Betting Talk

Sixth Sense

burgerburger Senior Member
edited December 2012 in Sports Betting
Anyone with any insight on how his first weekend in NFL went?
I am speculating that it is ok to ask about that service in the forum since they advertise with each other.

TIA
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Comments

  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    i believe 2-3 with 1 pending
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Who cares about his W/L for 1 week

    Let's talk about the fact that he's going with the RAS format of releasing one play at a time with a countdown. For some reason his clients believe that will give them a better chance of getting the best lines available online. Those people have obviously never tried to wager a RAS CBB bet at Pinnacle (i.e. impossible). If you release 3-6 plays at once and do it legitimately you won't have all the numbers move instantly.
  • ggm1976ggm1976 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Bearded taco, not to start anything, but he released 6 plays at same time at 11 pm eastern time on Friday........
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    i believe 2-3 with 1 pending

    Yep that is what I had.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    BeardedTaco wrote: »
    Who cares about his W/L for 1 week

    Let's talk about the fact that he's going with the RAS format of releasing one play at a time with a countdown. For some reason his clients believe that will give them a better chance of getting the best lines available online. Those people have obviously never tried to wager a RAS CBB bet at Pinnacle (i.e. impossible). If you release 3-6 plays at once and do it legitimately you won't have all the numbers move instantly.

    One at a time is better because when you release a bunch at once you have to use the "multiple Team Bet screen" and this is a problem because by the time you get all the boxes filled and press continue 2 or more of the teams have moved already. One at a time is much better.
    I don't play at Pinny so I'm not familiar with their betting screen format. But as far as locals go the sites with the word "Wager" at the end are the best.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    This is mostly a Pinnacle issue. In theory it sounds practical but the amount of bets being concentrated on one game in a matter of seconds will only make it more difficult to get the right line. When multiple bets are involved the window is larger to get some of the plays in at the best price. That discomfort you feel when having to place multiple bets in a short period of time, the guys limit betting at pinnacle have the same one and it prevents them from moving all the lines at once.

    Just disappointing to see whoever built the RAS CBB Pinnacle script will once again be able to reap the benefits and only need 51% to break even while everybody else will be at 52.4%. At least in this case Scott's service will still be usable since the NFL is a large market and chasing steam at -110 on overnight lines will not be viewed as badly (betting RAS on non-pinnacle offshore books = chasing steam in small market during gameday at full limits which leads to accounts being limited)
  • ggm1976ggm1976 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Scott's lines moved like a point or point and a half instantly like 1 or 2 minutes after he released his plays on Friday
  • increasedoddincreasedodd Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    You need more 105 outs. Anyways, I'm glad for a release page. Also, ALOT more money is needed to move an NFL line on Friday night than a CBB line. A CBB line moves on $500-$1000. Pinny is likely taking $25-50,000 on NFL by Friday to move a line 4 cents.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    So I need to spend time and energy finding a less reliable and less secure 105 out with smaller limits? All because of the same "mr.RAS Countdown Script" that is already preventing me the chance of placing the occasional +EV RAS CFB/CBB bet at Pinny?

    Don't get me wrong the change is happening and I have no say in it but I could not help but to get it off my chest. I'm sure "mr.Script" and his group are laughing their asses of reading this thread as they are preparing their 14k-28k-42k USD Pinny bullets.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Are you saying Pinny has an account here?
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    BeardedTaco wrote: »
    So I need to spend time and energy finding a less reliable and less secure 105 out with smaller limits? All because of the same "mr.RAS Countdown Script" that is already preventing me the chance of placing the occasional +EV RAS CFB/CBB bet at Pinny?

    Don't get me wrong the change is happening and I have no say in it but I could not help but to get it off my chest. I'm sure "mr.Script" and his group are laughing their asses of reading this thread as they are preparing their 14k-28k-42k USD Pinny bullets.

    Do you really think that if RAS or SS changed their release method that Pinny wouldnt adjust? Pinny is obv smarter then everyone else and no matter how they release plays, if they make them public you wont be able to play RAS or SS at Pinny.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Taco... spend some money and get a co-location server and ride the pinny backbone network and get a programmer to write you a betting script and youl be all set.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    You guys are talking about theory #2 which implies Pinny traders are paying attention to the quality services in their markets and making sure they don't get hit for a big chunk. Pinny is smart no doubt about that but are they that concerned about the services? One or two limit bets and the value is mostly gone.

    Theory #1 is a person/group that built a software that accelerates the betting from the RAS Countdown page to the Pinny software.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    BeardedTaco wrote: »
    You guys are talking about theory #2 which implies Pinny traders are paying attention to the quality services in their markets and making sure they don't get hit for a big chunk. Pinny is smart no doubt about that but are they that concerned about the services? One or two limit bets and the value is mostly gone.

    Theory #1 is a person/group that built a software that accelerates the betting from the RAS Countdown page to the Pinny software.

    I would think more than 1 person would have created or paid to have someone else create this. Im not a programmer but it doesnt seem like that hard of a script to write.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2012
    Might be easy to write but still needs to be blazing to beat the other guys your competing with's methods.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited September 2012
    I have a subscriber who claims a 75% success rate at Pinny without any automation, but Pinny is never going to accommodate more than a few limit bets anyway, regardless of how plays are released.

    Anyone making an effort with access to a reasonable number of books is not going to have a problem getting Kellen's release lines or better. The NFL market on Friday is a completely different animal than the college markets RAS releases into.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Forget his release methods....3% is an uncomfortable amount for me to bet on a play, yikes I just can't do it
  • Sixth SenseSixth Sense Member
    edited September 2012
    Then bet less. That is entirely up to you. You should play whatever you are comfortable playing.

    As for the release method, there is always going to be someone who disagrees with the ways the plays are released. I am open to trying anything that will work. If we find out this isn't working, we can try releasing more than one game at a time.
  • thecaptain12thecaptain12 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Was emailing back and forth with a client the other day. She told me the other service she has said to bet 10% per play as there were never more than 5 plays. She never told me if she did or not. I told her to keep each a 2 to 2.5%. I think 3% isn't bad though.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited September 2012
    It really depends on what your definition of bankroll is, and what your expected edge is on whatever you are betting.

    If your bankroll is your net worth, then you probably don't want to exceed 1%, but if your bankroll is replenishable it is acceptable to go higher.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2012
    RightAngle wrote: »
    It really depends on what your definition of bankroll is, and what your expected edge is on whatever you are betting.

    If your bankroll is your net worth, then you probably don't want to exceed 1%, but if your bankroll is replenishable it is acceptable to go higher.

    This. It's very situation-dependent.

    Since I got my gambling start from reading blackjack books, I'll continue to use Stanford Wong's definition of "bankroll" which is basically "The amount that, if lost, would cause you to quit gambling forever." As an admittedly risk-averse pro, I don't approach 3% on anything. At times, it's certainly mathematically sub-optimal, but it's what I'm comfortable with.
  • RaloRalo Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Well well, Heritage just came up with a new one, scrambling RAS game totals.

    Scambled the board until they could adjust and add 3-4 points. So much for the edge.

    Phoenix takes off all the totals and waits two (2) hours and then puts them back up.

    And life goes on.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    I was just there I didn't get a scrambled board
  • RaloRalo Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    At the time of release they sure did.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Interesting to note that throughout the day they were taking in 42k a pop for sides but they moved down to 14k near release time (back to 42k now). This obviously hurts everybody's chances to get down but its clever on their part.

    I did manage to get 2 out of 3 but I do not expect to have that kind of ratio going forward as clients will adjust just like they have for RAS.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    BeardedTaco wrote: »
    You guys are talking about theory #2 which implies Pinny traders are paying attention to the quality services in their markets and making sure they don't get hit for a big chunk. Pinny is smart no doubt about that but are they that concerned about the services? One or two limit bets and the value is mostly gone.

    Theory #1 is a person/group that built a software that accelerates the betting from the RAS Countdown page to the Pinny software.

    Back in 2006 when pinny was still in the USA market I was betting dr bob NCAAF at pinny every week. He was coming off his 70% season in 2005 and winning again nicely in 2006. I had just started betting so was betting way below the limit, but even though the plays were emailed getting the exact release # was never a problem even though I'm sure some people were hitting the limit (it took a lot more money to move a line then). The lines would then all move 3+ pts within a few minutes.

    Then one week when the email came I went to bet and all the lines had already moved. This continued for a few weeks. Rumor was that pinnacle was subscribing and moving on air. Bob started using a release page and I was able to get the bets in again.

    I do not know if pinny presently subscribes to RAS but I have not had much success trying to bet them there (though I haven't tried for quite a while). I do know that when Loshak at SBR interviewed the alleged pinny trader he asked about "Right Angle Sports" and the guy claimed to not know who that was. Then 2 seconds later he refers to them as RAS. Must have learned real fast :)
  • mlbomlbo Junior Member
    edited September 2012
    I know a guy with a script that still can't get the bets in at Pinny...
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    he needs a colo server
  • speculatorspeculator Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    I LOVE your defintion of bankroll. That's what I use, but never able to define it SO WELL!
  • ContrarianContrarian Banned
    edited October 2012
    ouch rough start
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