Betting Talk

Key's NBA Line Tuesday 3-23-10

KeyElementKeyElement Banned
edited March 2010 in Sports Betting
Wizards, +4.5, 183
Knicks, pk, 204.5
Pistons, +6.5, 213.5
Mavericks, -4, 214

We have an exact match on my total versus the opening number at Washington. I can have faith in the 4.5 spread, but that number opened at 5.5 and is slowly climbing toward 6.5. Not a lot of wiggle room there so let's be patient and see how far it goes. Other lines are on the move also and I will call my shot on a POD when the best play is at the peak margin, at least that is the idea. :)

Comments

  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Pacers +4 and OVER 205, back with the write up in a few minutes
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Pacers +4

    One of the best dogs you can play at this time, the Pacers hang in there with everybody and occasionally stun one of the better teams, i.e. Oklahoma City just two days ago. The Pistons rarely pull a shocker but do try to keep up, as they did in Indianapolis scoring 102 points to only lose by 4. Of course the betting public places huge faith in the home court and also the concept of reversal when teams play each other again in a short time at the other venue, but the Pistons really don't have much going for them these days and that leads us to...........

    Pacers-Pistons OVER 205

    The Pistons defense is a mere shadow of what it was a year or two ago and recently they can't stop anyone. While scoring 97.7 ppg they are still averaging a 10.8 ppg loss over the course of their last 10 and a defense that surrenders 108.5 ppg to an offense that scores 102.2 ppg does not have a very good chance of keeping the score down. With or without Ben Wallace the defense still is not what it once was, so you try to keep up on the scoreboard and hope it is not as embarrassing as the 79 you scored against the Cavaliers. You can probably do that since noone is going to confuse the Pacers defense (104.9 ppg recently) with the Cavs defense (95.8 ppg recently). If the Pistons defense were what it once was perhaps they could control the pace, but that ain't the case and this one flies over the 205 with an ouright win by the Pacers, let's say around 110-104.
  • truushottruushot Member
    edited March 2010
    5 dimes and bodog lines are already 207
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    205 is still widely available, including Bookmaker, which Ed likes to use as a control factor.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    KeyElement wrote:
    205 is still widely available, including Bookmaker, which Ed likes to use as a control factor.

    The line steamed around the time of your original pick post (11:27 et) but was long gone by this post, including at Bookmaker. Maybe someone with a real-time lines service will post some histories.

    Nothing wrong with the line moving as you were posting, that happens, not your fault, but saying it was still WA over 20 minutes later is incorrect.
  • The GoatThe Goat Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    still worth a play at 207?
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key, based on your write-up I presume Indiana Over 101.5 (-110) 5 Dimes looks reasonable?

    Regards,
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    Goats is correct, the line actually started to steam at 8:23am PST and was up to 206.5-207.5 everywhere (including Bookmaker) at 8:27am PST when KeyElement posted the play.

    KeyElement, I am not sure what source you are using to get your lines but please double check them in the future. You posted the same incorrect info in three different posts in this thread.

    Bookmaker
    03/22 11:34:10am #655 Indiana 205
    03/23 08:23:23am #655 Indiana 206
    03/23 08:25:28am #655 Indiana 206½
    03/23 08:44:13am #655 Indiana 207

    Greek
    03/22 11:40:05am #655 Indiana 205
    03/23 08:23:07am #655 Indiana 205½
    03/23 08:23:27am #655 Indiana 206
    03/23 08:23:31am #655 Indiana 206½
    03/23 08:23:35am #655 Indiana 207
    03/23 08:56:42am #655 Indiana 207½
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Dragonswirl wrote:
    Key, based on your write-up I presume Indiana Over 101.5 (-110) 5 Dimes looks reasonable?

    Regards,
    Yes
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    The original post without the write up was 19 minutes ahead of the rise at Bookmaker, but I can live with 207 easily enough. I do not suggest laying more. The +4 has been solid as a rock, play that.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    KeyElement wrote:
    The original post without the write up was 19 minutes ahead of the rise at Bookmaker, but I can live with 207 easily enough. I do not suggest laying more. The +4 has been solid as a rock, play that.

    Key, you posted 205 first at 8:27am, then with write-up at 8:49am, then again claimed it was widely available at 8:51am.

    As you can see from the Bookmaker line history, 205 was not available at any of the times you posted.

    Bookmaker
    03/22 11:34:10am #655 Indiana 205
    03/23 08:23:23am #655 Indiana 206
    03/23 08:25:28am #655 Indiana 206½
    03/23 08:44:13am #655 Indiana 207
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    OK, scratch it, no play, no argument
  • ggm1976ggm1976 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key, please keep up the good work, u have done well and have helped me win some money. Don't get frustrated with others on here - u r one of the best handicappers on here! Thanks again!
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    It doesn't really matter to me if you make it a play or not as you don't seem to be keeping a record of your posted plays anyway. I just want you to make more of an effort to be accurate with your line information. I could easily understand the first post as the line had just changed 4 minutes prior, but you posted the same incorrect line two more times even after the movement had been brought to your attention by another poster.
  • truushottruushot Member
    edited March 2010
    RightAngle wrote:
    It doesn't really matter to me if you make it a play or not as you don't seem to be keeping a record of your posted plays anyway. I just want you to make more of an effort to be accurate with your line information. I could easily understand the first post as the line had just changed 4 minutes prior, but you posted the same incorrect line two more times even after the movement had been brought to your attention by another poster.

    Isn't it one of the rules to keep records on what you recommend? I see a lot of people giving picks many of them on both sides of the bets. It would be nice if everyone kept records for all to see.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited March 2010
    truushot wrote:
    Isn't it one of the rules to keep records on what you recommend? I see a lot of people giving picks many of them on both sides of the bets. It would be nice if everyone kept records for all to see.

    Keeping a record is encouraged, but not mandatory.

    There are some revised record keeping guidelines at the top of the page made into a sticky thread if you have any further inquiries in regards to record keeping and grading. Hope this helps.
  • mltn1010mltn1010 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Hey Ed,

    I was wondering where did you get the line movements from. Is there a website with this information for The Greek?

    Thanks!
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited March 2010
    Odds services like Don Best and Sports Options provide line history for any game.
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    sbr has similar line movements/times for each book also, not as in depth as edwards but it does the job
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