2011 Preakness Stakes Analysis and Picks from Jaan
jaanis
Senior Member
OK I was somewhat close on the Kentucky Derby. Had the trifecta so that was nice. Lets do the same in smaller 14 horse field with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. I will also post: 2011 Preakness Stakes Contenders, Odds, Post Positions, Picks, Predictions, Results, Payouts, Post Time, Video, Winner
Link to Free PPs:
http://www1.drf.com/tc/preakness/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-preakness-stakes-pps.pdf
Other Resources
http://www.preakness.com/
http://www.drf.com/news/
Post Horse name Trainer Jockey Opening odds (to 1)
1 Astrology Steve Asmussen Mike E. Smith 15-1
I like this colts chances. You get Smith/Asmussen which is always good. The horse is 6 for 6 in the money, on the dirt lifetime. Distance should not be an issue. I dont like only 2 races in 6+ months and has faced some cheaper horses versus others in here. With that said I will be using hime for second and in some trifectas and exactas as I should be getting more than the money line here.
2 Norman Asbjornson Chris Grove Julian Pimental 30-1
Could be a home town favorite with Maryland based trainer Chris Grove. Colt has been improving up to this race and Grove has had the Preakness in mind the whole year for the horse. The problem is I just dont think he will have the talent needed to win here. No go for me.
3 King Congie Thomas Albertrani Robby Albarado 20-1
This is an interesting horse. Another one that raced better on synthetic rather than dirt. The 2 dirt starts were pretty miserable at Belmont. Ran a very close third in the last start at Keeneland, closing very late with stablemate Brilliant Speed who is skipping this race and opting for the Belmont Stakes. His works have been good since the Bluegrass and Robby Albarado might want to prove the connections of Animal Kingdom wrong after he was taken on the mount in the Derby a day before the race. I will throw in for a few trifectas and exactas, but probably not the winner here.
4 Flashpoint Wesley Ward Cornelio Velasquez 20-1
I am not sure how Cornhole can pull this one back and rate. He is pure speed, but I feel to much and will be fading in the end. The distance will the biggest issue for this Colt as 1 3/16 will be just to long. Leaving out.
5 Shackleford Dale Romans Jesus Castanon 12-1
Your Kentucky Derby leader until the last furlong. Lead the race on very slow fractions. Dont think he will be able to do that here with other speed in the race. Will be out front early with others. Dirt and distance will not be an issue. I cant put my finger on why I dont like him here or why I didnt like him in the Derby. Might throw in a Superfecta.
6 Sway Away Jeff Bonde Garrett Gomez 15-1
This horse will take more money than it should on Saturday. he finished 4th behind ArchArchArch, Nehro and Dance City last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Will be taking the blinkers off in this start to help the colt focus and run off on the start. I dont see enough in his previous starts to tell me he will win here.
7 Midnight Interlude Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 15-1
As I said in the Derby these West coasters simple stink moving over to the East coast dirt. He proved that finishing 16th in the Derby out of 19 horses. Feel this one will finish 12th out of 14 here. Throw out.
8 Dance City Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 12-1
Really want to like this horse, but he is probably going to be in speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford. Hasnt done anything wrong on the dirt which is more than you can say for others in here. Love Ramon/Pletcher combo, but is that enough to show in the money here?
9 Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo Rajiv Maragh 6-1
Liked this horse in the Derby and did finish well, a close 3rd. I like him in this race as well. The horse is younger than others in here and every race adds to experience for him. You also have to love the inspirational story with trainer Kathy Ritvo getting a heart transplant. Using for 3rd.
10 Dialed In Nick Zito Julien Leparoux 9-2
My pick in the Derby and did well with a horrible trip. I am putting a line through the Derby race as it doesnt tell me anything about what this horse can really do. He finished 9th, but was squeezed horribly in the start and never had a chance., Once he got some room was closing well. Should be in MUCH better shape here for the Preakness. Has done nothing wrong on the dirt going 3 for 5. My pick to win .again, but if the price is to short look elsewhere for value.
11 Animal Kingdom H. Graham Motion John R. Velazquez 2-1
Huge winner in the Kentucky Derby. Closed well into slow fractions and that might be the problem. Wont be slow on Saturday at all. My only question for him when i capped the Derby was if he could handle the dirt. He proved that could so he is a real monster on all three surfaces. I want to use him in a few trifectas, but dont want to take such a short price to win.
12 Isnt He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal Edgar Prado 30-1
Isnt He Perfect is not that perfect. Finished 5th in the most recent race, the Jerome G2, is not what I like to see coming in here. His pedigree suggest he likes the distance, his recent results suggests he will finish last. Outta here.
13 Concealed Identity Edmond Gaudet Sheldon Russell 30-1
You always get one local yokal horse in the Preakness. The colt is 2 for 2 at Pimlico which can be a tricky track considering all other horses have NEVER raced on it. Could be a nice live long shot to use in your exotic plays.
14 Mr. Commons John Shirreffs Victor Espinoza 20-1
Colt had every reason to win in the Santa Anita Derby and didnt, finishing 3rd. Mike Smith moves off this horse to the one isnt giving me more reason to bet him here. Only starts on the synthetic and trying dirt for the first time? No thanks.
Conclusion: With the shorter distance for Preakness (1 3/16 miles) versus the Derby (1 1/4 miles) I feel it is even more important to be on or near the lead. So I will take horses that will be up front.
Predictions:
1. Dialed In
2. Astrology
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. King Congie
Others to Consider:
5. Animal Kingdom
6. Concealed Identity
7. Dance City
Bets:
WP $20: Dialed In (#10) & Astrology (#1)
$10 Exacta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1)
$2 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), (#13)
$1 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), King Congie (#3), Animal Kingdom (#11) Concealed Identity (#13)
http://www.jaanis.com/2011-preakness-stakes-contenders-odds-post-positions-picks-predictions-results-payouts-post-time-video-winner/
Link to Free PPs:
http://www1.drf.com/tc/preakness/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-preakness-stakes-pps.pdf
Other Resources
http://www.preakness.com/
http://www.drf.com/news/
Post Horse name Trainer Jockey Opening odds (to 1)
1 Astrology Steve Asmussen Mike E. Smith 15-1
I like this colts chances. You get Smith/Asmussen which is always good. The horse is 6 for 6 in the money, on the dirt lifetime. Distance should not be an issue. I dont like only 2 races in 6+ months and has faced some cheaper horses versus others in here. With that said I will be using hime for second and in some trifectas and exactas as I should be getting more than the money line here.
2 Norman Asbjornson Chris Grove Julian Pimental 30-1
Could be a home town favorite with Maryland based trainer Chris Grove. Colt has been improving up to this race and Grove has had the Preakness in mind the whole year for the horse. The problem is I just dont think he will have the talent needed to win here. No go for me.
3 King Congie Thomas Albertrani Robby Albarado 20-1
This is an interesting horse. Another one that raced better on synthetic rather than dirt. The 2 dirt starts were pretty miserable at Belmont. Ran a very close third in the last start at Keeneland, closing very late with stablemate Brilliant Speed who is skipping this race and opting for the Belmont Stakes. His works have been good since the Bluegrass and Robby Albarado might want to prove the connections of Animal Kingdom wrong after he was taken on the mount in the Derby a day before the race. I will throw in for a few trifectas and exactas, but probably not the winner here.
4 Flashpoint Wesley Ward Cornelio Velasquez 20-1
I am not sure how Cornhole can pull this one back and rate. He is pure speed, but I feel to much and will be fading in the end. The distance will the biggest issue for this Colt as 1 3/16 will be just to long. Leaving out.
5 Shackleford Dale Romans Jesus Castanon 12-1
Your Kentucky Derby leader until the last furlong. Lead the race on very slow fractions. Dont think he will be able to do that here with other speed in the race. Will be out front early with others. Dirt and distance will not be an issue. I cant put my finger on why I dont like him here or why I didnt like him in the Derby. Might throw in a Superfecta.
6 Sway Away Jeff Bonde Garrett Gomez 15-1
This horse will take more money than it should on Saturday. he finished 4th behind ArchArchArch, Nehro and Dance City last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Will be taking the blinkers off in this start to help the colt focus and run off on the start. I dont see enough in his previous starts to tell me he will win here.
7 Midnight Interlude Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 15-1
As I said in the Derby these West coasters simple stink moving over to the East coast dirt. He proved that finishing 16th in the Derby out of 19 horses. Feel this one will finish 12th out of 14 here. Throw out.
8 Dance City Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 12-1
Really want to like this horse, but he is probably going to be in speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford. Hasnt done anything wrong on the dirt which is more than you can say for others in here. Love Ramon/Pletcher combo, but is that enough to show in the money here?
9 Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo Rajiv Maragh 6-1
Liked this horse in the Derby and did finish well, a close 3rd. I like him in this race as well. The horse is younger than others in here and every race adds to experience for him. You also have to love the inspirational story with trainer Kathy Ritvo getting a heart transplant. Using for 3rd.
10 Dialed In Nick Zito Julien Leparoux 9-2
My pick in the Derby and did well with a horrible trip. I am putting a line through the Derby race as it doesnt tell me anything about what this horse can really do. He finished 9th, but was squeezed horribly in the start and never had a chance., Once he got some room was closing well. Should be in MUCH better shape here for the Preakness. Has done nothing wrong on the dirt going 3 for 5. My pick to win .again, but if the price is to short look elsewhere for value.
11 Animal Kingdom H. Graham Motion John R. Velazquez 2-1
Huge winner in the Kentucky Derby. Closed well into slow fractions and that might be the problem. Wont be slow on Saturday at all. My only question for him when i capped the Derby was if he could handle the dirt. He proved that could so he is a real monster on all three surfaces. I want to use him in a few trifectas, but dont want to take such a short price to win.
12 Isnt He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal Edgar Prado 30-1
Isnt He Perfect is not that perfect. Finished 5th in the most recent race, the Jerome G2, is not what I like to see coming in here. His pedigree suggest he likes the distance, his recent results suggests he will finish last. Outta here.
13 Concealed Identity Edmond Gaudet Sheldon Russell 30-1
You always get one local yokal horse in the Preakness. The colt is 2 for 2 at Pimlico which can be a tricky track considering all other horses have NEVER raced on it. Could be a nice live long shot to use in your exotic plays.
14 Mr. Commons John Shirreffs Victor Espinoza 20-1
Colt had every reason to win in the Santa Anita Derby and didnt, finishing 3rd. Mike Smith moves off this horse to the one isnt giving me more reason to bet him here. Only starts on the synthetic and trying dirt for the first time? No thanks.
Conclusion: With the shorter distance for Preakness (1 3/16 miles) versus the Derby (1 1/4 miles) I feel it is even more important to be on or near the lead. So I will take horses that will be up front.
Predictions:
1. Dialed In
2. Astrology
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. King Congie
Others to Consider:
5. Animal Kingdom
6. Concealed Identity
7. Dance City
Bets:
WP $20: Dialed In (#10) & Astrology (#1)
$10 Exacta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1)
$2 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), (#13)
$1 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), King Congie (#3), Animal Kingdom (#11) Concealed Identity (#13)
http://www.jaanis.com/2011-preakness-stakes-contenders-odds-post-positions-picks-predictions-results-payouts-post-time-video-winner/
Comments
BEST
http://www.buzzfeed.com/gavon/macho-man-randy-savage-has-died
Has raced on dirt before.