Tailing Stevie at this time can be a little tough. Some games he is not even close. Arkansas was over after 10 minutes into game, and S. Miss never lead in 2nd half. Hate to say it , but after the "Jinx" by RAS , he has been a very bad tail.
Even tonite, it was basically a 1-3 nite, though he did win on Akron it was an OT win, to officially go 2-2.
Anyway he had a fabulous run, but has cooled quickly. I am hoping for a bounce back from him.
Tailing Stevie at this time can be a little tough. Some games he is not even close. Arkansas was over after 10 minutes into game, and S. Miss never lead in 2nd half. Hate to say it , but after the "Jinx" by RAS , he has been a very bad tail. Even tonite, it was basically a 1-3 nite, though he did win on Akron it was an OT win, to officially go 2-2.
Anyway he had a fabulous run, but has cooled quickly. I am hoping for a bounce back from him.
I suppose i can see what you're saying, but that sure is an awful way to look at it.
Edward also put Stevie's record out on Twitter, I think it was right before the jinx thread. I think it was something like 'exclusively on Betting Talk'. He did the same with NBA GURU..........probably didn't help the market for those following
Edward also put Stevie's record out on Twitter, I think it was right before the jinx thread. I think it was something like 'exclusively on Betting Talk'. He did the same with NBA GURU..........probably didn't help the market for those following
I would have put his record on Twitter also if I owned this forum or any forum for that matter. At $10 a head to join that is quite a take with 12000+ members. Great Marketing Ed.
I would have put his record on Twitter also if I owned this forum or any forum for that matter. At $10 a head to join that is quite a take with 12000+ members. Great Marketing Ed.
OK.....just saying that there are people that bet dimes on these games and it made it harder to get some numbers, and Ed probably doesn't need an extra 10 bucks,
OK.....just saying that there are people that bet dimes on these games and it made it harder to get some numbers, and Ed probably doesn't need an extra 10 bucks,
Agree he doesn't need $10 but this still is a business (I guess I am speaking for Ed) and if 100 people join thats a nice bonus for simply Tweeting a few times. I think 7 people joined since yesterday. I would take $70 wouldn't you?
Agree with you on the numbers. If I can't get them in the morning I just wait and hope. Totals never seem to move back but the sides sometimes do.
Tailing Stevie at this time can be a little tough. Some games he is not even close. Arkansas was over after 10 minutes into game, and S. Miss never lead in 2nd half. Hate to say it , but after the "Jinx" by RAS , he has been a very bad tail.
Even tonite, it was basically a 1-3 nite, though he did win on Akron it was an OT win, to officially go 2-2.
Anyway he had a fabulous run, but has cooled quickly. I am hoping for a bounce back from him.
I wasn't going to bother responding, but I feel there's a god general point to mention here.
I hope you take it constructively b/c that's how it's meant. You're looking at a very small sample size. If you want to argue it's tougher to win late in the season, Stevie posted his FEB-MAR record for the past 2 years in his discussion thread when someone asked and he's done just fine. If you feel he's unlikely do well enough late-season, then by all means, don't follow. I'm not trying to convince you either way. My main point is that looking at a few games that lost badly from a subset that is well into the positive over the past 2 seasons is probably not the best way to estimate a capper's win % going forward for that subset.
Just food for thought. Ultimately, it's your money, so do whatever you feel provides you with an edge and/or entertainment, depending on your goal.
EDIT: One more thing regarding wining in OT... unless you're going to go back and count how many times a dog or an under lost in OT, counting small fav wins in OT as losses is kinda silly IMO. Variance happens both ways and OT will both help and hurt at times.
I never complain around here. But anyone who is going to call Y a bad tail b/c hes had a "rough" FEW DAYS needs to examine what exactly they are looking for. The man has hit around 60% this yr.....60%....anyone who knows the SLIGHTEST about capping would KILL to have ONE 60% season, let alone 3 years in between 53 and 60%. I follow the guy and have enjoyed it and am grateful he takes the time to post. People talking about a god damn jinx and complaining because he didnt go 4-0 is what will drive smart people away from here. WAKE UP
I have e-mailed/posted/tweeted about Stevie around 10-12 times combined in the two years that he has been here. He probably deserves much more attention than what he is gotten. He is a valueable asset to the forum, and the hope is that having people like him post here will attract additional assets that will make this community stronger.
We aren't getting rich from the $10 registrations. Most months it doesn't even cover hosting costs. Most of the registered users were "grandfathered" in before we started the fee, many of the newer registrations get comped from being a RAS subscriber, or just don't complete the final registration step (paying the fee) to become active.
As for getting his lines, as long as you are at the computer around the time he posts, it hasn't appeared to be an impossible task, or even that difficult really. Especially if you have a few different outs to choose from. There may come a time when posting the sides in the morning will become more beneficial, but I don't think we are there yet.
We aren't getting rich from the $10 registrations. Most months it doesn't even cover hosting costs. Most of the registered users were "grandfathered" in before we started the fee, many of the newer registrations get comped from being a RAS subscriber, or just don't complete the final registration step (paying the fee) to become active.
Right that is what I was thinking as it costs money to run all your stuff.
You know you have become as overrated as Blake Griffin when people are chopping your season down to 7 day splits. 8-13 and the world is coming to an end. From 11/21-11/27, I was 8-12, add in the 4 days prior to that and I was 11-16. After that run, I went 22-4 and followed that up going 9-11. See a pattern here? Chop the season down enough and you can find these swings all over the place. If I wasn't keeping a record, I wouldn't even know what the run is.
Easy to point out the Akron game and not the 4 over the weekend that I lost being on the other side. Usually I don't bring those up, so I don't apologize when one goes my way. They don't even out, unless you are a coin flipper. In the middle of a 20-5 run, I lost an UN 139 total by 54 points. 54 points, 1 point, all the same, it's one game I was wrong about.
You know you have become as overrated as Blake Griffin when people are chopping your season down to 7 day splits. 8-13 and the world is coming to an end. From 11/21-11/27, I was 8-12, add in the 4 days prior to that and I was 11-16. After that run, I went 22-4 and followed that up going 9-11. See a pattern here? Chop the season down enough and you can find these swings all over the place. If I wasn't keeping a record, I wouldn't even know what the run is.
Easy to point out the Akron game and not the 4 over the weekend that I lost being on the other side. Usually I don't bring those up, so I don't apologize when one goes my way. They don't even out, unless you are a coin flipper. In the middle of a 20-5 run, I lost an UN 139 total by 54 points. 54 points, 1 point, all the same, it's one game I was wrong about.
here fuckin here.
keep it up stevie.
i know you wouldnt be where you are now without already knowing...haters gonna hate.
As for getting his lines, as long as you are at the computer around the time he posts, it hasn't appeared to be an impossible task, or even that difficult really. Especially if you have a few different outs to choose from. There may come a time when posting the sides in the morning will become more beneficial, but I don't think we are there yet.
Instead of moving them to the morning I think that a warning post in the thread saying 3 plays coming in 5 minutes would help a lot. The email delay is usualy about 2 minutes and sometimes that costs you the line. I know personally if I am at home on a Tuesday/Wed/Fri night I will be refreshing BT from 730-830 pacific knowing that if I wait for the email I may miss the line.
Instead of moving them to the morning I think that a warning post in the thread saying 3 plays coming in 5 minutes would help a lot. The email delay is usualy about 2 minutes and sometimes that costs you the line. I know personally if I am at home on a Tuesday/Wed/Fri night I will be refreshing BT from 730-830 pacific knowing that if I wait for the email I may miss the line.
Please god no....I never have a problem getting the line and I just get the email.
Instead of moving them to the morning I think that a warning post in the thread saying 3 plays coming in 5 minutes would help a lot. The email delay is usualy about 2 minutes and sometimes that costs you the line.
These warnings actually makes it even worse, when everybody are there trying to get their bets in at the same time.
Yeh probably true. One thing I would like to have as a constant, is a post in the previous weeks thread that a new thread is started. I miss pretty much every Monday play as do most everybody I would assume.
Stay up and bet the overnights........Akron minus 2.5 saved me tonight
If you are betting serious money, in all likelihood you will have trouble betting his overnights, or any overnights that would constitute steam play, without finding some good outs. (Same with his added game CBB totals.) There are literally no decent post-up books open to US citizens that will allow me to play his overnights, and in some cases, they haven't for many years. For example, Bookmaker is very tolerant of originating but they are not tolerant of following steam, as they cut me off from his overnights along with many other SSB subscribers sometime around 2006, and at the time I was not betting nearly as large as many other sharps. There are offscreen and credit outs and such, but I've been stiffed so badly by well recommended agents that I've grown weary of credit. Then again, I was also stiffed badly by highly rated books like Cascade and WSEX.
Not a complaint about Stevie, rather it's actually a compliment to him, but I see frequent complaints on other forums from people annoyed that their book cut them off for betting RAS and similar. Books are not in the business of giving money away, and there is a limit to how well you can do as a follower when the person/group you are following is well known and the markets are smaller, like overnights and CBB totals.
Yeh probably true. One thing I would like to have as a constant, is a post in the previous weeks thread that a new thread is started. I miss pretty much every Monday play as do most everybody I would assume.
Just check in every ten minutes like the rest of us degens do.
If you are betting serious money, in all likelihood you will have trouble betting his overnights, or any overnights that would constitute steam play, without finding some good outs. (Same with his added game CBB totals.) There are literally no decent post-up books open to US citizens that will allow me to play his overnights, and in some cases, they haven't for many years. For example, Bookmaker is very tolerant of originating but they are not tolerant of following steam, as they cut me off from his overnights along with many other SSB subscribers sometime around 2006, and at the time I was not betting nearly as large as many other sharps. There are offscreen and credit outs and such, but I've been stiffed so badly by well recommended agents that I've grown weary of credit. Then again, I was also stiffed badly by highly rated books like Cascade and WSEX.
Not a complaint about Stevie, rather it's actually a compliment to him, but I see frequent complaints on other forums from people annoyed that their book cut them off for betting RAS and similar. Books are not in the business of giving money away, and there is a limit to how well you can do as a follower when the person/group you are following is well known and the markets are smaller, like overnights and CBB totals.
A lot of the "pros" on here and on various boards tend to take a holier than thou approach and are pretty tight-lipped about their knowledge of the biz....which is certainly understandable in the dog-eat-dog world that it is. As a non-pro, I always look forward to your posts because you communicate your information without being haughty and/or ultra-secretive. You seem to be one who most of the board can learn from and I thank you for that. Please post more, thanks.
Considering how much I pay for StevieY I would expect a warning countdown post! Oh wait...
He posts everything for free on Betting Talk. If you take the necessary time and steps to follow, than you are rewarded with getting his lines. Can we turn this into a thread about socialism?
As far as the OT discussion,for my personal use I basically grade at end of regulation. So if you had the dog and the dog gets blown out in OT I see it as a win, though obviously it is not paid by the "man" that way, also for totals if you stated the under and OT took it over, I view it as a win. I really look at the value of the pick, example many times I have seen a dog pick by Stevie that never trailed in the game. That is how I value picks. Maybe I over analyze who knows we all have our quirks.
I also realize sometimes our "systems" or are calculations get stuck on a particular item or team. Example - Wofford or Wisconsin over, and you see a handicapper playing them over and over, as my particular system is stuck on the 76ers, as I believe RAS was stuck on William & Mary. It simply comes from the system you have setup and it seems to work for almost everything but your system can't shake a particular team or situation, this happens and you are not going to change your entire system to correct that 1 team or a particular situation, it's just the way it is. LOL
I also greatly appreciate your College Hoops picks Stevie, absolutely fabulous, and your explanation of up & down trends was very assuring. thanks
instead my suggestion would be an afternoon post saying "no more picks for today's card" since stevy likes to add a play or two during the day
The extra plays after his normal 2 posts that occasionally happen should be the easiest lines to get. When the market has matured and the game is a few hours away the lines don't move nearly as fast.
Honestly all these extra suggestions kind of annoy me. He's posting his stuff for free, he answers questions and he posts every damn day. People should be falling over themselves to work around his schedule. Suggestions to make it "easier" for followers seem completely ridiculous and selfish.
The extra plays after his normal 2 posts that occasionally happen should be the easiest lines to get. When the market has matured and the game is a few hours away the lines don't move nearly as fast.
Honestly all these extra suggestions kind of annoy me. He's posting his stuff for free, he answers questions and he posts every damn day. People should be falling over themselves to work around his schedule. Suggestions to make it "easier" for followers seem completely ridiculous and selfish.
Pettimore
Senior Member
Comments
That said, when following anyone, taking numbers worse than what they post is generally not a good idea (yes, there are exceptions).
Believe it was a general statement, and yes -2.5 did help.
Even tonite, it was basically a 1-3 nite, though he did win on Akron it was an OT win, to officially go 2-2.
Anyway he had a fabulous run, but has cooled quickly. I am hoping for a bounce back from him.
I suppose i can see what you're saying, but that sure is an awful way to look at it.
I would have put his record on Twitter also if I owned this forum or any forum for that matter. At $10 a head to join that is quite a take with 12000+ members. Great Marketing Ed.
OK.....just saying that there are people that bet dimes on these games and it made it harder to get some numbers, and Ed probably doesn't need an extra 10 bucks,
Agree he doesn't need $10 but this still is a business (I guess I am speaking for Ed) and if 100 people join thats a nice bonus for simply Tweeting a few times. I think 7 people joined since yesterday. I would take $70 wouldn't you?
Agree with you on the numbers. If I can't get them in the morning I just wait and hope. Totals never seem to move back but the sides sometimes do.
I wasn't going to bother responding, but I feel there's a god general point to mention here.
I hope you take it constructively b/c that's how it's meant. You're looking at a very small sample size. If you want to argue it's tougher to win late in the season, Stevie posted his FEB-MAR record for the past 2 years in his discussion thread when someone asked and he's done just fine. If you feel he's unlikely do well enough late-season, then by all means, don't follow. I'm not trying to convince you either way. My main point is that looking at a few games that lost badly from a subset that is well into the positive over the past 2 seasons is probably not the best way to estimate a capper's win % going forward for that subset.
Just food for thought. Ultimately, it's your money, so do whatever you feel provides you with an edge and/or entertainment, depending on your goal.
EDIT: One more thing regarding wining in OT... unless you're going to go back and count how many times a dog or an under lost in OT, counting small fav wins in OT as losses is kinda silly IMO. Variance happens both ways and OT will both help and hurt at times.
We aren't getting rich from the $10 registrations. Most months it doesn't even cover hosting costs. Most of the registered users were "grandfathered" in before we started the fee, many of the newer registrations get comped from being a RAS subscriber, or just don't complete the final registration step (paying the fee) to become active.
As for getting his lines, as long as you are at the computer around the time he posts, it hasn't appeared to be an impossible task, or even that difficult really. Especially if you have a few different outs to choose from. There may come a time when posting the sides in the morning will become more beneficial, but I don't think we are there yet.
Right that is what I was thinking as it costs money to run all your stuff.
Pssh... he can afford it. When CBB ends, Ed goes swimming in his vault of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.
Easy to point out the Akron game and not the 4 over the weekend that I lost being on the other side. Usually I don't bring those up, so I don't apologize when one goes my way. They don't even out, unless you are a coin flipper. In the middle of a 20-5 run, I lost an UN 139 total by 54 points. 54 points, 1 point, all the same, it's one game I was wrong about.
here fuckin here.
keep it up stevie.
i know you wouldnt be where you are now without already knowing...haters gonna hate.
Instead of moving them to the morning I think that a warning post in the thread saying 3 plays coming in 5 minutes would help a lot. The email delay is usualy about 2 minutes and sometimes that costs you the line. I know personally if I am at home on a Tuesday/Wed/Fri night I will be refreshing BT from 730-830 pacific knowing that if I wait for the email I may miss the line.
Please god no....I never have a problem getting the line and I just get the email.
These warnings actually makes it even worse, when everybody are there trying to get their bets in at the same time.
If you are betting serious money, in all likelihood you will have trouble betting his overnights, or any overnights that would constitute steam play, without finding some good outs. (Same with his added game CBB totals.) There are literally no decent post-up books open to US citizens that will allow me to play his overnights, and in some cases, they haven't for many years. For example, Bookmaker is very tolerant of originating but they are not tolerant of following steam, as they cut me off from his overnights along with many other SSB subscribers sometime around 2006, and at the time I was not betting nearly as large as many other sharps. There are offscreen and credit outs and such, but I've been stiffed so badly by well recommended agents that I've grown weary of credit. Then again, I was also stiffed badly by highly rated books like Cascade and WSEX.
Not a complaint about Stevie, rather it's actually a compliment to him, but I see frequent complaints on other forums from people annoyed that their book cut them off for betting RAS and similar. Books are not in the business of giving money away, and there is a limit to how well you can do as a follower when the person/group you are following is well known and the markets are smaller, like overnights and CBB totals.
Just check in every ten minutes like the rest of us degens do.
A lot of the "pros" on here and on various boards tend to take a holier than thou approach and are pretty tight-lipped about their knowledge of the biz....which is certainly understandable in the dog-eat-dog world that it is. As a non-pro, I always look forward to your posts because you communicate your information without being haughty and/or ultra-secretive. You seem to be one who most of the board can learn from and I thank you for that. Please post more, thanks.
He posts everything for free on Betting Talk. If you take the necessary time and steps to follow, than you are rewarded with getting his lines. Can we turn this into a thread about socialism?
I also realize sometimes our "systems" or are calculations get stuck on a particular item or team. Example - Wofford or Wisconsin over, and you see a handicapper playing them over and over, as my particular system is stuck on the 76ers, as I believe RAS was stuck on William & Mary. It simply comes from the system you have setup and it seems to work for almost everything but your system can't shake a particular team or situation, this happens and you are not going to change your entire system to correct that 1 team or a particular situation, it's just the way it is. LOL
I also greatly appreciate your College Hoops picks Stevie, absolutely fabulous, and your explanation of up & down trends was very assuring. thanks
instead my suggestion would be an afternoon post saying "no more picks for today's card" since stevy likes to add a play or two during the day
The extra plays after his normal 2 posts that occasionally happen should be the easiest lines to get. When the market has matured and the game is a few hours away the lines don't move nearly as fast.
Honestly all these extra suggestions kind of annoy me. He's posting his stuff for free, he answers questions and he posts every damn day. People should be falling over themselves to work around his schedule. Suggestions to make it "easier" for followers seem completely ridiculous and selfish.
Abso-fucking-lutely.