Betting Talk

Key's NBA Line Wednesday 3.31.10

KeyElementKeyElement Banned
edited April 2010 in Sports Betting
Charlotte, -4.5, 189.5
Cleveland, -8, 186.5
Atlanta, -5.5, 194.5
Toronto, -8.5, 211
Boston, +1, 195.5
New Jersey, +11, 208.5
Detroit, +5.5, 195
New Orleans, -1.5, 203
Minnesota, +1, 211
Memphis, -4, 209.5
San Antonio, -5, 200
Utah, -7.5, 224.5
Portland, -4, 199

I may have several entries today so it may be wise to check again before the games tip off. The POD will be up when I feel the time is right, but there may be other subjects to address.

Comments

  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Knicks +11
    Confirmed LIVE at BookMaker 945 AM, PDT
    back with the write up in a few
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    I suppose a guy (and one probably will) could make a case for the Big Bad Wolf over Little Red Riding Hood or Goliath over David, but I have managed to ignore that and will continue to do so. Unfortunately what we do is neither a fairy tale nor a biblical story and laying 11 points in the NBA is seldom a wise thing to do. Double digit favorites do not have sterling records and the Trailblazers are not exempt, being just 2-4 ATS in that category. The bettor should also be aware both covers were versus Minnesota very early in the season when the Timberwolves were 1-5 with their only win at home over New Jersey and 13 days later when the Timberwolves were 1-12 on their way to a 1-15 start with the only win being over New Jersey, on their way to a 1-18 start. Neither of those teams is that bad anymore but the evidence is clear that the Trailblazers caught extremely weak competition the two and only times they covered double digits. They failed to cover double digits, at home, versus Detroit New Jersey, Memphis and Washington. Those are teams the Knicks can play with any day of the week. At this time I rate the Knicks with a better probability of covering a spread, any spread, than I do the Trailblazers and anything over my stated personal line of 4 is a gift. We would look good at +10 but some guy with too much disposable income has again given us a bonus point at +11.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Thx Key!
  • Tkauffman09Tkauffman09 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key, can you please help me understand your system? I somewhat get it, but am still a little curious. Are these the lines that YOU predict? and then you compare them to the posted lines, and look for any discrepancies? Thank you for your help.
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Tkauffman09 wrote:
    Key, can you please help me understand your system? I somewhat get it, but am still a little curious. Are these the lines that YOU predict? and then you compare them to the posted lines, and look for any discrepancies? Thank you for your help.
    Correct, I create my own lines to steer myself, and others, in the right direction. Nothing you see here is a variance or in any way based on the bookmakers lines.
  • Tkauffman09Tkauffman09 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Thanks for your help!
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited March 2010
    in a hole early, can the bricks come back?
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Of course they can Chase, it's an NBA game, anything can happen. As I write this they are 1 point off the spread, but in an NBA game it wouldn't matter if it was 10, there are over 32 minutes to go, an eternity in the NBA.
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited March 2010
    My fault for tailing, just thought the blazers might have been a trap only being an 11 point favorite. Laying DD's isn't wise unless it's against the knicks on the road. Anything under 20 points should be a auto hammer IMO.
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited March 2010
    or the better bet would be to wait until they were down 22-25 at the half, then take the knicks as dogs
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited April 2010
    ChaseG, I really don't know why you bother yourself with this thread as you have overwhelming faith in huge favorites. Of course that is your choice, but I too would like to see the Knicks +20 in all or any of their road games. Going into last night the highest they had been all season was +12.5 and compiled an 8-3 ATS overall record and 7-3 ATS on the road. The two conference leaders, highly respected as probably the best teams in the league, are Cleveland and LA Lakers, who are 11-16 and 6-14 ATS as double digit favorites. Playing on double digit favorites in the NBA is financial suicide and playing on double digit dogs is a gold mine, so please let me know when you find a book that makes a -20 line on an NBA game.
  • SilvaggioSilvaggio Junior Member
    edited April 2010
    Chase man just shut up...Keys lines have been pretty damn good lately..I follow him most nights and last week he was on, won every bet i took from him...I didn't follow his pick every time but I looked over his lines and I'd say 60% at least he gets the numbers close enough for a win and sway my decision...keep up the good work key
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