Don't bet on basketball
Pettimore
Senior Member
Lines have gotten too tight.......ras is something like 8 and 23 in totals this month........and some of the winners didn't beat the closer..........run for the hills.
Comments
Keep it constructive please.
And the below is constructive how???? No big deal to me, just saying....
Obviously not every original post is necessarily going to be constructive, otherwise the forum would be dead. There's a difference between starting a thread and responding to one.
This latest 11-23 run on totals sucks, but as much as it is shocking even to me (the last thing you're thinking amidst a 67-31 run is that you are about to go 11-23) in reality it shouldn't be a shock to anyone, especially when considering three winning plays losing due to OT alone. Variance is a bitch and always will be.
In any case, I'm kind of thinking since all hot runs come to an end when these things start moving 4-5 pts its time to bet back against them and when they are only moving 2 points, just betting the pick is the way to go. It's been interesting to say the least to watch the line movements.
Ed - do you think you have a bigger edge on sides or totals? I used to think totals, but I am beginning to think sides or at least sides seem to have less variance and sure as heck let you get a lot more money down at the pick line or minus a half. I guess what I'm asking is if you max bet the pick at $2k would you rather bet another 2-3k at -.5 on a side or -2.5 on a total?
When losing streaks hit, there just isn't going to be much demand for numbers that are more than a point or so worse than the release line.
As for the sides vs totals question, it is hard to say. If you go back 3-5 years, totals have definitely done better. If you go back 2 years, sides have done better. If you go back 2 weeks, totals were doing better than sides this year. Some people will say the totals market has changed, but has it really changed enough to make sides easier? I don't know for sure, but probably not.
Does the market really believe in streaks? Enough to change the amount that the line moves? That's amazing to me, if true. Each game is obviously independent, and while streaks have to exist, they are not predictive in any way.
I certainly think the totals market is harder than it was 2 years ago.
I also think the totals market increases in efficiency more throughout the season than the totals market does. I feel like beating totals at this point in the season is much tougher than beating sides.
That should say sides in the previous post. The totals market increases in efficiency more than the sides market does (at least that's my opinion).
Definitely agree with this. In fact, I would say that you could argue that NCAAB totals is the sharpest market around, considering that the ratio of "sharp" minds to dead money capping totals is somewhere on the order of 9:1, and that's probably a conservative estimate.
I am guessing that Joe Sixpack who bets NCAAF sides/totals NFL NBA sides probably looks at NCAAB totals and says "no way do I wanna bet that stuff." I am not saying that Joe Sixpack makes any of the aforementioned markets move, but the only competitors that NCAAB totals cappers have are other totals cappers, thus the competition for the "good" numbers is fierce.
Hope that makes sense.
To further comment on this post, I should clarify that I do believe in the market getting more efficient as the season goes. I just don't believe that hot/cold streaks are predictive in any way.
When measuring the toughness of a market, another big variable is what time of day you are playing into it. Perhaps sides at 7:30-8:00am are easier or comparable to beating totals at 2:00-3:00pm, but if I had to choose one or the other at the same time of day, I would definitely go with totals.
Then why is team RAS shutting down for 45 days?
We aren't shutting it down, we just aren't offering a service.
My question was that your statement (and I seem to recall reading that you had joined team RAS) that "NCAA totals remain the easiest of the major sports to beat" seemed to be contradictory to the fact that ras is shutting down the service for a significant portion of the season. It just seemed/seems illogical and paradoxical to me, but I'm obv not privy to all motives/reasoning/rationalizations for the apparent dichotomy, so it's probably best that I not comment further.
Good luck the rest of the season!
That said, CBB totals are impossible to follow - gotta be the guy initiating them. Sides are a much better market for services.
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