Betting Talk

NFL Prop Plays Thread

tro19tro19 Senior Member
edited December 2012 in Sports Betting
I will not be keeping a record since I get most of my props from different sites. Welcome Back everyone and Good Luck this year!

Week 1

Demarco Murray over 76.5 rushing yards -130 (Allpro)

G-men gave up 4.5 ypc last year and have some injury issues with Boley questionable at LB, Austin out at DT, and some other guys banged up. Giants were 29th in the league against the run. I think Murray gets this number and may get to 100. GL
«1345

Comments

  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Week 1 continued

    Winner Thursday night for a good start. Let's continue Sunday

    Doug Martin (TB) over 65.5 rushing yards -120 (Bovada). Tampa real high on this guy and a Carolina D who was one of the worst in the league vs the rush.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Matt Ryan over 259.5 passing yards -135 (Allpro). 2 words, White and Jones. Can anyone cover Julio? Total seems low to me.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2012
    Agree with both. GL.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Gonna take a flyer on this one. To much value to pass on.

    First TD of Packers/49ers game. Randall Cobb 18/1.

    .1 units to win 1.8 units (Bovada)
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    +1.9 units yesterday for a 2.9 unit profit for week one so far. Nothing I really like tonight but for fun I am playing Gresham to score the first TD at 9/1 for .1 units. Not an official play
  • hornsfanhornsfan Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    congrats on the great start. best of luck the rest of the way.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Thanks, a long season and hopefully I can keep posting winners
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Week 2

    Jermichael Finley to score a TD in game +115 (Bovada)

    I know, Green Bay has so many weapons, but Finley has tremendous numbers in the past vs the Bears. He will get plenty of targets without Jennings who is listed as doubtful.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    First TD of the game

    . 1 units on these

    A Rodgers 18/1
    A Jeffery 12/1
    R Cobb 12/1
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Adding Kellen Davis to that list 20/1

    Lean on the over 51.5 on the game. The weather will clear up and both teams will be taking shots down the field. Look for lots of pass interference penalties especially on the GB side. Quick scores and plenty of weapons even if Jennings is a no go. Thoughts???
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    I left Marshall off this list since there isn't alot of value. I will be betting .1 units on Cutler to score first TD also but won't post it. The odds are 30/1. One thing I know about GB, especially Charles Woodson, he will mug a receiver before he gives up a TD. Ball on the one, and you got a shot. Bush or Fort will be the favorites to get it, but at 30/1 it's worth a stab. A-Rod always a threat to rush it in if they are close.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    -1.4 units for the night. I've always told myself, beware the prime-time games. Back on Sunday with some winners
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Week 2 continued

    Wes Welker over 67.5 yards receiving -130 (Allpro)

    I think Brady goes off today and I don't buy them fading Welker. I expect him to be in the mix and he's the type of guy who could get this by halftime.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Adrian Petrerson over 89.5 yards rushing -115 (Bovada)

    After seeing Chicago's O-line get demolished the other night against the Pack (the same line that looked pretty good against the Colts in week 1) shows that Indy is in bad shape and without Freeney.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Antonio Brown over 62.5 yards receiving -115 (Bovada)

    Revis out, and I don't see the running game working for either team. Brown is now the go to guy over Wallace.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Eric Decker over 69.5 yard receiving -115 (Bovada)

    A list of receivers from last year that had big games against the Falcons. Catches and Yds. Kinda hard not to like Decker here. I believe he is Mannings #1 target.

    Maclin 13-171
    James Jones 5-140
    Megatron 5-115
    Colston 8-113
    Nate Washington 9-115
    Percy Harvin 8-95
    Jimmy Smith 6-125
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Leans

    Denver +3
    Under 51.5

    Gotta go with Manning here with a star corner out for Atlanta (another reason I like Decker), and yes Atlanta has been tough at home, but Brees and Rodgers got the job done there, why not Peyton? Denver's got a solid defense and a good running game.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    -1.70 units week 2. Coulda been worse as Welker bet would've lost more than likely if Hernandez wouldn't have gotten hurt. Still +1.20 units on the year
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Week 3

    Dennis Pitta over 56.5 receiving yards -115 (Allpro)

    Pitta had 15 targets last week and he's against the Pats this week, looks solid to me.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Kyle Rudolph over 3.5 receptions -115 (Bovada)

    Rudolph has 12 targets in 2 games and this guy has so much upside. Niners have given up a TD to a TE in first 2 games and I like Rudolph's chances at this number.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Antonio Brown over 4.5 receptions -130 (Allpro) 2 unit play

    Oakland secondary is a total disaster.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Aaron Rodgers over 17.5 rushing yards -120 (Bovada)

    A-Rod since the beginning of 2009 season has gone under this number just 16 times in 40 games. Many of these games he sat out a good portion of the 4th quarter. So far this year he has 27 rushing yards vs San Fran and -6 against Chicago.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Wow, tough loss on that prop. First play of the game, Rodgers rushes 16 yards and only manages 1 yard after that. Lose by a half a yard. Don't even want to mention the game. Was looking like a good week, but only managed +.65 units. Better than losing though, so will take it. +1.85 units on the year so far.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Tough loss man, keep em coming!
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited September 2012
    Joe Flacco under 280.5 yards passing -120 (Bovada)

    2009 vs Cleveland 2 game total - 497 avg of 248 per game
    2010 vs Cleveland 2 game total -364 avg of 182 per game
    2011 vs Cleveland 2 game total -290 avg of 145 per game

    I see a trend here. IMO Flacco has overachieved with the numbers he has put up and Cleveland should keep this one tight. Short week, look for an ugly game here, lean on the under
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Loss last week -1.20 units for +0.0 units on the year. Let's try and get back on track this week.

    Jermaine Gresham over 45.5 yards -115 (Allpro)

    Miami secondary is horrid and tight ends have posted good #s against them. Gresham getting plenty of targets.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    2 unit play

    Dennis Pitta over 3.5 receptions -130 (Allpro)

    Pitta getting 7 targets per game and factor in the hurry up offense. Won't mind laying the juice
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Lost weighted play as Pitta goes without a catch in the 2nd half to end up with 3. Another tough loss. -1.6 units on the year.
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Mark Sanchez under 195.5 yards passing -120 (Bovada)

    I don't see Sanchez being able to do anything here. Possible Tebow sighting tonight?
  • tro19tro19 Senior Member
    edited October 2012
    Bet was actually -125 and was a loss. -2.85 units on the year. JJ Watt is a beast, he just needed to bat down about 4 more passes.
Sign In or Register to comment.