LSU/MSU thoughts....
sparkyl2
Senior Member
I think alot of people are pretty confused by this line and are using the old adage of "if it looks too good to be true, than it usually is". I haven't really seen any reasoning behind taking MSU other than the thought that LSU-3 is a sucker bet.
A little history here. MSU last beat LSU in 1998. For whatever reason, the Tigers just own them and are 7-1 ATS in the last vs MSU. MSU hung up 550+ yards on Auburn but the week before Utah State put up +475 yards on Auburn. In week 1 MSU put up over 600+ yards against Memphis but then last week Ark State also put up over 600+ yards vs Memphis. So is the MSU offense that good or are the 2 defenses they played just that bad? I think MSU has a very solid offense but the numbers are grossly inflated because of playing 2 weak defenses that Utah State and Arkansas State were able to put up similar numbers against.
Defensively, MSU allowed 250 yards rushing vs Auburn while Utah State only allowed 96 yards rushing against Auburn. In week 1 MSU allowed 161 yards rushing against Memphis while Arkansas State only allowed 81 yards rushing against Memphis. LSU on the other hand held Oregon, (arguably the best spread rushing attack in the country) to around 80 yards rushing and lowly Nwestern state to under 20 yards rushing.
So MSU has ran the ball extremely well against 2 teams that 2 non BCS teams also ran the ball equally well against and MSU has allowed more rushing yards than the 2 non BCS teams did. To me, on paper and given the history of the series, this matchup really isn't that close. By using the old theory of "if it looks to good to be true, it usually is" you can often give away perceived value by being afraid to bet on games that you feel you have a true edge in. I don't adhere to this theory. If I cap a game at -7 and the line is -3, why on earth would I not bet it? Just because I am in fear of the game "looking too good to be true"? If I'm not going to bet on the games that I think looks good then what in the world am I going to bet on?
The x factors in this matchup are 1. The Thursday night home team. Over the last 5 years, the home team on Thursday is 47-27 ATS on Thursday night
25-16 (.610) as a favorite
22-11 (.667) as a dog
Of the 22 covers by the home dogs, 18 were outright wins. That scares me a little. The other x factor is Jarrett Lee. The 2009 season is still fresh on my memory when he was a pick 6 throwing machine. While that concerns me a little, it doesn't scare me away from this game. Another thing in LSU's favor is that MSU just had its heart ripped out by Auburn on the 1 yard line. That's tough to get over and I imagine there was a bit of an emotional hangover until at least Monday or Tuesday. I expect the stadium to be rocking and I expect MSU to keep this one close early. But in the end, the team that can run the ball AND stop the run, usually wins. History of 12 straight wins and 7/8 ATS covers by LSU is also on our side. 34-21 Tigahs.
A little history here. MSU last beat LSU in 1998. For whatever reason, the Tigers just own them and are 7-1 ATS in the last vs MSU. MSU hung up 550+ yards on Auburn but the week before Utah State put up +475 yards on Auburn. In week 1 MSU put up over 600+ yards against Memphis but then last week Ark State also put up over 600+ yards vs Memphis. So is the MSU offense that good or are the 2 defenses they played just that bad? I think MSU has a very solid offense but the numbers are grossly inflated because of playing 2 weak defenses that Utah State and Arkansas State were able to put up similar numbers against.
Defensively, MSU allowed 250 yards rushing vs Auburn while Utah State only allowed 96 yards rushing against Auburn. In week 1 MSU allowed 161 yards rushing against Memphis while Arkansas State only allowed 81 yards rushing against Memphis. LSU on the other hand held Oregon, (arguably the best spread rushing attack in the country) to around 80 yards rushing and lowly Nwestern state to under 20 yards rushing.
So MSU has ran the ball extremely well against 2 teams that 2 non BCS teams also ran the ball equally well against and MSU has allowed more rushing yards than the 2 non BCS teams did. To me, on paper and given the history of the series, this matchup really isn't that close. By using the old theory of "if it looks to good to be true, it usually is" you can often give away perceived value by being afraid to bet on games that you feel you have a true edge in. I don't adhere to this theory. If I cap a game at -7 and the line is -3, why on earth would I not bet it? Just because I am in fear of the game "looking too good to be true"? If I'm not going to bet on the games that I think looks good then what in the world am I going to bet on?
The x factors in this matchup are 1. The Thursday night home team. Over the last 5 years, the home team on Thursday is 47-27 ATS on Thursday night
25-16 (.610) as a favorite
22-11 (.667) as a dog
Of the 22 covers by the home dogs, 18 were outright wins. That scares me a little. The other x factor is Jarrett Lee. The 2009 season is still fresh on my memory when he was a pick 6 throwing machine. While that concerns me a little, it doesn't scare me away from this game. Another thing in LSU's favor is that MSU just had its heart ripped out by Auburn on the 1 yard line. That's tough to get over and I imagine there was a bit of an emotional hangover until at least Monday or Tuesday. I expect the stadium to be rocking and I expect MSU to keep this one close early. But in the end, the team that can run the ball AND stop the run, usually wins. History of 12 straight wins and 7/8 ATS covers by LSU is also on our side. 34-21 Tigahs.
Comments
38.5 or so. Similar to the 09 season if I recall
U think LSU will be giving 38.5? I only have them as a 23 point favorite over the Tide, but you would know.....