2011 Kentucky Derby Analysis and Picks from Jaan
jaanis
Senior Member
Every year I have some fun and post my opinion on each of the Kentucky Derby entries. I will also post: 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Odds, Post Positions, Picks, Predictions, Results, Payouts, Post Time, Video, Winner
Conditions for the Derby: Trk Rcrd: (1:59.40) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.
11 CHURCHILL DOWNS SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2011 PURSE $2,000,000
1¼ Miles Dirt Age 3
CR: 104 (Par of 2:03.90)
Post time for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is 6:24, according to track officials
It could be a wet day at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Knowing that, I will be handicapping with that in mind. This years Derby has a ton of speed and plenty of horses that will appreciate the mud if Mother Natures chooses to shower that day.
Link to the PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/kyderby.pdf
Other Resources
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/
http://www.drf.com/news/
PP Horse Sire Trainer Jockey Odds
1 Archarcharch Arch W. Fires J. Court 10-1
Loved this horse until it drew the one hole. He might be forced to go to the lead because of it. He had a huge win in the Arkansas Derby last time out, which I feel is one of the better Derby prep races even though everything went right for him. Nehro (#19 who finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby) would have caught this colt if they raced in the same distance they are today, something to consider. John Court is married to the trainers daughter Will Fires which is an interesting relationship. Court has 3 wins in 6 starts with this colt. As stated I hate the post but might consider in some exotic bets as this horse can close into a hot pace. Need a lot more than 10-1 to bet this horse.
2 Brilliant Speed Dynaformer T. Albertrani J. Rosario 30-1
Big closing effort at in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland, but that was on synthetic. The Derby is on dirt and this colts form is terrible on it. This is a more of turf horse and is only racing in the Derby because of the grade 1 win in Keeneland. I am throwing him out.
3 Twice The Appeal Succesful Appeal J. Bonde C. Borel 20-1
Well this horse should be 50-1, but Bo-Rail on him, winner of the 3 of the last 4 (Street Sense-2007, Mine that Bird-2008 and last year with Super Saver) Kentucky Derbys, the odds maker understandably made him a shorter price. Another horse that will make one run, but will he be in the right position and trip to do it? The horse is peaking at the right time, loves dirt and it is Calvin. I will use in trifecta boxes for sure as I think I will get big odds.
4 Stay Thirsty Bernardini T. Pletcher R. Dominguez 20-1
Referred to as the other horse as he is Uncle Mos stable-mate. With Uncle Mo scratched it leaves Repoles Stable only entry. Dont like the horse in this spot as this horse seems to want to run shorter. Throwing him out.
5 Decisive Moment With Distinction J. Arias K. Clark 30-1
Speed and fade is all over this horse. Colt wants to be on the lead and there will be plenty of other that will out with him. Cant see this horse getting the trip it needs to win at this distance. Not for me.
6 Comma to the Top Bwana Charlie P. Miller P. Valenzuela 30-1
West coast and speed horse. Never works for the Derby. Another speed horse that will fly to the lead and then eventually give way. PVal loves moving horses to the lead but this horse wont last as his comment lines suggest: Drifted out and fade, drifted out and fade. Means the horse gets very tired. The horse wasnt even in the Derby but with recent dejections he finds his way in. Throwing out.
7 Pants On Fire Jump Start K. Breen A. Napravnik 20-1
Well everyone lady in the house will be rooting for Rosie to be the first woman jockey to win the Derby. Dont think it will happen. Had a great run in the Louisiana Derby, but I think that is one-time effort. Previous races were awful. He did beat Nehro (wise guy horse) in the Louisiana, but I am not biting.
8 Dialed In Mineshaft N. Zito J. Leparoux 4-1
Dead closer and the best horse in the horse. The thing about the Derby is the best hardly ever wins considering post draw, trip and track conditions. Luckily for Dialed In everything is in his favor here. Julian is one of the best in the business, Zito is a hall of fame trainer, this is the perfect storm! Hasnt had a bad race this year. Zito had my Derby pick last year with Ice Box who finished second in the 20 horse field. Would have won easily if he didnt have traffic issues. With Julian on Dialed in I feel he will keep the colt out of trouble and make a big run at the end. He is lightly raced so that has shown to be good in recent years. My top pick if he is not the post-time favorite. Need some better value.
9 Derby Kitten Kittens Joy M. Maker J. Castellano 30-1
With Tobys Corner dropping out the Derby, Derby Kitten gets into the Derby in the final hours. Great horse name for the Derby but the form lines dont match. His only race on dirt was terrible at Remington Park. Not using at all.
10 Twinspired Harlas Holiday M. Maker M. Smith 30-1
Another horse named to be in the Derby. Horse will like this distance and should be able to rate. Gets the hall of fame jockey Mike Smith which should help find a good trip in a 20 horse field. Very seasoned with 8 starts, but will he have enough class and like the dirt? Not really as his best starts have come on synthetic. Take your chances here.
11 Master Of Hounds Kingmambo A. Obrien G. Gomez 30-1
Very experienced in international horse. Racing in England, Ireland, Dubai and the US. Connections are great, but this will be his first race on dirt. Year after year this doesnt bode well for the horses. My issue is the horse has only ran 1 race in the 6 months. Not using.
12 Santiva Giants Causeway E. Kenneally S. Bridgmohan 30-1
Has graded stakes win at Churchill last year. Was terrible out last race on synthetic, but we are on dirt here. I think this has all the reason to improve here and will be a big price. Dont think he can win with too many prep race questions. Good connections and breed for the distance. Will use in some exotics.
13 Mucho Macho Man Macho Uno K. Ritvo R. Maragh 12-1
Like this horse. Has ran 8 times and has 2 race 1 1/8 mile experience and was strong. Some may think the distance could be an issue, I dont. last race was a little ugly, but he threw a shoe in the race. Has a little time off to be healthy. Will be able to rate, only bad thing is this horse is a June foal which means he is a little less built than his rivals that have 4-5 more months on him. I looking for this horse to be in the top 3 or 4.
14 Shackleford Forestry D. Romans J. Castanon 12-1
Ran a great Florida Derby barely getting beat but the likely post-time favorite Dialed in. No idea what he did in the Fountain of Youth stakes, but has done well on dirt for all others. He is a speed horse and has raced well at the speed favoring Gulfstream park. I have never been a fan of speed and with plenty of others doing the same I dont think he has much of a chance.
15 Midnight Interlude War Chant B. Baffert V. Espinoza 10-1
I really want to like this horse, but horses coming from the West Coast stink in the Derby. Only broke his maiden 2 races ago and then he goes and win the Santa Derby. That is a big leap forward. I dont know how this horse will run speed in maiden breaking win and then rated and beat Comma To The Top in the Santa Derby. Can he go forward again? I leaning towards no, but if you like him bet him.
16 Animal Kingdom Leroidesanimaux H. Motion R. Albarado 30-1
Horse is a closer, loves the distance, but is breed to love the turf. Once again we have no idea if he will like the dirt. Whenever you ask that kind of question when a horse is first time on dirt in the Derby. I tend to look elsewhere. If you can get past the dirt issues, then everything else is pointing to a big price that could show. With all the questions on the other horse might be a play here.
17 Soldat War Front K. McLaughlin A. Garcia 12-1
If the track is wet this horse could be gone. Probably the fastest besides Comma To The Top and with this outside post position he could find himself on the lead. I hardly ever play speed in the derby and wont be here. Looking for a horse that will rate off the pace or close and he is not it. They tried to rate him in the Florida Derby he failed miserably. Feel the same could happen here is they try it.
18 Uncle Mo Indian Charlie T. Pletcher J. Velazquez 9-2
Scratched and will not run.
19 Nehro Mineshaft S. Asmussen C. Nakatani 6-1
This is the wise guy horse this year. Lot of deep pocket players and looking for this horse to win. Ran well in both the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies, finishing 2nd, just beaten by ArchArchArch and Pants on Fire. Some added distance should help as he looks like he can rate and come off the pace. This horse is on the improve and will be 2nd or 3rd.
20 Watch Me Go Giants Causeway K. OConnell R. Bejarano 50-1
Will be very long odds here for good reason. Had a nice race in the Tampa Bay Derby, which was a weak field. Come back in the Illinois Derby and failed miserably. No thanks.
Conclusion: Look at rating and closing horses this year as the speed balls will kill themselves as well as the fact most of them cant get the 1 ¼ of a mile.
Predictions:
1. Dialed In
2. Nehro
3. Twice The Appeal
4. Mucho Macho Man
Others to Consider:
5. Animal Kingdom
6. Archarcharch
Bets:
WP $20: Dialed In (#8) & Nehro (#19)
$10 Exacta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19)
$2 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19), Twice The Appeal (#3), Mucho Macho Man (#13)
$1 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19), Twice The Appeal (#3), Mucho Macho Man (#13), Animal Kingdom (#16) Archarcharch (#1)
Conditions for the Derby: Trk Rcrd: (1:59.40) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.
11 CHURCHILL DOWNS SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2011 PURSE $2,000,000
1¼ Miles Dirt Age 3
CR: 104 (Par of 2:03.90)
Post time for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is 6:24, according to track officials
It could be a wet day at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Knowing that, I will be handicapping with that in mind. This years Derby has a ton of speed and plenty of horses that will appreciate the mud if Mother Natures chooses to shower that day.
Link to the PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/kyderby.pdf
Other Resources
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/
http://www.drf.com/news/
PP Horse Sire Trainer Jockey Odds
1 Archarcharch Arch W. Fires J. Court 10-1
Loved this horse until it drew the one hole. He might be forced to go to the lead because of it. He had a huge win in the Arkansas Derby last time out, which I feel is one of the better Derby prep races even though everything went right for him. Nehro (#19 who finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby) would have caught this colt if they raced in the same distance they are today, something to consider. John Court is married to the trainers daughter Will Fires which is an interesting relationship. Court has 3 wins in 6 starts with this colt. As stated I hate the post but might consider in some exotic bets as this horse can close into a hot pace. Need a lot more than 10-1 to bet this horse.
2 Brilliant Speed Dynaformer T. Albertrani J. Rosario 30-1
Big closing effort at in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland, but that was on synthetic. The Derby is on dirt and this colts form is terrible on it. This is a more of turf horse and is only racing in the Derby because of the grade 1 win in Keeneland. I am throwing him out.
3 Twice The Appeal Succesful Appeal J. Bonde C. Borel 20-1
Well this horse should be 50-1, but Bo-Rail on him, winner of the 3 of the last 4 (Street Sense-2007, Mine that Bird-2008 and last year with Super Saver) Kentucky Derbys, the odds maker understandably made him a shorter price. Another horse that will make one run, but will he be in the right position and trip to do it? The horse is peaking at the right time, loves dirt and it is Calvin. I will use in trifecta boxes for sure as I think I will get big odds.
4 Stay Thirsty Bernardini T. Pletcher R. Dominguez 20-1
Referred to as the other horse as he is Uncle Mos stable-mate. With Uncle Mo scratched it leaves Repoles Stable only entry. Dont like the horse in this spot as this horse seems to want to run shorter. Throwing him out.
5 Decisive Moment With Distinction J. Arias K. Clark 30-1
Speed and fade is all over this horse. Colt wants to be on the lead and there will be plenty of other that will out with him. Cant see this horse getting the trip it needs to win at this distance. Not for me.
6 Comma to the Top Bwana Charlie P. Miller P. Valenzuela 30-1
West coast and speed horse. Never works for the Derby. Another speed horse that will fly to the lead and then eventually give way. PVal loves moving horses to the lead but this horse wont last as his comment lines suggest: Drifted out and fade, drifted out and fade. Means the horse gets very tired. The horse wasnt even in the Derby but with recent dejections he finds his way in. Throwing out.
7 Pants On Fire Jump Start K. Breen A. Napravnik 20-1
Well everyone lady in the house will be rooting for Rosie to be the first woman jockey to win the Derby. Dont think it will happen. Had a great run in the Louisiana Derby, but I think that is one-time effort. Previous races were awful. He did beat Nehro (wise guy horse) in the Louisiana, but I am not biting.
8 Dialed In Mineshaft N. Zito J. Leparoux 4-1
Dead closer and the best horse in the horse. The thing about the Derby is the best hardly ever wins considering post draw, trip and track conditions. Luckily for Dialed In everything is in his favor here. Julian is one of the best in the business, Zito is a hall of fame trainer, this is the perfect storm! Hasnt had a bad race this year. Zito had my Derby pick last year with Ice Box who finished second in the 20 horse field. Would have won easily if he didnt have traffic issues. With Julian on Dialed in I feel he will keep the colt out of trouble and make a big run at the end. He is lightly raced so that has shown to be good in recent years. My top pick if he is not the post-time favorite. Need some better value.
9 Derby Kitten Kittens Joy M. Maker J. Castellano 30-1
With Tobys Corner dropping out the Derby, Derby Kitten gets into the Derby in the final hours. Great horse name for the Derby but the form lines dont match. His only race on dirt was terrible at Remington Park. Not using at all.
10 Twinspired Harlas Holiday M. Maker M. Smith 30-1
Another horse named to be in the Derby. Horse will like this distance and should be able to rate. Gets the hall of fame jockey Mike Smith which should help find a good trip in a 20 horse field. Very seasoned with 8 starts, but will he have enough class and like the dirt? Not really as his best starts have come on synthetic. Take your chances here.
11 Master Of Hounds Kingmambo A. Obrien G. Gomez 30-1
Very experienced in international horse. Racing in England, Ireland, Dubai and the US. Connections are great, but this will be his first race on dirt. Year after year this doesnt bode well for the horses. My issue is the horse has only ran 1 race in the 6 months. Not using.
12 Santiva Giants Causeway E. Kenneally S. Bridgmohan 30-1
Has graded stakes win at Churchill last year. Was terrible out last race on synthetic, but we are on dirt here. I think this has all the reason to improve here and will be a big price. Dont think he can win with too many prep race questions. Good connections and breed for the distance. Will use in some exotics.
13 Mucho Macho Man Macho Uno K. Ritvo R. Maragh 12-1
Like this horse. Has ran 8 times and has 2 race 1 1/8 mile experience and was strong. Some may think the distance could be an issue, I dont. last race was a little ugly, but he threw a shoe in the race. Has a little time off to be healthy. Will be able to rate, only bad thing is this horse is a June foal which means he is a little less built than his rivals that have 4-5 more months on him. I looking for this horse to be in the top 3 or 4.
14 Shackleford Forestry D. Romans J. Castanon 12-1
Ran a great Florida Derby barely getting beat but the likely post-time favorite Dialed in. No idea what he did in the Fountain of Youth stakes, but has done well on dirt for all others. He is a speed horse and has raced well at the speed favoring Gulfstream park. I have never been a fan of speed and with plenty of others doing the same I dont think he has much of a chance.
15 Midnight Interlude War Chant B. Baffert V. Espinoza 10-1
I really want to like this horse, but horses coming from the West Coast stink in the Derby. Only broke his maiden 2 races ago and then he goes and win the Santa Derby. That is a big leap forward. I dont know how this horse will run speed in maiden breaking win and then rated and beat Comma To The Top in the Santa Derby. Can he go forward again? I leaning towards no, but if you like him bet him.
16 Animal Kingdom Leroidesanimaux H. Motion R. Albarado 30-1
Horse is a closer, loves the distance, but is breed to love the turf. Once again we have no idea if he will like the dirt. Whenever you ask that kind of question when a horse is first time on dirt in the Derby. I tend to look elsewhere. If you can get past the dirt issues, then everything else is pointing to a big price that could show. With all the questions on the other horse might be a play here.
17 Soldat War Front K. McLaughlin A. Garcia 12-1
If the track is wet this horse could be gone. Probably the fastest besides Comma To The Top and with this outside post position he could find himself on the lead. I hardly ever play speed in the derby and wont be here. Looking for a horse that will rate off the pace or close and he is not it. They tried to rate him in the Florida Derby he failed miserably. Feel the same could happen here is they try it.
18 Uncle Mo Indian Charlie T. Pletcher J. Velazquez 9-2
Scratched and will not run.
19 Nehro Mineshaft S. Asmussen C. Nakatani 6-1
This is the wise guy horse this year. Lot of deep pocket players and looking for this horse to win. Ran well in both the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies, finishing 2nd, just beaten by ArchArchArch and Pants on Fire. Some added distance should help as he looks like he can rate and come off the pace. This horse is on the improve and will be 2nd or 3rd.
20 Watch Me Go Giants Causeway K. OConnell R. Bejarano 50-1
Will be very long odds here for good reason. Had a nice race in the Tampa Bay Derby, which was a weak field. Come back in the Illinois Derby and failed miserably. No thanks.
Conclusion: Look at rating and closing horses this year as the speed balls will kill themselves as well as the fact most of them cant get the 1 ¼ of a mile.
Predictions:
1. Dialed In
2. Nehro
3. Twice The Appeal
4. Mucho Macho Man
Others to Consider:
5. Animal Kingdom
6. Archarcharch
Bets:
WP $20: Dialed In (#8) & Nehro (#19)
$10 Exacta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19)
$2 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19), Twice The Appeal (#3), Mucho Macho Man (#13)
$1 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#8), Nehro (#19), Twice The Appeal (#3), Mucho Macho Man (#13), Animal Kingdom (#16) Archarcharch (#1)
Comments
Playing this horse across the board. Giddyup!