compared to Big Ben. I don't think we'll see that here. Cutler, a considerable amount of the time, hurts his team. His wild play and INTs simply don't fit into the brand of football the Bears want to play, which is not making mistakes while forcing the opponent to make several. Jason Campbell is far from helpless. In fact, a toned-down game plan of running the ball and taking what the defense gives in the passing game may actually make Chicago a better team. Plus, Campbell isn't a statue and has enough moves to create, if need be. The point of this bet is getting the Bears defense vs. the Niners offense. Even with Smith, I like this matchup. I see a very conservative "wait the other guy out" approach by both coaches tonight, which makes any points offered very generous. I thought the Niners looked awful last week vs. a Rams team that really wasn't heading in the right direction (and that got proven yesterday). Meanwhile, the Bears are off a humbling loss to Houston. If Campbell isn't out there putting the team in bad spots like Cutler has been known to do, and the defense is able to pressure a shaky Smith into some mistakes and/or simply not give up the big play, then the Bears look like a great candidate to not only cover, but likely get the W as well.
Comments
Also, fyi, most shops had this up at 6.5 as late as this morning.
GL.
I also thought the point of that site was to have dialogue among the sharpest guys around, but I didn't see too much of that. I posted my only college picks for a while and was 19-12. Just tried to add to the convo. It was just very disappointing all around.
Also, try not to mention records on picks not posted here at BT too much as it's technically against the site rules.
Lastly, Ed is busy running like God these days, so you'll see me or TommyL (my fellow mod) doing most of the moderating.
Just unfollowed him on twitter yesterday. Nothing valuable there. A whiner basically. Totally agree with you. Welcome back!
That's not very confidence-inspiring, lol. How about you stick to the site rules and record keeping guidelines and then I won't have to?
Yeah, that's how I would describe it when Ed brought me on board three years ago. As you'll see, it's come a long, long way since then.
What I'm saying is that I'll get the hang of it very quickly. But until I do, let me know where I'm going wrong. I doubt I even will. I read the stuff.
No worries, most of that was tongue in cheek. Again, welcome back.