Ufc 111
tipton
Senior Member
all lines taken from 5dimes
GSP/Hardy - Hardy has a punchers chance, but GSP isnt dumb enough to stand he will take him down within the first 30 seconds and pound him out. I think it is worth betting on GSP finishing the fight in either round 1, 2 or 3. All 3 are over +300 odds. I think he will finish the fight in round 2. GSP to win in round 2 +365. GSP / Hardy wont start round 4 is -160. Id be stunned if this fight went that long how the fuck is Hardy going to remain upright? If BJ Penn cant stop a takedown from GSP and GSP finished Penn regardless of the greasegate there is no way in hell Hardy stays in this fight that long unless he lands a really lucky punch. I dont see that happening since GSP has trained with greg Jackson he never stands and uses his superior wrestling. Hardy is a one dimensional striker this is a huge huge huge mistmatch.
Carwin/Mir since the beginning I have been all about Mir in this fight but I am a bit uncertain now just based on recent trends with these up and coming fighters. I would not go big on this but my theory is that Carwin has beat absolutely nobody. Mir is a veteran who appears driven to rematch Lesnar in all interviews he gives. He seems to have changed his career. Carwin has never fought out of the first round but he trains in high alt in Denver and was a champion wrestler. He has huge power. Carwin has huge huge power and that is scary here. I dont think he will be caught by surprise by Mir and his striking like Kongo and big Nog were. If it stays standing he could be in trouble. Small play on Mir I would not go big on this must respect the power of Carwin and the possibility that he will KO Mir, or stun him and pound him out on the ground. I see Mir winning via submission somehow though.
Fitch / Saunders small play on Fitch to finish inside distance at +327. He is determined to finish the fight which he talked about in interviews leading up to this since he has been criticized of not finishing and wants a title fight with GSP. Many of Fitchs recent fights have gone to decision so I think this line is off for a guy who is a -350 favorite. Saunders got finished by Swick via ground and pound and I think Fitch will do the same. Fitch is a tough motherfucker and they are giving him little chance to finish yet he is a -350 favorite that line is off. Also, Saunders was preparing to stand and bang with Alves whom he didnt have to worry much about being taken down. Now he is fighting Fitch on a few days notice and didnt have time to prepare to stop takedowns and the smothering attack Fitch wins with. To much value in +327 to win inside distance not to bet it.
Camoes / Pellegrino I think Camoes is a live dog at +185 and should win this fight by submission. Pellegrino has been subbed a few times before I think Camoes will come through.
Miller / Bocek small play on Miller to win inside distance at -110
GSP/Hardy - Hardy has a punchers chance, but GSP isnt dumb enough to stand he will take him down within the first 30 seconds and pound him out. I think it is worth betting on GSP finishing the fight in either round 1, 2 or 3. All 3 are over +300 odds. I think he will finish the fight in round 2. GSP to win in round 2 +365. GSP / Hardy wont start round 4 is -160. Id be stunned if this fight went that long how the fuck is Hardy going to remain upright? If BJ Penn cant stop a takedown from GSP and GSP finished Penn regardless of the greasegate there is no way in hell Hardy stays in this fight that long unless he lands a really lucky punch. I dont see that happening since GSP has trained with greg Jackson he never stands and uses his superior wrestling. Hardy is a one dimensional striker this is a huge huge huge mistmatch.
Carwin/Mir since the beginning I have been all about Mir in this fight but I am a bit uncertain now just based on recent trends with these up and coming fighters. I would not go big on this but my theory is that Carwin has beat absolutely nobody. Mir is a veteran who appears driven to rematch Lesnar in all interviews he gives. He seems to have changed his career. Carwin has never fought out of the first round but he trains in high alt in Denver and was a champion wrestler. He has huge power. Carwin has huge huge power and that is scary here. I dont think he will be caught by surprise by Mir and his striking like Kongo and big Nog were. If it stays standing he could be in trouble. Small play on Mir I would not go big on this must respect the power of Carwin and the possibility that he will KO Mir, or stun him and pound him out on the ground. I see Mir winning via submission somehow though.
Fitch / Saunders small play on Fitch to finish inside distance at +327. He is determined to finish the fight which he talked about in interviews leading up to this since he has been criticized of not finishing and wants a title fight with GSP. Many of Fitchs recent fights have gone to decision so I think this line is off for a guy who is a -350 favorite. Saunders got finished by Swick via ground and pound and I think Fitch will do the same. Fitch is a tough motherfucker and they are giving him little chance to finish yet he is a -350 favorite that line is off. Also, Saunders was preparing to stand and bang with Alves whom he didnt have to worry much about being taken down. Now he is fighting Fitch on a few days notice and didnt have time to prepare to stop takedowns and the smothering attack Fitch wins with. To much value in +327 to win inside distance not to bet it.
Camoes / Pellegrino I think Camoes is a live dog at +185 and should win this fight by submission. Pellegrino has been subbed a few times before I think Camoes will come through.
Miller / Bocek small play on Miller to win inside distance at -110