Betting Talk

+EV Service

DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
edited March 2010 in Sports Betting
I am still having difficulty finding a mathematical formula which tells me which games/lines are +EV.

Is there a service which does this on a daily basis for all/appripriate games?

Regards,

Comments

  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    I'm not sure I understand your question.

    +EV means your bet has a positive expected value, meaning it's a profitable wager. No one call tell you what bets are DEFINITELY +EV, you can only estimate that they are because of handicappping, following someone you expect to win, using the market as an indicator, etc.

    If I'm misunderstanding your question, please clarify.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Goats wrote:
    I'm not sure I understand your question.

    +EV means your bet has a positive expected value, meaning it's a profitable wager. No one call tell you what bets are DEFINITELY +EV, you can only estimate that they are because of handicappping, following someone you expect to win, using the market as an indicator, etc.

    If I'm misunderstanding your question, please clarify.

    Thanks Goats,

    I suspected that was the answer. I thought I got a sniff of that from a post from brmapes last week.

    Just so I understand correctly. the +EV unfortunately relies on my personal ability to accurately assess the probability of Team X +4 (-110)?

    Regards,
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited March 2010
    And if you bet +4 and ut closed +2 for example it would likely be +EV.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    Dragonswirl wrote:
    Thanks Goats,

    I suspected that was the answer. I thought I got a sniff of that from a post from brmapes last week.

    Just so I understand correctly. the +EV unfortunately relies on my personal ability to accurately assess the probability of Team X +4 (-110)?

    Regards,

    Or your personal ability to accurately judge someone who offers their picks (either for free or for a fee)... but yes, you get the idea.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Thanks, horn & Goats,

    I got fouled up on the mathematically certainty, of which my abilities will NEVER qualify favorably.

    Now to a different question.

    I play 3 team Soccer Draw Round Robins. -EV x10,000. Generally, I make these plays from mid-January through mid-end of March as trends dictate.

    The general proposition is that IF ALL 3 teams win it should pay @15-1 (60-70 units). Generally IF 2 of 3 win it pays @1.75/2+-1.

    I am doing this from memory (figured this out 3 weeks ago), BUT in the month of February I played 27/28 of these at 4 units each. To a net profit of over 200 units. I think I had 4 with all 3, 6/7 of 2 of 3 and the rest 0 for 3.

    On each round robin I have NO expectation that that particular Round Robin will produce anything, yet over 3/4 years of plays I have a ROI of 2.00+

    Is this a EV evaluation or something else?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    Dragonswirl wrote:
    Thanks, horn & Goats,

    I got fouled up on the mathematically certainty, of which my abilities will NEVER qualify favorably.

    Now to a different question.

    I play 3 team Soccer Draw Round Robins. -EV x10,000. Generally, I make these plays from mid-January through mid-end of March as trends dictate.

    The general proposition is that IF ALL 3 teams win it should pay @15-1 (60-70 units). Generally IF 2 of 3 win it pays @1.75/2+-1.

    I am doing this from memory (figured this out 3 weeks ago), BUT in the month of February I played 27/28 of these at 4 units each. To a net profit of over 200 units. I think I had 4 with all 3, 6/7 of 2 of 3 and the rest 0 for 3.

    On each round robin I have NO expectation that that particular Round Robin will produce anything, yet over 3/4 years of plays I have a ROI of 2.00+

    Is this a EV evaluation or something else?

    There are two things to examine here... the draw bets themselves and the use of round-robins to make these bets.

    If you looked at a certain subset of games (the time frame, certain leagues, whatever it is) over the long-run (going back 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc.) and determined that the subset is profitable and believe it will continue going forward, then yes, that would be a way to evaluate EV.

    As for playing them in round-robin parlays, that's a different issue. Parlaying +EV bets is still +EV, but it increases variance and decreases ROI (it's cutting into your EV). Unless the bets are correlated, there's no mathematical reason for parlays, round-robin or otherwise. You are better off playing the bets individually for a larger amount (sound money-management says you should be betting more on straight bets than parlays because the odds are lower as is the variance).

    Hope this helps.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Goats wrote:
    There are two things to examine here... the draw bets themselves and the use of round-robins to make these bets.

    As for playing them in round-robin parlays, that's a different issue. Parlaying +EV bets is still +EV, but it increases variance and decreases ROI (it's cutting into your EV). Unless the bets are correlated, there's no mathematical reason for parlays, round-robin or otherwise. You are better off playing the bets individually for a larger amount (sound money-management says you should be betting more on straight bets than parlays because the odds are lower as is the variance).

    Hope this helps.

    Goats,

    Thanks for your response, it makes sense. It's funny, but I ultimately ended up using the round robin, particularly paying the extra unit for the 3 teamer rather than just 3 2-teamers because it proved to be the best vehicle I could find to minimize risk while maximizing rewards.

    Draws are generally frustrating, yet a couple of weeks ago, had ALL 3 games draw in extra time, on Saturday had ALL 3 games go down to scores in extra time...Such is Life.

    I am still at 2.00+ ROI this year, yet my previous go-to draw Teams/Leagues have been less consistant and trending this season. This season my 3 primary draw Leagues Spain 2, France 2 & Italy 2, while having similar aggrigate draws to past years, have a greater diversity among ALL teams than the clustering among a smaller segment of teams in the past couple of years. I'm getting to the end of this years plays(trend seems to have gone to chop, it always does), will look at Finland in late summer when that League tends to follow form/expectations for about 6 weeks.

    Regards,
  • jackson21jackson21 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Your EV goes down the more you have to pay for the bet - - -....example ; going 5-5 at -110 ...is -50.00$ ....going 5-5 @ -120 is -100.00 $.........obvious observation,I know, but some don't take this into consideration....price does strongly affect your bottom line EV......conversely going 5-5 @ +120 ......+100.00
  • lakers22lakers22 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I love this shit..Highly intelligent discussion that i very much enjoy reading about..The math side of things is complex and at times difficult for me to follow, not because i don't understand math but i'm not versed in the subject area...is there a good read out there that will further educate me in the language you fellas are speaking about..any help much appreciated...
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    lakers22 wrote:
    I love this shit..Highly intelligent discussion that i very much enjoy reading about..The math side of things is complex and at times difficult for me to follow, not because i don't understand math but i'm not versed in the subject area...is there a good read out there that will further educate me in the language you fellas are speaking about..any help much appreciated...

    Try Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao.

    Shameless plug: You might find a short quote from someone you know in the former.
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