Special Notice & Recap
KeyElement
Banned
The daily posting of my NBA line and POD will cease after Sunday 4.4.10
The baseball season is upon us and will demand most of my attention.
There will be little left after Sunday anyway until the playoffs and I am very conservative there, as they are not easy by any means and baseball will be gaining momentum.
I hope everyone has enjoyed the lines and possibly profitted by them, as well as the daily POD. That was the intent.
At the risk of criticism, scrutiny or audit I am posting the results of what has been posted since I began this thread on 2.27.10. I have taken responsibility in the picks for all plays that were underlined, highlighted or specifically written up as a POD.
Results: 17-12-1
As for the lines posted, these are the results versus the playable lines at BookMaker at the time the post was made. It would be an enormous project to determine the results versus opening and/or closing lines, and not worth the effort, as the other study I am doing has shown me how seldom it makes a difference. Perhaps in college bb or or football, but NBA lines are seldom close enough to results to make a difference. Yes, there are occasional middles, but usually both the opening and closing lines go to the same result. Next year I may track the actual number of middles that could possibly have been hit, but I sincerely doubt it is the 1 in 20 required to break even and you would have to correctly anticipate line movement versus the opener a great deal to even have a shot. My own season recap goes back much further, but the numbers are remarkably similar.
Sides, posted here: 100-86, 54%
Totals, posted here: 99-89, 53%
If my lines were an assist to you in your own handicapping, as intended, that is what it was all about and I am glad you got productive use out of them.
Errors are possible, but there is nothing dishonest in this post. Audit if you want.
The baseball season is upon us and will demand most of my attention.
There will be little left after Sunday anyway until the playoffs and I am very conservative there, as they are not easy by any means and baseball will be gaining momentum.
I hope everyone has enjoyed the lines and possibly profitted by them, as well as the daily POD. That was the intent.
At the risk of criticism, scrutiny or audit I am posting the results of what has been posted since I began this thread on 2.27.10. I have taken responsibility in the picks for all plays that were underlined, highlighted or specifically written up as a POD.
Results: 17-12-1
As for the lines posted, these are the results versus the playable lines at BookMaker at the time the post was made. It would be an enormous project to determine the results versus opening and/or closing lines, and not worth the effort, as the other study I am doing has shown me how seldom it makes a difference. Perhaps in college bb or or football, but NBA lines are seldom close enough to results to make a difference. Yes, there are occasional middles, but usually both the opening and closing lines go to the same result. Next year I may track the actual number of middles that could possibly have been hit, but I sincerely doubt it is the 1 in 20 required to break even and you would have to correctly anticipate line movement versus the opener a great deal to even have a shot. My own season recap goes back much further, but the numbers are remarkably similar.
Sides, posted here: 100-86, 54%
Totals, posted here: 99-89, 53%
If my lines were an assist to you in your own handicapping, as intended, that is what it was all about and I am glad you got productive use out of them.
Errors are possible, but there is nothing dishonest in this post. Audit if you want.
Comments
No handicapper/poster should ever be required to keep records of their plays against any line other than what is current and/or widely available at time of post/release.
However, I must vehemently disagree with your statements (in bold) above. You are suggesting that it does not matter what line you get, opening, close, or anything inbetween, your results will be almost the same. That is just not the case. Every 1/2 point gained or lost will significantly impact your bottom line over the long run. All sports bettors (pro, amatuer, etc.) should be reminded constantly how important it is to get the best number possible on all wagers. The NBA is certainly no exception.
I think it would lend more credibility to yourself and be much more beneficial for readers/followers if you kept an ongoing running record instead of posting one at the end of a chosen cycle. This would also make it much easier for anyone to "audit" your recordkeeping if needed.
I'd love to buy you, Ed, Calzone, Sunbelter, and a host of others a beer for all of your work.
You guys are invaluable
By way of another example. Goats has repeatedly stated that NBA lines are never off by 10 points. That is true, since the books never have to adjust lines by 10 points to balance their books, but results are very frequently off by 10 or more versus either the opener or closer or both, most often negating the effect of any movement.
Of course we shop for the best lines and I would never disparage the value of that, but watch and see how seldom it makes a difference, that is the shocking part.
Updates will be daily through Sunday with a final recap Monday.
When you are dealing with edges of 53% and 54%, paying that extra juice (or enduring those extra pushes/losses) will always make a big difference.
If you push just one game instead of winning over 30 games, it is the difference between 16-14 (winning) and 15-14 (losing).
Key's opinions on the subject of how far lines are off and how little lines matter are just flat out wrong. This isn't something that needs to be proven or debated.
Goats,
I recommend you read the above CAREFULLY, and revise and extend your remarks.
Key EXPLICITLY said you were correct the lines ARE NOT off by 10 points.
Key DID SAY that the game RESULTS are frequently off by 10 points from the line.
Just a couple of current examples: Tonight...Totonto -10 earlier today at 5 Dimes earlier today...result: Toronto 114 - 92 LA Clippers...Result 12 points from line...Yet the total on that game was within 1 pt...205 vs 206... Just finished...LA Lakver v. Atlanta (-1)...final score Atlanta 109 - 92 LA Lakers...result pretty close, 16 points. I don't have a clue if 5Dimes balanced their books (meaning the line was correct or incorrect), yet the lines DID NOT reflect/predict the result, NOR is that the function of the line.
IF you are going to play the semantical game, and you are the Super Moderator and can do as you please, at least quote and represent remarks accurately.
Then you again go to absolutes..."This isn't something that needs to be proven or debated." ... A line with 1/2 point IS ALWAYS wrong as to result, may or may not be wrong from the bookmaking business perspective. If it is wrong for the bookmaker it gets adjusted.
Sorry to go off on a rant, yet this same semantical crap happened several weeks ago. I think Key did say the line was wrong. Now, do you really think that Key was making a bookmaking business criticism? I doubt even one reader, who read Key's comment, interpreted that comment to mean the Bookmaker was making a bad business judgement. I suspect most interpreted those imprecise words to mean that in Key's opinion the line should have been something else and was a good opportunity to take advantage of.
Regards,
I am, therfore, looking forward to KeyElement's baseball selections with great anticipation and with, of course, proper money management on my part.
I don't even know what you are saying here? The bigger the sample size the better when trying to determine push rates or the value of a 1/2 point in the NBA.
The point I am trying to make is that which line you get on a particular NBA game (opening, closing, or anything inbetween) will absolutely make a difference in your bottom line.
There is empirical data, some of which has already been posted in this thread, that proves this. It is not up for argument or dispute.
Given this, you should not be giving such poor advice to the contrary, or saying things like you are surprised how seldom line movement comes into play.
Even if it mattered (a loss instead of a win) just 1% of the time, it would turn a 54% (54-46) handicapper into a 53% (53-47) handicapper. If it mattered 5% of the time it would turn a 54% handicapper into a (49-51) 49% handicapper. You said that it does not matter at least 90% of the time, leaving the possibility for it to matter 10% of the time. That is a huge difference and should not be understated.
There is no such thing as a result being way off!
Shit happens. Results can be distributed all over the place. It does not mean the original line was bad or off.
Here is an example using Poker.
AA vs KK preflop
AA is -450
KK is +350
If KK gets lucky and wins, it does not mean the line was "way off"!
Goats is correct.
There is an abundance of empirical evidence regarding some of the topics being discussed in this thread. There are some things that are absolute, and should not have to be debated.
No one has yet to call into question any of Key's subjective beliefs.
This has been explained to you several times now. Margin of victory does not equate to the line being off (for your purposes or the bookmaker's purposes).
I'm sure I gave this example before. If the same two teams play 100 times on the same court and team A wins 50 times by 10 and team B wins 50 times by 10, what's the correct line? It's PK, despite every result being "10 points off" according to your definition. You have no edge playing either side at PK, but you're telling us the line is often off by 10. In this example, the line is actually dead on.
I'm not trying to convince to you and this will be my last explanation. As I said before, these are commonly accepted notions that don't need to be debated.
At the end of the day, regardless of how many egos want to get stroked in this thread, you are a reputable capper and are appreciated for the work you do. I frequently check your posts to compare your line to the oddsmakers. You are a valuable asset to this site and are appreciated for it.
This is just my opinion and please take it as is. I understand that this forum wanted to go in a different direction a few months ago. There are definitely guys in here with statistical skills well beyond most of our comprehensions. But that doesn't mean that all stats trump the point Key is trying to make. However, when someone is trying to do good for the forum and give a solid contribution it seems like the mods come in and challenge them and try to discredit them.
Constructive arguing is good but there is a line you cross. I haven't said much in the past but it just seems like it keeps happening. I have respect for anyone that I can learn something from. However, if you come off like a jackass in trying to prove your point then you lose lots of credbility. There are constructive ways to do this and frankly in this post and in some others, I don't feel like they have been used.
If I was Key, I wouldn't waste one more second of my time on this BS. He provides valuable info to this forum and needs to be recognized as an asset and not discredited on a great contribution.
There is something called the half-point calculator (you can google it), it's based on historical results and estimates what half points are worth based on how often the game lands on specific numbers - I believe Stanford Wong did this with NFL games in his Sharp Sports Betting book if you want a good explanation of how it works. You might be surprised how much those half points are worth.
I'd recommend everyone reading and rereading Ed's and Goat's posts, they are 100% correct.
If someone is giving bad advice, or spreading misinformation, it is the job of all members, especially the mods, to refute it. That is what makes a good forum. If you think doing so is "B.S." then by all means move along to another forum. Otherwise, take in the information being shared, ask questions if you don't understand something, and try to use it to your benefit.
OK, for sake of discussion I'll accept that in self-contained units these concepts may well be proven. In fact, I don't think I have ever said, or never intended to dispute the concepts as being valuable as general propositions or as worthwhile additions to one's sports betting strategy.
Yet, I have a great deal of problems with absolutism with which they are advocated. And, IMHO, much of the discussion seems semantical, or maybe just definitional.
Ed, picks games at a stellar rate. Since the line is never wrong, on what basis is Ed making those picks? I suspect that Ed sees an advantage to one proposition over the other. I guess this get's to a definitional issue. Ed either thinks the result will vary from the line, OR there is more value to a given proposition then is reflected in the line. That is a analytical and judgment at which Ed excells. Is it wrong to say colloqually "Ed thinks the line is incorrect?". Or is there some better verbage to describe that situation.
Again, as a general concept no argument here, as far as that goes, neither is there any argument about 1/2 points, OR getting the best line available or +EV.
Yet what is missing from these absolutes is the ONE random element which makes these ABSOLUTE Theories less absolute in application. I submit that the one random element is the "human being" applying the theories.
My own opinion is that Money Management and Discipline has a far greater impact for good or ill on a sport's bettors bankroll than "perfect" application of these theories. And, even with "perfect" application of these theories, a lack of Money Management or Discipline can quickly or easily eliminate any mathematical advantages gained or on offer.
So, that is why I resist the absolutist theories, not because they do not have merit as concepts, rather that they seem to be sold as Nirvana. Once the "human" applicator is educated/managed to close to perfection can these theories approach perfection.
Regards,
This is just one basic concept that most bettors can easily apply to their own betting. It is just one piece of the puzzle needed to become a sucessful bettor. There are certainly other concepts such as money management and handicapping that are critical also and become a lot more subjective because there are many different methods that can be effective.
My point in first post is that you guys come off rather arrogant. I've been a member for awhile, been a client, and respect what you do on the hardwood. I was trying to point out an observation that I've noticed since the transition. I'm trying to learn here as much as I can but there is a way to use tact in a rebuttal and sometimes that is missed.
And I wasn't referring to the content as BS but rather the arrogance of some of the responses to a guy who is trying to add some value.
It is not like KeyElement or others in this thread are making an effort to learn and understand what we are saying. They are not asking questions, they just come back with bogus arguments and more misinformation. That is a big part of the problem.
If feathers have to get ruffled now and then, so be it. The important thing is that the information presented is correct.
Its like the radio. They repeat the news every 10 minutes because their audience is always changing. The forum probably turns over a decent percentage a few times a year and with so many posts a day, it is easy to miss important ones if you don't get on everyday.