Betting Talk

Question!

redrum14redrum14 Senior Member
edited July 2012 in Sports Betting
My local has 9 1/2 on total of tiger game and my 5 dimes account offshore has 10 1/2. Is my local slow or was there a major move on the under!

Comments

  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    07/02 09:37 PM PDT

    MLB pitching change

    Game #969 - 970

    Detroit Tigers - D BELOW -L for M SCHERZER-R
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    Total went from approx 9.5 U-115 to 10.5 und -115 when that change happened. So your local is slow.

    Have you ever noticed how he handles pitching changes?
  • redrum14redrum14 Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Just put 500 on over! He has below and Blackburn as starters so I will do a middle and a little more on the over! Thanks for the insight!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited July 2012
    redrum14 wrote: »
    Just put 500 on over! He has below and Blackburn as starters so I will do a middle and a little more on the over! Thanks for the insight!

    Do you actually like the under, or are you just playing it for the sake of trying to middle? I'm asking because you'd be sitting in a very nice +EV position as it stands, and there isn't really a reason to give away some of that +EV unless you actually like the under tonight.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    TommyL wrote: »
    Do you actually like the under, or are you just playing it for the sake of trying to middle? I'm asking because you'd be sitting in a very nice +EV position as it stands, and there isn't really a reason to give away some of that +EV unless you actually like the under tonight.

    Only other reason would be if $500 is a significantly large wager for him (i.e. a larger % of his BR than he should be leaving naked on the +EV side). Other than that, you're obviously correct.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2012
    I'd personally wait till closer to gametime also to make sure the over bet you put in is not going to be cancelled before you stick the "bad" under bet in (see goats message for only reason you should play under).
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited July 2012
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    I'd personally wait till closer to gametime also to make sure the over bet you put in is not going to be cancelled before you stick the "bad" under bet in (see goats message for only reason you should play under).

    Also a good point I hadn't thought of. It only took 3 different mods to cover the optimal way to play this... I think we're slipping. :)
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2012
    Unless you consistently bet a nickle a game your bet is a red flag. so many things can happen and it all depends what kind of player you are what type of local your playing with. If he knows about the pitching change and hasn't moved the number there has to be a reason. you never mention what the price was on the Over 9.5 you bet for a nickle. I would tread lightly would a local and then again it depends on the local. There were some back in the day I would never bet that game and then there was some that I knew I would be able to collect. Tough to give advice when you don't have all the facts.
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