Betting Talk

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
edited July 2013 in Sports Betting
Who you guys got tommorow? Any idea how much approximately a hot dog is worth juice wise :-) (semi serious but know it depends on the variance of the eater)

From 5dimes

Other Sports Competitive Eating Spread Money Line Total Points
2012 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, Brooklyn, NY - ESPN - Wednesday, July 04, 2012 11:25 AM
519 Tim Janus hot dogs eaten (10 min) -230
520 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten (10 min) +170

521 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten (10 min) -350
522 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten (10 min) +250

523 Bob Shoudt hot dogs eaten (10 min) -105
524 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten (10 min) -135

525 Erik Denmark hot dogs eaten (10 min) -180
526 Juliet Lee hot dogs eaten (10 min) +140

Womens 2012 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, Brooklyn, NY - ESPN - Wednesday, July 04, 2012 11:25 AM
801 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten (10 min) -1750
802 Juliet Lee hot dogs eaten (10 min) +1000

803 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten over 41½ +130
804 Sonya Thomas hot dogs eaten under 41½ -160

805 Juliet Lee hot dogs eaten over 28½ -135
806 Juliet Lee hot dogs eaten under 28½ +105

Mens 2012 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, Brooklyn, NY - ESPN - Wednesday, July 04, 2012 12:00 PM
501 Joey Chestnut wins Nathan's Contest -1250
502 Field wins Nathan's Contest +800

511 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten (10 min) -9½ +100
512 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten (10 min) +9½ -130

513 Tim Janus hot dogs eaten (10 min) +150
514 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten (10 min) -190

515 Tim Janus hot dogs eaten (10 min) -245
516 Bob Shoudt hot dogs eaten (10 min) +175

517 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten (10 min) -350
518 Bob Shoudt hot dogs eaten (10 min) +250

601 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 62½ +115
602 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 62½ -145

603 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten over 53½ +105
604 P.Bertoletti hot dogs eaten under 53½ -135

605 Tim Janus hot dogs eaten over 45½ +100
606 Tim Janus hot dogs eaten under 45½ -140

607 Bob Shoudt hot dogs eaten over 39½ +110
608 Bob Shoudt hot dogs eaten under 39½ -150

609 Erik Denmark hot dogs eaten over 32½ -120
610 Erik Denmark hot dogs eaten under 32½ -120

611 Pete Davekos hot dogs eaten over 24½ -130
612 Pete Davekos hot dogs eaten under 24½ -110

Comments

  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    I played 515 and 517 elsewhere (at -240 and -260 repectively). I also played Chestnut to win at -650.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    I think Sonya Thomas -135 over Bob Shoudt is a better play than both of those. Do you really have multiple outs for Nathans?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    Also, in case anyone doesn't know, the contest is NOT being shown live on ESPN. It's on at 3pm et on tape delay b/c of Wimbledon. Huge disgrace IMO.

    Live coverage is available on ESPN3 beginning with the women at 11:25am et followed by the men at noon et.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    kass101 wrote: »
    Do you really have multiple outs for Nathans?

    I wouldn't have posted it if I didn't. Every book I use has some props up, and at least one other than 5Dimes has that whole list.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    Goats what do you think the fair price on Chestnut is. Unless he has an epic bad day its gonna be tough for him to lose, but they don't eat hot dogs enough for me to know if they can have a bad run like a horse or something. In fact I don't have him on the record in any hot dog contests since the last Nathans July 4th contest.

    I saw Bertoletti had a low qualifier but looks like he constantly sandbags those.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Bertoletti is all over the map 55 in 09, 37 in 10, and 53 in 11.

    Chestnut ate 10 pounds of corned beef in march I really dont think the foot matter. The only thing I know is that some guys are better at speed than volume and the other way around. This was a 10 minute comp.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Goats wrote: »
    Also, in case anyone doesn't know, the contest is NOT being shown live on ESPN. It's on at 3pm et on tape delay b/c of Wimbledon. Huge disgrace IMO.

    Live coverage is available on ESPN3 beginning with the women at 11:25am et followed by the men at noon et.

    First time ever? what a fucking disgrace to America. Another reason why I watch ESPN less and less except during CFB season.

    But it is just another way to pimp their ESPN360 crap.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    Goats what do you think the fair price on Chestnut is. Unless he has an epic bad day its gonna be tough for him to lose, but they don't eat hot dogs enough for me to know if they can have a bad run like a horse or something. In fact I don't have him on the record in any hot dog contests since the last Nathans July 4th contest.

    I saw Bertoletti had a low qualifier but looks like he constantly sandbags those.

    If you actually looked at qualifiers and what contests these guys have competed in during the year, you've done way more research than me. I'm not even going to pretend I put effort into those, I just looked at the last 6 years of Nathan's results and no one other than Kobayashi has come within 9 HD's of Chestnut, so I figure he can have a bad day and still win. Couldn't tell you what the fair line should be, -650 just seemed too low. Same simple logic for the matchups I played, Shoudt has only come close to beating either of them like once ever and I think he still lost by 3.

    Talk to Kass, he obviously knows way more about this stuff than I do.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    2012 May 19
    10 min IFOCE
    units: sandwiches World CheeseSteak Eating Championship
    http://ifoce.com/contests.php?action=detail&eventID=470

    1st 20 $1,500.00 Pat "Deep Dish" Bertoletti Chicago, IL
    2nd 17 $750.00 Joey "Jaws" Chestnut San Jose, CA
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Goats wrote: »

    Talk to Kass, he obviously knows way more about this stuff than I do.

    Ha I just tried to google what he had done this year since I was curious.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Would be nice if that Japanese guy would come back and challenge Chestnut. Right now nobody else is able to stay within 10 dogs of the champ.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Dam, I love gambling.It shows folks how far we have come when we mathematically break down eating contests!
  • milfhuntermilfhunter Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    SOnya Thomas at over 40.5 dogs anybody??
  • milfhuntermilfhunter Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Im in with the black widow over 40.5. just read shes going to go for 45, she knows her stomach can handle it its all mental. we shall see
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    milfhunter wrote: »
    Im in with the black widow over 40.5. just read shes going to go for 45, she knows her stomach can handle it its all mental. we shall see

    Link?

    EDIT: Nevermind, should have just googled first... http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/news/20120703/hot-dog-eating-contest/
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    milfhunter wrote: »
    Im in with the black widow over 40.5. just read shes going to go for 45, she knows her stomach can handle it its all mental. we shall see

    Nice call sir.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    Further disgrace... the ESPN3 feed is having all types of technical difficulties.

    Now the men's coverage comes on, this is supposed to be live, but the women are still competing in the background (even though they finished a while ago).
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    I missed the womans are the results up anywhere? a girl I used to go to college with was competing.

    How many did sonya get?
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    45 for Sonya
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    Women's results...

    https://twitter.com/#!/eatingcontest
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Goats wrote: »
    Women's results...

    https://twitter.com/#!/eatingcontest

    The girl I went to college with got 4th at 21.5 thats crazy.
  • cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Just watched in ESPN3...Joey Chestnut wins at 68 dogs (unofficial total).
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    Good job all, looks like nothing but winners posted in this thread.

    Anyone else hungry?

    EDIT: My bad, looks like Thomas/Shoudt was a push.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited July 2013
    Goats, it's your time to shine. Do you (or anyone else for that matter) have any thoughts that you're willing to share?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    Goats, it's your time to shine. Do you (or anyone else for that matter) have any thoughts that you're willing to share?

    I didn't even see any props up yesterday, all I see now is Chestnut o/u 63.5 and will he win, nothing like last year's list.

    In any case, I'm not at home and didn't bother looking at it this year when I didn't see any lines. That said, Chestnut -1000 or -1100 seems like a solid bet if you have access to it (I see -2000 at 5Dimes).
  • BayOceanBayOcean Senior Member
    edited July 2013
    RECALL-- Blood work showed Chestnut knows Alex Rodriguez and Balco-- he will be disqualified and all Frankfurter belts will be sold on PAWN STARS.smileyvault-cute-big-smiley-animated-082.gif
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited July 2013
    I heard these dogs are specialy made without any sodium for these contests :)
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